Our Shrinking Planet

Massimo Livi Bacci is Emeritus Professor of Demography at the University of Florence.

"A welcome reminder of how geographical differences in demography have a profound affect on people's lives."New Scientist"In this succinct and eclectic essay one of the great demographers of our time reflects on past, present, and likely future trends in population, migration, and aging and on their impacts on the environment, on politics, and on much more besides. A timely tour de force."J.R. McNeill, Georgetown University"Livi Bacci thinks deeply and writes broadly about population in the context of our planet's history, environmental constraints, and the future - from a constructive rather than alarmist perspective. He is concerned equally with unsustainably low fertility in rich countries and high fertility in poor ones, and with the global tensions that result."Ronald D. Lee, University of California, Berkeley"Ib this authoritative, beautifully synthesized analysis of global population, demographer Massimo Livi Bacci pinpoints a planet-sized problem"Nature

• Author’s noteIntroductionChapter OneGrowing and shrinkingEros, Thanatos and the demographic balance in the ancient world. From biological-instinctual conditions to individual choice. The world’s changeable geodemography. Demographic transition and demographic revolution: from 1 to 10 billion in two centuries.Chapter TwoLand, water, airSimeon Stylites and his environmental footprint. The cabal of the 10 x 2 x 7. More than half the planet changed by human intervention. Population and fragile regions: coasts, forests and urbanisation. From the London smog of the seventeenth century to the greenhouse effect in the twenty-first.Chapter ThreeAdaptation and self-regulationDemographic systems’ adaptation and self-regulation. Examples from history. The possibility of regulating modern populations: reproduction levels and migration. Biological and social change. Italy after the crisis: a system-change?Chapter FourSustainableÉ for whom?Zeus, the Brundtland Report and sustainability. The Millennium Development Goals and Sustainable Development Goals: isn’t population a priority any more? Demographic explosion, demographic decline: both unsustainable. The parable of Tycoonia and Pauperia.Chapter FiveGeodemography and geopoliticsMussolini Ð numbers mean power. The pendulum of fear, between growth and decline. Geodemography and geopolitics. The weight of numbers within states: ethnicities, religions, minorities and majorities. Power rankings.Chapter SixHomo sapiens, Homo movensShipwrecks and barriers. International migration grows despite obstacles. Demographic and economic pressures. Three past globalisation processes, and the fourth one to come. The unsustainability of politics without international rules.Chapter SevenLong lifespans have their costA woman from Arles lived to 122 years of age. In the rich countries a life expectancy of 90 is not far off. The sustainability of long lifespans. The profile of a 100 year society. Rigid ages, flexible roles. Four generations under one roof.Chapter EightFew prescriptions for many illsPoverty and hunger: the Millennium Development Goals reached. But the numbers of poor and hungry in Africa increase. The burden of 168 objectives. The Malthusian trap. Nuclear-armed India with one in five children wasted. Political mission: concentrate efforts, dismantle the trap.EpilogueOur shrinking planetA thousand times more crowded, a thousand times smaller. Still today a pendulum of fear, between overpopulation and depopulation. Seven demographic and political notes. Awareness of limits.NotesIndex