Peter Olofsson, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics at Trinity University, USA. An active researcher in the field of applied probability and an experienced teacher, Dr. Olofsson is the author of Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition, also published by Wiley.

“The book is an ideal reference for anyone who would like to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as well as a useful supplementary textbook for students in any course dealing with probability.” (Zentralblatt MATH, 1 June 2015)

• Preface ixPreface to the First Edition xi1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1The Probabilist 1The Probabilist’s Toys and Language 4The Probabilist’s Rule Book 10Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 15Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20Liar, Liar 25Car Dealers and Color Blindness 29Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 34Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 40The Von Trapps and The Binomial Distribution 45Final Word 512 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 53Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 53Goats and Gloats 58Happy Birthday 61Typical Atypicalities 66The British Snob and I 72Strategery 75Final Word 783 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 79Probable Improbabilities 79Saddam and I 83Taking Tiny Risks 89A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 91Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 93Clumps in Space 98Final Word 1004 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 101Driving Miss Daisy 101Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 104Bayes and My Green Card 107Objection Your Honor 112Ornithology 122Final Word 1255 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 127Great Expectations 127The Price is Right (Maybe) 134Blood, Sweat, and Theory 137Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 140Expect the Unexpected 145Exponential Growth toward Extinction 149Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 159Mean, Median, Mode 165Deviant Behavior 171Final Word 1766 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 177Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 177Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 181Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 188Let’s Get Serious 195Bells and Bread 200How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 204Final Word 2067 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 209French Letters 209Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 214Craps: Not so Dicey after All 219Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 222Math for Losers 227Win Money and Lose Friends 234Final Word 2458 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 247Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 2474 Out of 10 Like the President 19 Times Out of 20 251Polls Gone Wild 257The Silver Lining 262The Lawsuit and the Lurker 265Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 271Snooping in the Abbot’s Garden 278Final Word 2849 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 285Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 285Random and Not-So-Random Digits 293Number One is Number One 294Is Random Really Random? 297Final Word 302Index 305

Peter Olofsson, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics at Trinity University, USA. An active researcher in the field of applied probability and an experienced teacher, Dr. Olofsson is the author of Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition, also published by Wiley.

“The book is an ideal reference for anyone who would like to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as well as a useful supplementary textbook for students in any course dealing with probability.” (Zentralblatt MATH, 1 June 2015)

• Preface ixPreface to the First Edition xi1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1The Probabilist 1The Probabilist’s Toys and Language 4The Probabilist’s Rule Book 10Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 15Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20Liar, Liar 25Car Dealers and Color Blindness 29Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 34Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 40The Von Trapps and The Binomial Distribution 45Final Word 512 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 53Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 53Goats and Gloats 58Happy Birthday 61Typical Atypicalities 66The British Snob and I 72Strategery 75Final Word 783 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 79Probable Improbabilities 79Saddam and I 83Taking Tiny Risks 89A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 91Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 93Clumps in Space 98Final Word 1004 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 101Driving Miss Daisy 101Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 104Bayes and My Green Card 107Objection Your Honor 112Ornithology 122Final Word 1255 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 127Great Expectations 127The Price is Right (Maybe) 134Blood, Sweat, and Theory 137Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 140Expect the Unexpected 145Exponential Growth toward Extinction 149Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 159Mean, Median, Mode 165Deviant Behavior 171Final Word 1766 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 177Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 177Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 181Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 188Let’s Get Serious 195Bells and Bread 200How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 204Final Word 2067 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 209French Letters 209Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 214Craps: Not so Dicey after All 219Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 222Math for Losers 227Win Money and Lose Friends 234Final Word 2458 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 247Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 2474 Out of 10 Like the President 19 Times Out of 20 251Polls Gone Wild 257The Silver Lining 262The Lawsuit and the Lurker 265Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 271Snooping in the Abbot’s Garden 278Final Word 2849 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 285Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 285Random and Not-So-Random Digits 293Number One is Number One 294Is Random Really Random? 297Final Word 302Index 305

Peter Olofsson, PhD, is Professor in the Department of Mathematics at Trinity University, USA. An active researcher in the field of applied probability and an experienced teacher, Dr. Olofsson is the author of Probability, Statistics, and Stochastic Processes, Second Edition, also published by Wiley.

“The book is an ideal reference for anyone who would like to obtain a better understanding of the mathematics of chance, as well as a useful supplementary textbook for students in any course dealing with probability.” (Zentralblatt MATH, 1 June 2015)

• Preface ixPreface to the First Edition xi1 Computing Probabilities: Right Ways and Wrong Ways 1The Probabilist 1The Probabilist’s Toys and Language 4The Probabilist’s Rule Book 10Independence, Airplanes, and Russian Peasants 15Conditional Probability, Swedish TV, and British Courts 20Liar, Liar 25Car Dealers and Color Blindness 29Shuttlecocks and Spaghetti Westerns 34Combinatorics, Pastrami, and Poetry 40The Von Trapps and The Binomial Distribution 45Final Word 512 Surprising Probabilities: When Intuition Struggles 53Boys, Girls, Aces, and Colored Cards 53Goats and Gloats 58Happy Birthday 61Typical Atypicalities 66The British Snob and I 72Strategery 75Final Word 783 Tiny Probabilities: Why Are They So Hard to Escape? 79Probable Improbabilities 79Saddam and I 83Taking Tiny Risks 89A Million-to-One Shot, Doc, Million to One! 91Monsieur Poisson and the Mysterious Number 37 93Clumps in Space 98Final Word 1004 Backward Probabilities: The Reverend Bayes to Our Rescue 101Driving Miss Daisy 101Bayes, Balls, and Boys (and Girls) 104Bayes and My Green Card 107Objection Your Honor 112Ornithology 122Final Word 1255 Beyond Probabilities: What to Expect 127Great Expectations 127The Price is Right (Maybe) 134Blood, Sweat, and Theory 137Good Things Come to Those Who Wait 140Expect the Unexpected 145Exponential Growth toward Extinction 149Size Matters (and Length, and Age) 159Mean, Median, Mode 165Deviant Behavior 171Final Word 1766 Inevitable Probabilities: Two Fascinating Mathematical Results 177Alea Iacta Est, Over and Over 177Even-Steven? The Law Misunderstood 181Coin Tosses and Freeway Congestion 188Let’s Get Serious 195Bells and Bread 200How a Toronto Quincunx Changed My Life 204Final Word 2067 Gambling Probabilities: Why Donald Trump Is Richer than You 209French Letters 209Roulette: A Classy Way to Waste Your Money 214Craps: Not so Dicey after All 219Blackjack: Money for Mnemonics 222Math for Losers 227Win Money and Lose Friends 234Final Word 2458 Guessing Probabilities: Enter the Statisticians 247Lies, Damned Lies, and Beautiful Lies? 2474 Out of 10 Like the President 19 Times Out of 20 251Polls Gone Wild 257The Silver Lining 262The Lawsuit and the Lurker 265Football Players and Geyser Eruptions 271Snooping in the Abbot’s Garden 278Final Word 2849 Faking Probabilities: Computer Simulation 285Mahogany Dice and Modular Arithmetic 285Random and Not-So-Random Digits 293Number One is Number One 294Is Random Really Random? 297Final Word 302Index 305