HELMUT TRAITLER, "Senior Innovation Connector" for Swissnex San Francisco, California, United States. MICHEL DUBOIS, UniLaSalle, Beauvais, France. KEITH HEIKES, Chief Executive Officer, Cooperative Resources International, Wisconsin, United States. VINCENT PÉTIARD, Founder of Plant Sciences and Technology Corporate R&D at Nestlé, France. DAVID ZILBERMAN, Professor who holds the Robinson Chair in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California at Berkeley, United States.

• Foreword xiiiAcknowledgments xvPart 1 Agriculture and the Food Industry 11 The Role of Agriculture in Today’s Food Industry 31.1 Introduction 31.1.1 The Four Building Blocks 41.1.2 Some History of Agriculture 51.1.3 Eat More and Increase the Likelihood for Survival 61.1.4 Food Can Be Grown and Plants Can Be Bred: What’s Next? 71.1.5 From Very Old to Rather Recent Food]Preservation Techniques 91.2 Agriculture: The Main Supplier to the Food Industry 101.2.1 Artificial Ingredients 101.2.2 The Main Raw Material Sources 111.2.3 Milk’s the Star 121.2.4 Milk…What Else? 131.2.5 Other Excursions from Food 141.2.6 Noncompeting Alternatives 151.3 Agriculture’s New Role in Light of Food and Health 161.3.1 Decades of Food Safety Rules and Regulations 181.3.2 More Rules: What Do We Do? 201.3.3 Raw Materials and Processes Become More Sophisticated 211.4 Most Likely Drivers for Change in the Agriculture Industry 231.5 Summary and Major Learning 25References 272 Water Management in Modern Agriculture: The Role of Water and Water Management in Agriculture and Industry 292.1 Introduction 292.2 Multiple Dimensions of Water 302.3 On the Evolution of Water Institutions and Policies 332.4 Reforming Water]Resource Management at the Micro]Level (Farm and Field) 352.5 Reforming Regional Water]Allocation Regimes 382.6 Improved Water Project Design 422.7 Improved Water Quality 432.8 Climate Change 442.9 Summary and Major Learning 46References 473 Innovation in Plant Breeding for a Sustainable Supply of High]Quality Plant Raw Materials for the Food Industry 533.1 Introduction 533.2 Challenges for Future Agricultures and Food Industries 543.2.1 Strongly Growing Food Needs 543.2.2 Energy Issues 563.3 Genetic]Based Techniques for Plant Breeding in the Context of Agricultural Production 593.3.1 Genetic Innovation and Agronomic Practices 593.3.2 The Process of Plant Breeding and Its Main Limitations 613.3.3 Preliminary Conclusions 673.4 Trends: Shift in Allocation of Resources to Global Needs? 683.4.1 Methodology 683.4.2 Analysis of Investment in Seed Research and Development 693.4.3 Analysis of Deviations and Distortions of R&D Investments and Production Volumes 713.5 A First Set of Conclusions and Recommendations 773.6 Summary and Major Learning 803.7 Appendix Tables 81References 854 The Agriculture of Animals: Animal Proteins of the Future as Valuable and Sustainable Sources for the Food Industry 874.1 Livestock and Animal Husbandry 874.1.1 How We Got to Now 884.2 Animals: A Source of High]Quality Proteins 894.3 Animal Protein Demand in Emerging Markets 904.4 Optimal Animal Welfare: Sustainable, Humane, and Healthy 934.4.1 Animal Production Increase 954.5 Animal]Breeding Programs 974.5.1 Genomic Breeding of Animals 984.6 The Use of Big Data for Management and Genetic Evaluations 1024.7 Summary and Major Learning 106References 108Part 2 The Future of the Food Industry 1095 The Food Trends—The New Food—Enough Food? 1115.1 Historical Food Trends: From Then to Now 1115.1.1 Food and Beverages during the Period of Classical Greece 1115.1.2 Food and Beverages in the Roman Empire 1135.1.3 Food in Medieval Times in Central Europe 1155.1.4 From European Renaissance and Enlightenment to the First Industrial Revolution 1185.1.5 Food in the 20th Century: The Real Food Revolution 1215.2 Present]Day Food Fashions and Trends: A Never]Ending Story 1245.2.1 Food and Nutrition Trends: A Story of Perception, Deception, and Beliefs 1255.3 New Food Sources: New Protein Sources 1285.3.1 Insects: A New Food Source? 