This volume represents the proceedings of the Esrel 2003, European Safety And Reliability Conference held in Netherlands. The conference focused on the application of safety, reliability and risk management assessment techniques occurs across domains.
1. Benchmark risk analysis models used in the Netherlands 2. Implementing a three-dimensional stochastic model of the subsurface in current geotechnical design methods 3. Reliability analysis of flood defence systems in the Netherlands 4. Application of response surfaces for reliability analysis of marine structures 5. Investigating effects of volume of mechanical components on structure reliability 6. An application of ARIPAR methodology to manage the risk and the environment impact in the industrial area of Gela 7. Managing a new product development using the reliability and quality matrix 8. Library prototype for reliable distributed system 9. Quantitative flood risk assessment for polders 10. What the management of industrial risk has to say about health care risk management 11. Fuzzy logic: A modelling tool for transient diagnostics 12. Sensitivity analysis in Monte Carlo simulation fo dependability analysis 13. A fuzzy model for the estimate of the accident rate in road transport of hazardous materials 14. An approach to aggregate public opinions and experts’ judgement with application to risk perception of sources of electrical supply 15. On the need of considering the risk dimension in electrical supply capacity planning 16. Exploratory data analysis approaches to reliability: Some new directions 17. Implementation of a reliability database within a medium sized defence and aerospace company 18. Application of quantitative risk assessment in various industrial sectors 19. Improvement of rule sets for quantitative risk assessment in various industrial sectors 20. Multi-Physics Analysis – A Method for the Design of Safe Pressurised Systems to Resist Accidental Fire 22. Using expert-opinions, retro-analyzes and experience feedback to risk-analysis and risk-hierarchization. Application to the Lorraine ferriferous basin (France) 23. A model simulating combustion of solids and its use in fire analysis with the code ECART 24. Economic accidental risk analysis. Experience from real life projects 25. Comparison of techniques for accident scenario analysis in hazardous systems 26. Bayesian computation of design discharges 27. Risk optimization on CAREM-25 NPP 28. Experience with complex technical and organizational changes in the offshore petroleum industry 29. Effect of a concrete wall in the limitation of thermal radiation resulting from large industrial fires 30. Improving the reliability of a SMPS by HALT and ALT 31. Practical reliability assurance through modelling and DRACAS 32. Determination of marginal reliability indices in a distribution network 33. Study of the increases of dose and of the mortality index caused by a fire due to the presence of the paving 34. A model to predict hurricanes induced losses for residential structures 35. A mixed integer optimisation model for preventive maintenance of production plants 36. ARAMIS project: The severity index 37. On the influence of passive states on the availability of mechanical systems 38. Risk to old bridges due to ship impact on German inland waterways 39. Integrated navigation system – safety prediction model for ship retrofit strategy 40. On modelling reliability properties in descriptor form 41. A scheme for industry-academia interaction to enhance research and development issues 42. Optimal redundancy allocation for systems considering common-cause failures 43. Proposal for a neural network approach and ordering heuristic for the fault tree evaluation 44. Application of functional hazard assessment in railway signalling 45. Aviation causal model using Bayesian Belief Nets to quantify management influence 46. Causal modeling for integrated safety at airports 47. Assessing part conformance by coordinate measuring machines 48. Hazardous materials release analysis: Probabilistic input for emergency response organisations 49. On a Bayesian model for failures prediction in underground trains 50. Attuning the task design to “envisioned” high-demand situations 51. Risk analysis of Black Sea underwater passage of Russia-Turkey trunk gas pipeline system 52. The use of probit functions in the quantitative risk assessment of domino accidents caused by overpressure 53. Application of sensitivity analysis for a risk analysis tool for blowouts 54. The new Dutch “Register for risk situations involving hazardous substances” 55. Boiler plant hazard assessment – A new requirement of the Finnish pressure equipment legislation 56. Apportionment of safety integrity levels in complex electronically controlled systems 57. A design methodology for embedded control systems including safety assessment studies 58. Criteria for safety culture assessment in German Nuclear Power Plants 59. Replacement strategies of large numbers of similar components in hydraulic structures 60. System reliability methods using advanced sampling techniques 61. Effect of soil-structure models on stochastic response of jack-up platforms 62. System reliability of jack-up structures based on fatigue degradation 63. Correlation in probabilistic safety assessment uncertainty analysis 64. Experience with the use of risk assessment in IMO 65. Criteria for establishing risk acceptance 66. Risk assessment of passenger vessels 67. Measuring the safety standard of organizations 68. Application of a Bayesian approach to sequential life testing with an underlying Weibull model 69. Establishing steel rail reliability by combining fatigue tests, factorial experiments and data transformations 70. Improved methods of power systems availability indices determination 71. The safety of risk or the risk of safety? 72. Safety assessment of third parties during construction in multiple use of space using Bayesian Networks 73. A logarithmatic approach for individual risk: The safety-index 74. Reduced vertical separation minimum (RVSM): Pre- and post-implementation safety cases 75. Assessment of the environment vulnerability in the surroundings of an industrial site 76. Increasing of the electric safety in HV systems by means of the ground resistance of the body 77. A Safety Program Framework and its application on a Weapon Control System 78. Cognitive analysis in human reliability: The case of a high-risk plant 79. Draft european standard on safety risk assessment for space missions 80. Extended stochastic petri nets in power systems maintenance models 81. An implementation of a life-cycle risk-based design for safety methodology 82. Availability and failure intensity under imperfect repair virtual age model 83. Quantification and uncertainties of common cause failure rates and probabilities 84. Risk assessment for offshore installations in the operational phase 85. Structured approach to risk indicators for major hazards 86. A contribution to vehicle life cycle cost modelling 87. Method for correlation of failure data from durability tests and field of automotive engine parts with spontaneous failure mode 88. Time-dependent reliability analysis of coastal flood defence systems 89. Adding a new perspective to the existing results by baseline NPP PSA model: Parameters uncertainty implementation 90. Impact of river morphology on extreme flood level prediction: A probabilistic approach 91. Efficiency and accuracy of Monte Carlo (importance) sampling 92. Optimizing software system design with recovery blocks considering reliability estimation uncertainty 93. The fireworks disaster in Enschede: Overview, reconstruction, safety and pyrotechnics 94. Consequence modelling of gas explosion scenarios in traffic tunnels 95. Scenario analysis for road tunnels 96. Risk based maintenance of civil structures 97. Modelling a probabilistic safety management system for the Eastern-Scheldt storm-surge barrier, the basin and the surrounding dikes 98. Reliability of vibration predictions in civil engineering applications 99. The development of software tools for chemical process quantitative risk assessment over two decades 100. Introduction of an easy-to-use risk assessment tool for natural gas transmission pipelines 101. Towards a qualitative predictive model of violation in transportation industry 102. Measuring the reliability importance of components in multi-state systems 103. Probabilistic aspects of maritime transport of tunnel elements 104. Foundations of the UPM common cause method
