Long-Range Dependence and Sea Level Forecasting

Dr. Ali Ercan is a postdoctoral researcher at the University of California, Davis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and co-manager of UC Davis J. Amorocho Hydraulics Laboratory since 2009. Dr. Ercan specializes in the areas of experimental and environmental hydraulics, sediment transport and water quality modelling, computational fluid dynamics, stochastic processes, and time series analysis. Dr. Rovshan K. Abbasov is an Associate Professor at Khazar University and a laboratory head of the Hydrometeorology Institute of the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, Azerbaijan. He has long experience in research and consulting. His research interests are mainly focused on Integrated Water Resources Management, Watershed Hydrology, Flood Management, Disaster Risk Reduction and Eco-hydrology. Prof. M. Levent Kavvas is an endowed chair professor at the University of California, Davis, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, working in the areas of hydrology, hydraulics and hydro-climatology. Prof. Kavvas has been the director of UC Davis J. Amorocho Hydraulics Laboratory since 1993. Prof. Kavvas is currently a member of the UNESCO Expert Group on Climate Change, member of Asia-Pacific Water Forum Steering Group on Climate Change and Water, consultant to Asian Development Bank on climate-change-related modeling studies, chair of American Society of Civil Engineers Hydro-climate committee, and member of the Climate Change Technical Advisory Group for California Department of Water Resources.

• ​1. Introduction.- 2. Long-Range Dependence and ARFIMA Models.- 3. Forecasting, Confidence Band Estimation and Updating.- 4.Case Study I: Caspian Sea Level.- 5.Case Study II: Sea Level Change at Peninsular Malaysia and Sabah-Sarawak.- 6. Summary and Conclusions.- 7. References