1295.3.2 Increased Food Security through Exploiting New Protein Sources 1305.3.3 A “Crazy” Idea for Other Food Sources: Beyond Proteins 1315.4 Vegetarian Food and Its Potential Societal and Economic Impact 1325.5 Urban Gardening and Urban Agriculture 1345.5.1 The Urban Bee]Highways 1365.6 Summary and Major Learning 137References 1386 The New Food Industry Business Model: From B2C to B2B, from Product Manufacture to Selling Know]How, and from Now to Then 1416.1 The Old: Develop, Manufacture, and Sell (“Demase”) 1416.1.1 The Fall of the Righteous 1426.2 The New: The Customer Is King, the Consumer Is an Enabler, and from B2C to B2B 1446.2.1 Slotting Allowance 1456.2.2 Retailers Become the Most Important Partners for Food and Beverage Companies 1466.2.3 How This Could Work: A Possible Path and Examples 1476.3 From Selling Products to Selling Know]How 1506.3.1 The Knowledge]Centric Company 1526.3.2 Engaging, Interacting, and Selling: The New Etiquette 1546.4 The Community of Consumers: It’s What They Want that Counts! 1556.4.1 The Consumers Become Involved 1586.5 Food]Related Trends and Hypes in Today’s Societies: An Outlook to the Future 1616.6 Summary and Major Learning 163References 1657 The Internet of Just about Everything: Impact on Agriculture and Food Industry 1677.1 Modern Cooking: Forward to the Past 1677.1.1 The Role of Robotics and Connectivity 1697.2 Everything Is Online and Everyone Is Online—All the Time 1717.3 Food and Agriculture: The New Hardware and Software 1747.3.1 Big Data Are Here to Stay 1767.3.2 Agriculture and Space Science: The New Connection 1767.3.3 Impact on the Food Industry and the Consumer in the Middle 1787.4 An Attempt at Peaking Ahead: Will There Still Be an Agriculture or Food Industry? 1797.4.1 Bigger Is Not Always Better 1807.4.2 Elements that Will Stay and Others that Might Disappear 1827.5 Summary and Major Learning 186References 1898 Nutrition: The Old Mantra … the New Un]Word 1918.1 Nutrition: What’s All the Fuss about? 1918.1.1 The Hottest New Food Trends 1928.1.2 The Debate Continues: What’s Good and What’s Not Good for You? 1958.1.3 And Here We Go Again: Fasting Can Do You an Awful Lot of Good 1968.1.4 A Few Simple Tips When It Comes to Healthy and Happy Eating 1978.2 A Bit of Nutrition History 1988.2.1 Low and Reduced, Lower and “Reduced]Er”: Low or Reduced Fat 2028.2.2 Low or Reduced Salt 2038.2.3 Low or Reduced Sugar and No Sugar 2048.2.4 Low Saturated Fats, Good Monounsaturated Fats, More Polyunsaturated Fats, and Lots of Ω3 Fats 2068.3 Typical Nutrition Controversies 2088.3.1 So Many Recommendations…Too Many? 2088.3.2 More Controversies 2108.4 Food and Claims, Food and Benefits 2118.5 Summary and Major Learning 214References 217Part 3 The New Food World 2199 A Food Company Transforms Itself 2219.1 The Not]So]New Realities 2219.1.1 Automation Is Here…For Quite Some Time Actually 2239.1.2 The Novel Directions in Food and Agriculture are Governed by Regulatory Involvement 2259.1.3 All]Natural Industrial Food Products: The Way Forward? 2269.2 From Product to Know]How Seller: An Encore 2279.2.1 Some Assumptions as to How This May Function 2289.2.2 What are Possible Consequences for Food Ingredient Suppliers? 2309.3 Anticipating the Inevitable: Possible Scenarios 2349.3.1 Possible Future Models and Scenarios 2389.3.2 The Return Of Medical Food? 2399.4 Reality or Fiction? Reality and Fiction! 2419.4.1 A New Manufacturing Reality 2429.5 Summary and Major Learning 244References 24610 Food for the Future: A Future for Food 24710.1 Proactive Agriculture 24710.1.1 What If Agriculture Anticipated Real Food Requirements and Trends? 24910.2 Democratized Agriculture 25210.2.1 Agrihood 25310.2.2 Permaculture 25410.2.3 From Large to Small 25910.2.4 The Growing Role of Urban Agriculture: Self]Centeredness or Community Driven? 