Alireza Daneshkhah – författare

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research.Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities.Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs.Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences.Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples.

This is achieved by:

Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms.

An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.

Advances in Mathematical Modeling for Reliability discusses fundamental issues on mathematical modeling in reliability theory and its applications. Beginning with an extensive discussion of graphical modeling and Bayesian networks, the focus shifts towards repairable systems: a discussion about how sensitive availability calculations parameter choices, and emulators provide the potential to perform such calculations on complicated systems to a fair degree of accuracy and in a computationally efficient manner. Another issue that is addressed is how competing risks arise in reliability and maintenance analysis through the ways in which data is censored. Mixture failure rate modeling is also a point of discussion, as well as the signature of systems, where the properties of the system through the signature from the probability distributions on the lifetime of the components are distinguished. The last three topics of discussion are relations among aging and stochastic dependence, theoretical advances in modeling, inference and computation, and recent advances in recurrent event modeling and inference.

This book provides a holistic perspective on Digital Twin (DT) technologies, and presents cutting-edge research in the field. It assesses the opportunities that DT can offer for smart cities, and covers the requirements for ensuring secure, safe and sustainable smart cities. Further, the book demonstrates that DT and its benefits with regard to:  data visualisation, real-time data analytics, and learning leading to improved confidence in decision making;reasoning, monitoring and warning to support accurate diagnostics and prognostics;acting using edge control and what-if analysis; andconnection with back-end business applications hold significant potential for applications in smart cities, by employing a wide range of sensory and data-acquisition systems in various parts of the urban infrastructure. The contributing authors reveal how and why DT technologies that are used for monitoring, visualising, diagnosing and predicting in real-time are vital to cities’ sustainability and efficiency. The concepts outlined in the book represents a city together with all of its infrastructure elements, which communicate with each other in a complex manner. Moreover, securing Internet of Things (IoT) which is one of the key enablers of DT’s is discussed in details and from various perspectives. The book offers an outstanding reference guide for practitioners and researchers in manufacturing, operations research and communications, who are considering digitising some of their assets and related services. It is also a valuable asset for graduate students and academics who are looking to identify research gaps and develop their own proposals for further research.

This book provides a holistic perspective on Digital Twin (DT) technologies, and presents cutting-edge research in the field. It assesses the opportunities that DT can offer for smart cities, and covers the requirements for ensuring secure, safe and sustainable smart cities. Further, the book demonstrates that DT and its benefits with regard to:  

data visualisation, real-time data analytics, and learning leading to improved confidence in decision making;reasoning, monitoring and warning to support accurate diagnostics and prognostics;acting using edge control and what-if analysis; andconnection with back-end business applications 

hold significant potential for applications in smart cities, by employing a wide range of sensory and data-acquisition systems in various parts of the urban infrastructure. 

The contributing authors reveal how and why DT technologies that are used for monitoring, visualising, diagnosing and predicting in real-time are vital to cities’ sustainability and efficiency. The concepts outlined in the book represents a city together with all of its infrastructure elements, which communicate with each other in a complex manner. Moreover, securing Internet of Things (IoT) which is one of the key enablers of DT’s is discussed in details and from various perspectives. 

The book offers an outstanding reference guide for practitioners and researchers in manufacturing, operations research and communications, who are considering digitising some of their assets and related services. It is also a valuable asset for graduate students and academics who are looking to identify research gaps and develop their own proposals for further research.