Risk Assessment

MARVIN RAUSAND, is Professor Emeritus in the Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway, and author of System Reliability Theory: Models, Statistical Methods, and Applications and Reliability of Safety-Critical Systems: Theory and Applications, both published by Wiley. STEIN HAUGEN, PHD, is Professor in the Department of Marine Technology at Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Norway.

• Preface xiiiAcknowledgments xviiAbout the Companion Site xix1 Introduction 11.1 Risk in Our Modern Society 11.2 Important Trends 21.3 Major Accidents 41.4 History of Risk Assessment 41.5 Applications of Risk Assessment 91.6 Objectives, Scope, and Delimitation 111.7 Problems 12References 132 The Words of Risk Analysis 152.1 Introduction 152.2 Risk 162.3 What Can Go Wrong? 202.4 What is the Likelihood? 382.5 What are the Consequences? 442.6 Additional Terms 492.7 Problems 54References 563 Main Elements of Risk Assessment 593.1 Introduction 593.2 Risk Assessment Process 603.3 Risk Assessment Report 763.4 Risk Assessment in Safety Legislation 813.5 Validity and Quality Aspects of a Risk Assessment 823.6 Problems 83References 844 Study Object and Limitations 874.1 Introduction 874.2 Study Object 874.3 Operating Context 914.4 System Modeling and Analysis 924.5 Complexity 954.6 Problems 97References 985 Risk Acceptance 995.1 Introduction 995.2 Risk Acceptance Criteria 995.3 Approaches to Establishing Risk Acceptance Criteria 1065.4 Risk Acceptance Criteria for Other Assets than Humans 1145.5 Closure 1155.6 Problems 115References 1176 Measuring Risk 1216.1 Introduction 1216.2 Risk Metrics 1216.3 Measuring Risk to People 1236.4 Risk Matrices 1486.5 Reduction in Life Expectancy 1546.6 Choice and Use of Risk Metrics 1566.7 Risk Metrics for Other Assets 1586.8 Problems 159References 1637 Risk Management 1677.1 Introduction 1677.2 Scope, Context, and Criteria 1707.3 Risk Assessment 1707.4 Risk Treatment 1717.5 Communication and Consultation 1727.6 Monitoring and Review 1737.7 Recording and Reporting 1747.8 Stakeholders 1757.9 Risk and Decision-Making 1767.10 Safety Legislation 1797.11 Problems 180References 1808 Accident Models 1838.1 Introduction 1838.2 Accident Classification 1838.3 Accident Investigation 1888.4 Accident Causation 1888.5 Accident Models 1908.6 Energy and Barrier Models 1938.7 Sequential Accident Models 1958.8 Epidemiological Accident Models 2018.9 Event Causation and Sequencing Models 2088.10 Systemic Accident Models 2138.11 Combining Accident Models 2288.12 Problems 229References 2309 Data for Risk Analysis 2359.1 Types of Data 2359.2 Quality and Applicability of Data 2389.3 Data Sources 2399.4 Expert Judgment 2509.5 Data Dossier 2549.6 Problems 254References 25710 Hazard Identification 25910.1 Introduction 25910.2 Checklist Methods 26310.3 Preliminary Hazard Analysis 26610.4 Job Safety Analysis 27810.5 FMECA 28710.6 HAZOP 29510.7 STPA 30610.8 SWIFT 31610.9 Comparing Semiquantitative Methods 32210.10 Master Logic Diagram 32210.11 Change Analysis 32410.12 Hazard Log 32710.13 Problems 331References 33511 Causal and Frequency Analysis 33911.1 Introduction 33911.2 Cause and Effect Diagram Analysis 34111.3 Fault Tree Analysis 34411.4 Bayesian Networks 37011.5 Markov Methods 38411.6 Problems 396References 40012 Development of Accident Scenarios 40112.1 Introduction 40112.2 Event Tree Analysis 40212.3 Event Sequence Diagrams 42612.4 Cause–Consequence Analysis 42612.5 Hybrid Causal Logic 42812.6 Escalation Problems 42912.7 Consequence Models 42912.8 Problems 431References 43513 Dependent Failures and Events 43713.1 Introduction 43713.2 Dependent Failures and Events 43713.3 Dependency in Accident Scenarios 43913.4 Cascading Failures 44113.5 Common-Cause Failures 44213.6 𝛽-Factor Model 45213.7 Binomial Failure Rate Model 45613.8 Multiple Greek Letter Model 45713.9 𝛼-Factor Model 45913.10 Multiple 𝛽-Factor Model 46113.11 Problems 461References 46214 Barriers and Barrier Analysis 46514.1 Introduction 46514.2 Barriers and Barrier Classification 46614.3 Barrier Management 47414.4 Barrier Properties 47614.5 Safety-Instrumented Systems 47714.6 Hazard–Barrier Matrices 48714.7 Safety Barrier Diagrams 48814.8 Bow-Tie Diagrams 49014.9 Energy Flow/Barrier Analysis 49014.10 Layer of Protection Analysis 49314.11 Barrier and Operational Risk Analysis 50214.12 Systematic Identification and Evaluation of Risk Reduction Measures 51214.13 Problems 518References 52015 Human Reliability Analysis 52515.1 Introduction 52515.2 Task Analysis 53615.3 Human Error Identification 54315.4 HRA Methods 55215.5 Problems 573References 57416 Risk Analysis and Management for Operation 57916.1 Introduction 57916.2 Decisions About Risk 58116.3 Aspects of Risk to Consider 58316.4 Risk Indicators 58516.5 Risk Modeling 59416.6 Operational Risk Analysis – Updating the QRA 59616.7 MIRMAP 59816.8 Problems 601References 60217 Security Assessment 60517.1 Introduction 60517.2 Main Elements of Security Assessment 60817.3 Industrial Control and Safety Systems 61517.4 Security Assessment 61717.5 Security Assessment Methods 62517.6 Application Areas 62617.7 Problems 627References 62818 Life Cycle Use of Risk Analysis 63118.1 Introduction 63118.2 Phases in the Life Cycle 63118.3 Comments Applicable to all Phases 63418.4 Feasibility and Concept Selection 63518.5 Preliminary Design 63718.6 Detailed Design and Construction 63918.7 Operation and Maintenance 64118.8 Major Modifications 64118.9 Decommissioning and Removal 64318.10 Problems 643References 64319 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis 64519.1 Introduction 64519.2 Uncertainty 64719.3 Categories of Uncertainty 64819.4 Contributors to Uncertainty 65119.5 Uncertainty Propagation 65619.6 Sensitivity Analysis 66119.7 Problems 663References 66420 Development and Applications of Risk Assessment 66720.1 Introduction 66720.2 Defense and Defense Industry 66820.3 Nuclear Power Industry 67020.4 Process Industry 67420.5 Offshore Oil and Gas Industry 67820.6 Space Industry 68120.7 Aviation 68320.8 Railway Transport 68520.9 Marine Transport 68620.10 Machinery Systems 68920.11 Food Safety 69020.12 Other Application Areas 69220.13 Closure 695References 697Appendix A Elements of Probability Theory 701A.1 Introduction 701A.2 Outcomes and Events 701A.3 Probability 706A.4 Random Variables 710A.5 Some Specific Distributions 718A.6 Point and Interval Estimation 728A.7 Bayesian Approach 732A.8 Probability of Frequency Approach 733References 739Appendix B Acronyms 741Author Index 747Subject Index 753