26110.3 Agriculture and Food Manufacture in Exotic Places 26410.3.1 An Ice Cream Factory in Greenland? 26510.3.2 A Chocolate Factory in Ghana? 26610.4 A Future for Food 26910.4.1 What about the Role of Restaurants? 26910.4.2 Pet Food Is Food, Too 27010.4.3 Will We Eat Food in Pill Format? 27110.5 Summary and Major Learning 273References 27411 Summary and Outlook 27711.1 Introduction 27711.1.1 The Role of Agriculture in Today’s Food Industry 27811.1.2 Food]Preservation Techniques 27911.1.3 Agriculture Is the Main Raw Material Supplier to Be Transformed to Food 28011.1.4 Nonfood Uses of Agricultural Raw Materials 28011.1.5 Agriculture in a World of Rules and Regulations 28011.1.6 Food Raw Materials and Process Became More Sophisticated and Complex 28111.2 Water Management in Modern Agriculture 28111.2.1 The “Water Reform” 28211.2.2 Water Productivity 28211.2.3 Water]Related Government Policies 28311.2.4 Getting It Right: Policies and Price 28311.2.5 Controlling Water Quality 28411.3 Innovation in Plant Breeding: High]Quality Plant Raw Materials for the Food Industry 28511.3.1 Agricultural Plant Output: The Essential Raw Material Source for the Food Industry 28511.3.2 Demand Forecast Based on Food Requirements 28511.3.3 Genetic Improvement of Cultivated Crops 28511.3.4 The Major Crops versus “Orphan Crops” 28611.4 The Agriculture of Animals: Valuable and Sustainable Sources for the Food Industry 28611.4.1 Growing Population: Growing Amount of Livestock 28711.4.2 Animal Health and Intensive Farming 28711.4.3 Animal Breeding 28711.4.4 Good Farm Management: Good Data Management 28811.5 The Food Trends—the New Food—Enough Food? 28811.5.1 Food and Beverage Fashions and Trends of the Past 28911.5.2 The “Real” Food Revolution of the 20th Century 28911.5.3 Present]Day Food and Nutrition Trends 29011.5.4 New Food Sources: New Protein Sources 29011.5.5 Vegetarian Food and Its Impact on Society 29111.5.6 The Role of Urban Agriculture and Bees 29111.6 New Business Models for the Food Industry 29211.6.1 From “Consumer Is King” to “Customer Is King”: Retailers Become Real Partners 29211.6.2 Good]Bye to Selling Products and Hello to Selling Know]How 29311.6.3 Consumers Become Involved 29411.7 The Internet of Just about Everything and What This Means for Agriculture and Food 29511.7.1 Modern Cooking: A Brief Look to the Past 29511.7.2 Robotics and Connectivity 29611.7.3 Food and Agriculture: Big Data 29611.7.4 Will There Still Be Agriculture and Food Industries? 29711.7.5 What Will Remain, and What Will Disappear? 29711.8 Nutrition: What Else? 29911.8.1 Healthy and Happy Eating 29911.8.2 A Short History of Nutrition 30011.8.3 Nutrition Controversies 30111.8.4 Claims and Benefits 30211.9 The Company Transforms Itself 30211.9.1 The Role of Automation: Threat or Blessing? 30311.9.2 Regulatory Involvement in the Industry 30311.9.3 The New Business Model 2.1 30411.9.4 Scenarios of Relevance for Food and Agriculture 30411.9.5 Medical Food: A Future? 30511.9.6 Reality or Fiction? 30611.10 Agriculture Listens, Finally? 30611.10.1 Agriculture and Farming at the Fingertips of Everyone 30711.10.2 Small Is Beautiful 30811.10.3 Is Urban Agriculture a Sign of Self]Centeredness or Is It Community Driven? 30811.10.4 Manufacturing Food Where It Makes Sense 30911.10.5 What Role Do Restaurants Play? 30911.10.6 The Role of Pet Food in the Food Industry 31011.10.7 Food in the Format of Pills? Will Consuming Food Pills Be Part of Megatrends? 310Index 313

HELMUT TRAITLER, "Senior Innovation Connector" for Swissnex San Francisco, California, United States. MICHEL DUBOIS, UniLaSalle, Beauvais, France. KEITH HEIKES, Chief Executive Officer, Cooperative Resources International, Wisconsin, United States. VINCENT PÉTIARD, Founder of Plant Sciences and Technology Corporate R&D at Nestlé, France. DAVID ZILBERMAN, Professor who holds the Robinson Chair in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California at Berkeley, United States.

