Trumped

Larry J. Sabato is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia and director of its Center for Politics. He is the author or editor of more than twenty books on American politics and elections.Kyle Kondik is managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections. He is the author of The Bellwether: Why Ohio Picks the President (2016).Geoffrey Skelley is associate editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, the University of Virginia Center for Politics’ nonpartisan newsletter on American campaigns and elections.

Praise for Barack Obama and the New America: President Obama’s reelection was the third consecutive reelection of a president—following Presidents Clinton and Bush—during periods of war, terrorist attacks, great financial turmoil, and sharp political divisions. Looking beyond the headlines of political reporting on what many view as a very long and drawn-out presidential race, political scholar Sabato offers broader and deeper analysis through 12 contributors, journalists, analysts, and academics. Sabato begins with an overview of the election, focusing on Obama’s break with several points of conventional wisdom (e.g., that high unemployment and low favorability ratings among white voters would doom his chances) and examines Republican missteps, including misreading the midterm elections and moving strongly to the Right. Contributors, including Nate Cohn of the New Republic, Robert Costa of National Review, a former chairman of the Federal Elections Commission, and the publisher of Congressional Quarterly, offer keen analysis on a wide range of topics from voting patterns to press coverage to the impact of outside funding. They also explore the nominating process, the impact of changing demographics on likely political realignments, and the prospects for the Republican and Democratic Parties.

• Introduction and Acknowledgments 1. The 2016 Election that Broke All, or At Least Most, of the Rules, by Larry J. Sabato2. Demographic Coalitions: How Trump Picked the Democratic Lock and Won the Presidency, by David Byler3. Straight Tickets for Senate, Some Split Tickets for Governor: The 2016 Senate and Gubernatorial Elections, by Geoffrey Skelley4. House 2016: The Republicans Endure, by Kyle Kondik5. Presidential Primaries: A Hit at the Ballot Box, by Rhodes Cook6. Donald Trump and a GOP Primary Race Like No Other, by Robert Costa7. “Feel the Bern,” Hillary’s Agonizing Loss, and the Future of the Democratic Party, by Greg Sargent 8. Latinos and the 2016 Election, by Matt Barreto, Thomas Schaller, and Gary Segura9. The Sources of Trump’s Support, by Ronald Rapoport and Walt Stone10. Polling in the 2016 Election, by Ariel Edwards-Levy, Natalie Jackson, and Janie Velencia11. Twitter Rants, Press Bashing, and Fake News: The Shameful Legacy of Media in the 2016 Election, by Diana Owen12. The Seven-Billion-Dollar Election: Emerging Campaign Finance Trends and their Impact on the 2016 Presidential Race and Beyond, by Michael E. Toner and Karen E. Trainer13. It Wasn’t the Economy, Stupid: Racial Polarization, White Racial Resentment, and the Rise of Trump, by Alan I. Abramowitz14. The “Emerging Democratic Majority” Fails to Emerge, by Sean Trende15. Ten Takeaways from Campaign 2016 and a Look Forward, by Susan A. MacManus and Anthony A. CilluffoNotesIndexAbout the Contributors