Term Limits and Their Consequences

Stanley M. Caress is Professor of Political Science at the University of West Georgia and the author of Dynamics of American Politics. Todd T. Kunioka is a statistical analyst for Los Angeles County and teaches Political Science at Cerritos College in California.

"After moving through its clear prose and straightforward tables, the reader will emerge with firm sense of the impact of term limits on who serves in statehouses, how their careers unfold, and patterns in the tenure of leaders … Caress and Kunioka's work will become a standard reference on these weighty matters." — American Review of Politics"Caress and Kunioka have written a very timely and comprehensive study regarding the impact that term limits have had on state legislatures … The authors have provided an excellent contribution by covering every angle thoroughly … in a way that is easily understood … Highly recommended." — CHOICE"While prior studies were based on limited or no data, this book examines states with lengthy term limits experience. More of this type of work is needed to capture the consequences of term limits." — Rick Farmer, Assistant Commissioner, Oklahoma Insurance Department

• List of Tables1. IntroductionWhy Study Term Limits?How Term Limits Have Been StudiedThe Early DebateEarly ScholarshipMethodological Weaknesses of Early Pre-Implementation StudiesMethods Used in Later StudiesThis Book2. Movement to Establish Term LimitsDifference between Mass Political Movements and Grassroots Democracy MovementsEssential Elements of Grassroots Democracy MovementsThe Success of the MovementHistorical Stages of the Term Limit MovementConclusion3. Why Were Term Limits So PopularThe American Tradition of Political ReformNormative Perspectives of Support for Term LimitsResearch on Why Voters Prefer Term Limits and Still Vote for Their IncumbentMotivational Categories of Why Voters Prefer Term LimitsThe optimistic Politics of Changing Rules4. Impact of the Election of WomenPredicted Impact on the Election of Women to State LegislaturesCurrent Evidence form the StatesThe Potential Anticipatory Influence of Term LimitsAdditional Evidence: Comparing Congress with State LegislaturesCase Study: California, the First State to Feel the Impact of Term LimitsImplications of the California Experience: Why Didn’t Term Limits MatterOther Factors Influence the Election of Women More Than Term LimitsConclusion5. Impact of the Election of the Minority CandidatesResearch on Minorities and Term LimitsNational Trends in the Election of Black and Hispanic Candidates to States LegislaturesEvidence from the California State Assembly, Michigan State house, Georgia House of Representatives, and Pennsylvania State HouseSummarizing the Case Study States: Term Limits, Redistricting, and State Demographics6. Consequences of Term Limit Enactment on Career PathsAmbition TheoryImpact of Term Limits on MotivationCareer Paths for California’s Term Limited Legislators: Other Impacts on Legislative CareersContrasting Career PathsMichigan v. CaliforniaDiscussionConclusion7. Changes in Legislative LeadershipConsequences of Eliminating Entrenched Legislative LeadersPre-Term Limit California Speaker PatternPost-Term Limit Speakership Transition PatternCalifornia Senate PatternUnseating the Leader Even Without Term LimitsGeorgiaMinorities in Leadership PositionsWomen Obtaining Leadership PositionsUnanticipated ConsequencesWeakened Leadership in Other Term-Limited StatesConclusions8. Insider’s Views of Term LimitsWhy Interviews are ImportantViews of Experience of a Former State LegislatorThe Different Experience of a Post-Term Limits LegislatorViews of Two Legislative StaffersViews of a Former InsiderWhat These Interviews Suggest9. The Future of Term Limits in the States and on CongressTerm Limits and Future Turnover ratesTerm Limits in the StatesExpansion, Contraction, or the Status Quo?Future ConsequencesTerm Limits and CongressConclusion10. ConclusionThe Future of Term LimitsFinal Thoughts