• Foreword xiiiAcknowledgments xvPart 1 Agriculture and the Food Industry 11 The Role of Agriculture in Today’s Food Industry 31.1 Introduction 31.1.1 The Four Building Blocks 41.1.2 Some History of Agriculture 51.1.3 Eat More and Increase the Likelihood for Survival 61.1.4 Food Can Be Grown and Plants Can Be Bred: What’s Next? 71.1.5 From Very Old to Rather Recent Food]Preservation Techniques 91.2 Agriculture: The Main Supplier to the Food Industry 101.2.1 Artificial Ingredients 101.2.2 The Main Raw Material Sources 111.2.3 Milk’s the Star 121.2.4 Milk…What Else? 131.2.5 Other Excursions from Food 141.2.6 Noncompeting Alternatives 151.3 Agriculture’s New Role in Light of Food and Health 161.3.1 Decades of Food Safety Rules and Regulations 181.3.2 More Rules: What Do We Do? 201.3.3 Raw Materials and Processes Become More Sophisticated 211.4 Most Likely Drivers for Change in the Agriculture Industry 231.5 Summary and Major Learning 25References 272 Water Management in Modern Agriculture: The Role of Water and Water Management in Agriculture and Industry 292.1 Introduction 292.2 Multiple Dimensions of Water 302.3 On the Evolution of Water Institutions and Policies 332.4 Reforming Water]Resource Management at the Micro]Level (Farm and Field) 352.5 Reforming Regional Water]Allocation Regimes 382.6 Improved Water Project Design 422.7 Improved Water Quality 432.8 Climate Change 442.9 Summary and Major Learning 46References 473 Innovation in Plant Breeding for a Sustainable Supply of High]Quality Plant Raw Materials for the Food Industry 533.1 Introduction 533.2 Challenges for Future Agricultures and Food Industries 543.2.1 Strongly Growing Food Needs 543.2.2 Energy Issues 563.3 Genetic]Based Techniques for Plant Breeding in the Context of Agricultural Production 593.3.1 Genetic Innovation and Agronomic Practices 593.3.2 The Process of Plant Breeding and Its Main Limitations 613.3.3 Preliminary Conclusions 673.4 Trends: Shift in Allocation of Resources to Global Needs? 683.4.1 Methodology 683.4.2 Analysis of Investment in Seed Research and Development 693.4.3 Analysis of Deviations and Distortions of R&D Investments and Production Volumes 713.5 A First Set of Conclusions and Recommendations 773.6 Summary and Major Learning 803.7 Appendix Tables 81References 854 The Agriculture of Animals: Animal Proteins of the Future as Valuable and Sustainable Sources for the Food Industry 874.1 Livestock and Animal Husbandry 874.1.1 How We Got to Now 884.2 Animals: A Source of High]Quality Proteins 894.3 Animal Protein Demand in Emerging Markets 904.4 Optimal Animal Welfare: Sustainable, Humane, and Healthy 934.4.1 Animal Production Increase 954.5 Animal]Breeding Programs 974.5.1 Genomic Breeding of Animals 984.6 The Use of Big Data for Management and Genetic Evaluations 1024.7 Summary and Major Learning 106References 108Part 2 The Future of the Food Industry 1095 The Food Trends—The New Food—Enough Food? 1115.1 Historical Food Trends: From Then to Now 1115.1.1 Food and Beverages during the Period of Classical Greece 1115.1.2 Food and Beverages in the Roman Empire 1135.1.3 Food in Medieval Times in Central Europe 1155.1.4 From European Renaissance and Enlightenment to the First Industrial Revolution 1185.1.5 Food in the 20th Century: The Real Food Revolution 1215.2 Present]Day Food Fashions and Trends: A Never]Ending Story 1245.2.1 Food and Nutrition Trends: A Story of Perception, Deception, and Beliefs 1255.3 New Food Sources: New Protein Sources 1285.3.1 Insects: A New Food Source? 1295.3.2 Increased Food Security through Exploiting New Protein Sources 1305.3.3 A “Crazy” Idea for Other Food Sources: Beyond Proteins 1315.4 Vegetarian Food and Its Potential Societal and Economic Impact 1325.5 Urban Gardening and Urban Agriculture 1345.5.1 The Urban Bee]Highways 1365.6 Summary and Major Learning 137References 1386 The New Food Industry Business Model: From B2C to B2B, from Product Manufacture to Selling Know]How, and from Now to Then 1416.1 The Old: Develop, Manufacture, and Sell (“Demase”) 1416.1.1 The Fall of the Righteous 1426.2 The New: The Customer Is King, the Consumer Is an Enabler, and from B2C to B2B 1446.2.1 Slotting Allowance 1456.2.2 Retailers Become the Most Important Partners for Food and Beverage Companies 1466.2.3 How This Could Work: A Possible Path and Examples 1476.3 From Selling Products to Selling Know]How 1506.3.1 The Knowledge]Centric Company 1526.3.2 Engaging, Interacting, and Selling: The New Etiquette 1546.4 The Community of Consumers: It’s What They Want that Counts! 1556.4.1 The Consumers Become Involved 1586.5 Food]Related Trends and Hypes in Today’s Societies: An Outlook to the Future 1616.6 Summary and Major Learning 163References 1657 The Internet of Just about Everything: Impact on Agriculture and Food Industry 1677.1 Modern Cooking: Forward to the Past 1677.1.1 The Role of Robotics and Connectivity 1697.2 Everything Is Online and Everyone Is Online—All the Time 1717.3 Food and Agriculture: The New Hardware and Software 1747.3.1 Big Data Are Here to Stay 1767.3.2 Agriculture and Space Science: The New Connection 1767.3.3 Impact on the Food Industry and the Consumer in the Middle 1787.4 An Attempt at Peaking Ahead: Will There Still Be an Agriculture or Food Industry? 1797.4.1 Bigger Is Not Always Better 1807.4.2 Elements that Will Stay and Others that Might Disappear 1827.5 Summary and Major Learning 186References 1898 Nutrition: The Old Mantra … the New Un]Word 1918.1 Nutrition: What’s All the Fuss about? 1918.1.1 The Hottest New Food Trends 1928.1.2 The Debate Continues: What’s Good and What’s Not Good for You? 1958.1.3 And Here We Go Again: Fasting Can Do You an Awful Lot of Good 1968.1.4 A Few Simple Tips When It Comes to Healthy and Happy Eating 1978.2 A Bit of Nutrition History 1988.2.1 Low and Reduced, Lower and “Reduced]Er”: Low or Reduced Fat 2028.2.2 Low or Reduced Salt 2038.2.3 Low or Reduced Sugar and No Sugar 2048.2.4 Low Saturated Fats, Good Monounsaturated Fats, More Polyunsaturated Fats, and Lots of Ω3 Fats 2068.3 Typical Nutrition Controversies 2088.3.1 So Many Recommendations…Too Many? 2088.3.2 More Controversies 2108.4 Food and Claims, Food and Benefits 2118.5 Summary and Major Learning 214References 217Part 3 The New Food World 2199 A Food Company Transforms Itself 2219.1 The Not]So]New Realities 2219.1.1 Automation Is Here…For Quite Some Time Actually 2239.1.2 The Novel Directions in Food and Agriculture are Governed by Regulatory Involvement 2259.1.3 All]Natural Industrial Food Products: The Way Forward? 2269.2 From Product to Know]How Seller: An Encore 2279.2.1 Some Assumptions as to How This May Function 2289.2.2 What are Possible Consequences for Food Ingredient Suppliers? 2309.3 Anticipating the Inevitable: Possible Scenarios 2349.3.1 Possible Future Models and Scenarios 2389.3.2 The Return Of Medical Food? 2399.4 Reality or Fiction? Reality and Fiction! 2419.4.1 A New Manufacturing Reality 2429.5 Summary and Major Learning 244References 24610 Food for the Future: A Future for Food 24710.1 Proactive Agriculture 24710.1.1 What If Agriculture Anticipated Real Food Requirements and Trends? 24910.2 Democratized Agriculture 25210.2.1 Agrihood 25310.2.2 Permaculture 25410.2.3 From Large to Small 25910.2.4 The Growing Role of Urban Agriculture: Self]Centeredness or Community Driven? 26110.3 Agriculture and Food Manufacture in Exotic Places 26410.3.1 An Ice Cream Factory in Greenland? 26510.3.2 A Chocolate Factory in Ghana? 26610.4 A Future for Food 26910.4.1 What about the Role of Restaurants? 26910.4.2 Pet Food Is Food, Too 27010.4.3 Will We Eat Food in Pill Format? 27110.5 Summary and Major Learning 273References 27411 Summary and Outlook 27711.1 Introduction 27711.1.1 The Role of Agriculture in Today’s Food Industry 27811.1.2 Food]Preservation Techniques 27911.1.3 Agriculture Is the Main Raw Material Supplier to Be Transformed to Food 28011.1.4 Nonfood Uses of Agricultural Raw Materials 28011.1.5 Agriculture in a World of Rules and Regulations 28011.1.6 Food Raw Materials and Process Became More Sophisticated and Complex 28111.2 Water Management in Modern Agriculture 28111.2.1 The “Water Reform” 28211.2.2 Water Productivity 28211.2.3 Water]Related Government Policies 28311.2.4 Getting It Right: Policies and Price 28311.2.5 Controlling Water Quality 28411.3 Innovation in Plant Breeding: High]Quality Plant Raw Materials for the Food Industry 28511.3.1 Agricultural Plant Output: The Essential Raw Material Source for the Food Industry 28511.3.2 Demand Forecast Based on Food Requirements 28511.3.3 Genetic Improvement of Cultivated Crops 28511.3.4 The Major Crops versus “Orphan Crops” 28611.4 The Agriculture of Animals: Valuable and Sustainable Sources for the Food Industry 28611.4.1 Growing Population: Growing Amount of Livestock 28711.4.2 Animal Health and Intensive Farming 28711.4.3 Animal Breeding 28711.4.4 Good Farm Management: Good Data Management 28811.5 The Food Trends—the New Food—Enough Food? 28811.5.1 Food and Beverage Fashions and Trends of the Past 28911.5.2 The “Real” Food Revolution of the 20th Century 28911.5.3 Present]Day Food and Nutrition Trends 29011.5.4 New Food Sources: New Protein Sources 29011.5.5 Vegetarian Food and Its Impact on Society 29111.5.6 The Role of Urban Agriculture and Bees 29111.6 New Business Models for the Food Industry 29211.6.1 From “Consumer Is King” to “Customer Is King”: Retailers Become Real Partners 29211.6.2 Good]Bye to Selling Products and Hello to Selling Know]How 29311.6.3 Consumers Become Involved 29411.7 The Internet of Just about Everything and What This Means for Agriculture and Food 29511.7.1 Modern Cooking: A Brief Look to the Past 29511.7.2 Robotics and Connectivity 29611.7.3 Food and Agriculture: Big Data 29611.7.4 Will There Still Be Agriculture and Food Industries? 29711.7.5 What Will Remain, and What Will Disappear? 29711.8 Nutrition: What Else? 29911.8.1 Healthy and Happy Eating 29911.8.2 A Short History of Nutrition 30011.8.3 Nutrition Controversies 30111.8.4 Claims and Benefits 30211.9 The Company Transforms Itself 30211.9.1 The Role of Automation: Threat or Blessing? 30311.9.2 Regulatory Involvement in the Industry 30311.9.3 The New Business Model 2.1 30411.9.4 Scenarios of Relevance for Food and Agriculture 30411.9.5 Medical Food: A Future? 30511.9.6 Reality or Fiction? 30611.10 Agriculture Listens, Finally? 30611.10.1 Agriculture and Farming at the Fingertips of Everyone 30711.10.2 Small Is Beautiful 30811.10.3 Is Urban Agriculture a Sign of Self]Centeredness or Is It Community Driven? 30811.10.4 Manufacturing Food Where It Makes Sense 30911.10.5 What Role Do Restaurants Play? 30911.10.6 The Role of Pet Food in the Food Industry 31011.10.7 Food in the Format of Pills? Will Consuming Food Pills Be Part of Megatrends? 310Index 313

HELMUT TRAITLER, "Senior Innovation Connector" for Swissnex San Francisco, California, United States. MICHEL DUBOIS, UniLaSalle, Beauvais, France. KEITH HEIKES, Chief Executive Officer, Cooperative Resources International, Wisconsin, United States. VINCENT PÉTIARD, Founder of Plant Sciences and Technology Corporate R&D at Nestlé, France. DAVID ZILBERMAN, Professor who holds the Robinson Chair in the Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California at Berkeley, United States.

• Foreword xiiiAcknowledgments xvPart 1 Agriculture and the Food Industry 11 The Role of Agriculture in Today’s Food Industry 31.1 Introduction 31.1.1 The Four Building Blocks 41.1.2 Some History of Agriculture 51.1.3 Eat More and Increase the Likelihood for Survival 61.1.4 Food Can Be Grown and Plants Can Be Bred: What’s Next? 71.1.5 From Very Old to Rather Recent Food]Preservation Techniques 91.2 Agriculture: The Main Supplier to the Food Industry 101.2.1 Artificial Ingredients 101.2.2 The Main Raw Material Sources 111.2.3 Milk’s the Star 121.2.4 Milk…What Else? 131.2.5 Other Excursions from Food 141.2.6 Noncompeting Alternatives 151.3 Agriculture’s New Role in Light of Food and Health 161.3.1 Decades of Food Safety Rules and Regulations 181.3.2 More Rules: What Do We Do? 201.3.3 Raw Materials and Processes Become More Sophisticated 211.4 Most Likely Drivers for Change in the Agriculture Industry 231.5 Summary and Major Learning 25References 272 Water Management in Modern Agriculture: The Role of Water and Water Management in Agriculture and Industry 292.1 Introduction 292.2 Multiple Dimensions of Water 302.3 On the Evolution of Water Institutions and Policies 332.4 Reforming Water]Resource Management at the Micro]Level (Farm and Field) 352.5 Reforming Regional Water]Allocation Regimes 382.6 Improved Water Project Design 422.7 Improved Water Quality 432.8 Climate Change 442.9 Summary and Major Learning 46References 473 Innovation in Plant Breeding for a Sustainable Supply of High]Quality Plant Raw Materials for the Food Industry 533.1 Introduction 533.2 Challenges for Future Agricultures and Food Industries 543.2.1 Strongly Growing Food Needs 543.2.2 Energy Issues 563.3 Genetic]Based Techniques for Plant Breeding in the Context of Agricultural Production 593.3.1 Genetic Innovation and Agronomic Practices 593.3.2 The Process of Plant Breeding and Its Main Limitations 613.3.3 Preliminary Conclusions 673.4 Trends: Shift in Allocation of Resources to Global Needs? 683.4.1 Methodology 683.4.2 Analysis of Investment in Seed Research and Development 693.4.3 Analysis of Deviations and Distortions of R&D Investments and Production Volumes 713.5 A First Set of Conclusions and Recommendations 773.6 Summary and Major Learning 803.7 Appendix Tables 81References 854 The Agriculture of Animals: Animal Proteins of the Future as Valuable and Sustainable Sources for the Food Industry 874.1 Livestock and Animal Husbandry 874.1.1 How We Got to Now 884.2 Animals: A Source of High]Quality Proteins 894.3 Animal Protein Demand in Emerging Markets 904.4 Optimal Animal Welfare: Sustainable, Humane, and Healthy 934.4.1 Animal Production Increase 954.5 Animal]Breeding Programs 974.5.1 Genomic Breeding of Animals 984.6 The Use of Big Data for Management and Genetic Evaluations 1024.7 Summary and Major Learning 106References 108Part 2 The Future of the Food Industry 1095 The Food Trends—The New Food—Enough Food? 1115.1 Historical Food Trends: From Then to Now 1115.1.1 Food and Beverages during the Period of Classical Greece 1115.1.2 Food and Beverages in the Roman Empire 1135.1.3 Food in Medieval Times in Central Europe 1155.1.4 From European Renaissance and Enlightenment to the First Industrial Revolution 1185.1.5 Food in the 20th Century: The Real Food Revolution 1215.2 Present]Day Food Fashions and Trends: A Never]Ending Story 1245.2.1 Food and Nutrition Trends: A Story of Perception, Deception, and Beliefs 1255.3 New Food Sources: New Protein Sources 1285.3.1 Insects: A New Food Source? 1295.3.2 Increased Food Security through Exploiting New Protein Sources 1305.3.3 A “Crazy” Idea for Other Food Sources: Beyond Proteins 1315.4 Vegetarian Food and Its Potential Societal and Economic Impact 1325.5 Urban Gardening and Urban Agriculture 1345.5.1 The Urban Bee]Highways 1365.6 Summary and Major Learning 137References 1386 The New Food Industry Business Model: From B2C to B2B, from Product Manufacture to Selling Know]How, and from Now to Then 1416.1 The Old: Develop, Manufacture, and Sell (“Demase”) 1416.1.1 The Fall of the Righteous 1426.2 The New: The Customer Is King, the Consumer Is an Enabler, and from B2C to B2B 1446.2.1 Slotting Allowance 1456.2.2 Retailers Become the Most Important Partners for Food and Beverage Companies 1466.2.3 How This Could Work: A Possible Path and Examples 1476.3 From Selling Products to Selling Know]How 1506.3.1 The Knowledge]Centric Company 1526.3.2 Engaging, Interacting, and Selling: The New Etiquette 1546.4 The Community of Consumers: It’s What They Want that Counts! 1556.4.1 The Consumers Become Involved 1586.5 Food]Related Trends and Hypes in Today’s Societies: An Outlook to the Future 1616.6 Summary and Major Learning 163References 1657 The Internet of Just about Everything: Impact on Agriculture and Food Industry 1677.1 Modern Cooking: Forward to the Past 1677.1.1 The Role of Robotics and Connectivity 1697.2 Everything Is Online and Everyone Is Online—All the Time 1717.3 Food and Agriculture: The New Hardware and Software 1747.3.1 Big Data Are Here to Stay 1767.3.2 Agriculture and Space Science: The New Connection 1767.3.3 Impact on the Food Industry and the Consumer in the Middle 1787.4 An Attempt at Peaking Ahead: Will There Still Be an Agriculture or Food Industry? 1797.4.1 Bigger Is Not Always Better 1807.4.2 Elements that Will Stay and Others that Might Disappear 1827.5 Summary and Major Learning 186References 1898 Nutrition: The Old Mantra … the New Un]Word 1918.1 Nutrition: What’s All the Fuss about? 1918.1.1 The Hottest New Food Trends 1928.1.2 The Debate Continues: What’s Good and What’s Not Good for You? 1958.1.3 And Here We Go Again: Fasting Can Do You an Awful Lot of Good 1968.1.4 A Few Simple Tips When It Comes to Healthy and Happy Eating 1978.2 A Bit of Nutrition History 1988.2.1 Low and Reduced, Lower and “Reduced]Er”: Low or Reduced Fat 2028.2.2 Low or Reduced Salt 2038.2.3 Low or Reduced Sugar and No Sugar 2048.2.4 Low Saturated Fats, Good Monounsaturated Fats, More Polyunsaturated Fats, and Lots of Ω3 Fats 2068.3 Typical Nutrition Controversies 2088.3.1 So Many Recommendations…Too Many? 2088.3.2 More Controversies 2108.4 Food and Claims, Food and Benefits 2118.5 Summary and Major Learning 214References 217Part 3 The New Food World 2199 A Food Company Transforms Itself 2219.1 The Not]So]New Realities 2219.1.1 Automation Is Here…For Quite Some Time Actually 2239.1.2 The Novel Directions in Food and Agriculture are Governed by Regulatory Involvement 2259.1.3 All]Natural Industrial Food Products: The Way Forward? 2269.2 From Product to Know]How Seller: An Encore 2279.2.1 Some Assumptions as to How This May Function 2289.2.2 What are Possible Consequences for Food Ingredient Suppliers? 2309.3 Anticipating the Inevitable: Possible Scenarios 2349.3.1 Possible Future Models and Scenarios 2389.3.2 The Return Of Medical Food? 2399.4 Reality or Fiction? Reality and Fiction! 2419.4.1 A New Manufacturing Reality 2429.5 Summary and Major Learning 244References 24610 Food for the Future: A Future for Food 24710.1 Proactive Agriculture 24710.1.1 What If Agriculture Anticipated Real Food Requirements and Trends? 24910.2 Democratized Agriculture 25210.2.1 Agrihood 25310.2.2 Permaculture 25410.2.3 From Large to Small 25910.2.4 The Growing Role of Urban Agriculture: Self]Centeredness or Community Driven? 26110.3 Agriculture and Food Manufacture in Exotic Places 26410.3.1 An Ice Cream Factory in Greenland? 26510.3.2 A Chocolate Factory in Ghana? 26610.4 A Future for Food 26910.4.1 What about the Role of Restaurants? 26910.4.2 Pet Food Is Food, Too 27010.4.3 Will We Eat Food in Pill Format? 27110.5 Summary and Major Learning 273References 27411 Summary and Outlook 27711.1 Introduction 27711.1.1 The Role of Agriculture in Today’s Food Industry 27811.1.2 Food]Preservation Techniques 27911.1.3 Agriculture Is the Main Raw Material Supplier to Be Transformed to Food 28011.1.4 Nonfood Uses of Agricultural Raw Materials 28011.1.5 Agriculture in a World of Rules and Regulations 28011.1.6 Food Raw Materials and Process Became More Sophisticated and Complex 28111.2 Water Management in Modern Agriculture 28111.2.1 The “Water Reform” 28211.2.2 Water Productivity 28211.2.3 Water]Related Government Policies 28311.2.4 Getting It Right: Policies and Price 28311.2.5 Controlling Water Quality 28411.3 Innovation in Plant Breeding: High]Quality Plant Raw Materials for the Food Industry 28511.3.1 Agricultural Plant Output: The Essential Raw Material Source for the Food Industry 28511.3.2 Demand Forecast Based on Food Requirements 28511.3.3 Genetic Improvement of Cultivated Crops 28511.3.4 The Major Crops versus “Orphan Crops” 28611.4 The Agriculture of Animals: Valuable and Sustainable Sources for the Food Industry 28611.4.1 Growing Population: Growing Amount of Livestock 28711.4.2 Animal Health and Intensive Farming 28711.4.3 Animal Breeding 28711.4.4 Good Farm Management: Good Data Management 28811.5 The Food Trends—the New Food—Enough Food? 28811.5.1 Food and Beverage Fashions and Trends of the Past 28911.5.2 The “Real” Food Revolution of the 20th Century 28911.5.3 Present]Day Food and Nutrition Trends 29011.5.4 New Food Sources: New Protein Sources 29011.5.5 Vegetarian Food and Its Impact on Society 29111.5.6 The Role of Urban Agriculture and Bees 29111.6 New Business Models for the Food Industry 29211.6.1 From “Consumer Is King” to “Customer Is King”: Retailers Become Real Partners 29211.6.2 Good]Bye to Selling Products and Hello to Selling Know]How 29311.6.3 Consumers Become Involved 29411.7 The Internet of Just about Everything and What This Means for Agriculture and Food 29511.7.1 Modern Cooking: A Brief Look to the Past 29511.7.2 Robotics and Connectivity 29611.7.3 Food and Agriculture: Big Data 29611.7.4 Will There Still Be Agriculture and Food Industries? 29711.7.5 What Will Remain, and What Will Disappear? 29711.8 Nutrition: What Else? 29911.8.1 Healthy and Happy Eating 29911.8.2 A Short History of Nutrition 30011.8.3 Nutrition Controversies 30111.8.4 Claims and Benefits 30211.9 The Company Transforms Itself 30211.9.1 The Role of Automation: Threat or Blessing? 30311.9.2 Regulatory Involvement in the Industry 30311.9.3 The New Business Model 2.1 30411.9.4 Scenarios of Relevance for Food and Agriculture 30411.9.5 Medical Food: A Future? 30511.9.6 Reality or Fiction? 30611.10 Agriculture Listens, Finally? 30611.10.1 Agriculture and Farming at the Fingertips of Everyone 30711.10.2 Small Is Beautiful 30811.10.3 Is Urban Agriculture a Sign of Self]Centeredness or Is It Community Driven? 30811.10.4 Manufacturing Food Where It Makes Sense 30911.10.5 What Role Do Restaurants Play? 30911.10.6 The Role of Pet Food in the Food Industry 31011.10.7 Food in the Format of Pills? Will Consuming Food Pills Be Part of Megatrends? 310Index 313