George G. Kaufman - Böcker

This volume critically re-examines the profession's understanding of asset bubbles in light of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. It is well known that bubbles have occurred in the past, with the October 1929 crash as the most demonstrative example. However, the remarkably well-behaved performance of the US economy from 1945 to 2006, and, in particular during the Great Moderation period of 1984 to 2006, assured the economics profession and monetary policymakers that asset bubbles could be effectively managed with little or no real economic impact. The recent financial crisis has now triggered a debate about the emergence of a sequence of repeated bubbles in the Nasdaq market, housing market, credit market and commodity markets. The Greenspan-Bernanke Federal Reserve has followed an asymmetric approach to bubble management. This method advocates no monetary policy action during the bubble formation and growth, but a speedy response with a reduction in market rates when a bubble bursts to reduce the potential loss of output and employment. It was supported by academic research and seemed to work well until September 2008 when the financial system came close to a complete collapse. The realities of the recent financial crisis have intensified theoretical modeling, empirical methodologies, and debate on policy issues surrounding asset price bubbles and their potentially considerable adverse economic impact if poorly managed. Choosing to take a novel approach, the editors of this book have selected five classic papers that represent accepted thinking about asset bubbles prior to the financial crisis. They also include original papers challenging orthodox thinking and presenting new insights. A summary essay by the editors highlights the lessons learned and experiences gained since the crisis.

This volume critically re-examines the profession's understanding of asset bubbles in light of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. It is well known that bubbles have occurred in the past, with the October 1929 crash as the most demonstrative example. However, the remarkably well-behaved performance of the US economy from 1945 to 2006, and, in particular during the Great Moderation period of 1984 to 2006, assured the economics profession and monetary policymakers that asset bubbles could be effectively managed with little or no real economic impact. The recent financial crisis has now triggered a debate about the emergence of a sequence of repeated bubbles in the Nasdaq market, housing market, credit market, and commodity markets. The realities of the crisis have intensified theoretical modeling, empirical methodologies, and debate on policy issues surrounding asset price bubbles and their potentially adverse economic impact if poorly managed. Taking a novel approach, the editors of this book present five classic papers that represent accepted thinking about asset bubbles prior to the financial crisis. They also include original papers challenging orthodox thinking and presenting new insights. A summary essay highlights the lessons learned and experiences gained since the crisis.

The papers in this volume were presented at three invited sessions at the annual meeting of the Western Economic Association in Lake Tahoe, Nevada on June 30 and July 1, 1998. The comments of the speaker at each of these sessions are also included. The papers focus on the widespread banking and financial crises that have plagued many countries worldwide. A study by the International Monetary Fund (Lindgren, Garcia, & Saal, 1996) reported that banking crises had been experienced by nearly three-quarters of its 180-plus member countries since 1980. And this was before the current problems in Korea and Southeast Asia. Only the African continent, where banking systems are generally quite primitive, appears to have been unaffected. The papers in this volume amplify on the evidence in this area for additional countries; expand the earlier analyses; describe, discuss, and evaluate alternative procedures for resolving bank insolvencies and recapitalizing the banking system, and suggest ways of maintaining bank solvency and preventing reoccurrences of these costly crises. The papers are timely, add considerably to our storehouse of knowledge, and are likely to be of particular value to policy makers, bankers, and fellow researchers.

The papers in this volume were presented at three invited sessions at the annual meetings of the Western Economic Association in San Diego, California on July 8-10, 1999. The comments by delegates were also presented at that time and are included in the volume. The theme of the sessions was "Bank Problems: A Global Perspective." As has been well documented in previous volumes in this series, serious banking problems have plagued the large majority of countries globally be they industrial, emerging or transition economies. The problems arose because of both market failures and regulatory or government policy failures. The costs of these problems in terms of reduction in real output, misallocations of both real and financial resources, and transfer payments and cross-subsidies, particularly from taxpayers to protected stakeholders in failed banks, have been large and burdensome. Thus, a better understanding of the causes of the problems in both the private and government sectors and their potential solutions is a prerequisite for avoiding, or at least minimizing repetitions in the future. The papers in this volume contribute to this effort and add to our storehouse of knowledge. The emphasis on global in the title is reinforced by including papers by authors from Italy, Spain, and the United Kingdom, as well as the United States.

It has become increasingly evident in recent years that the safe and the efficient operation of the banking system cannot be guaranteed by Government regulation and supervisory review alone, regardless of how conscientious the regulator, or well-intended the regulations. Government regulation needs to be supplemented by market discipline. Market discipline requires the existence of at least some "de-facto at-risk" bank stakeholders, who have an incentive both to monitor the financial performance of the banks and to take action to influence bank management if they find performance unsatisfactory. But the concept of market discipline in banking was dormant for many years in the post-World War II era in almost all countries, as the fear of major economic spillover damage from bank failures led governments and regulators to either not failing insolvent banks officially or protecting most or all stakeholders, if they did place these banks in receivership. Only recently has the concept of market discipline been resurrected in banking. The 12 papers in this volume and eight commentaries on the papers discuss whether the resurrection is worthwhile. They consider the basic role of market discipline, how it may be applied to banking and more broadly to large financial institutions of any type, and the evidence of how well it has worked to date and the promise it may have for the future. The authors and discussants represent a wide array of both countries and affiliations - academic and regulatory. Thus, the papers reflect a wide spectrum of experience and thought.

Since 1990, major banking and current crises have occurred in many countries throughout the world - including Mexico and Latin America in 1994-95, East Asia in 1997-98, and Russia and Brazil in 1998 - with large costs both to the individual countries experiencing the crises and to other nations. As a result, considerable effort has been expended by economists and policymakers to identify the causes of these crises and to design programmes with the aim both of preventing similar crises from occurring in the future, and of minimizing the costs when these do occur. These studies have cut across national boundaries, being undertaken by individual researchers and organizations in particular countries, as well as by international institutions. This book collects the papers and discussants' comments presented at a conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and held in Chicago, in early October 1999. The purpose of the conference was to identify and discuss the lessons to be learned from these crises.Topics discussed included reviews of the crises in the individual countries and regions; analyses of the policy responses, both by the affected countries and by official international institutions; what has been learned from these crises; deposit insurance reform; the design of bank capital regulation; the role of bank supervision and regulation; and the future of official international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts from more than 25 countries. Because of the timeliness of the conference and the wide-ranging expertise of the participants, the papers in this book should be of use both to students of financial crises and to domestic and international policymakers.

In the late 1990s, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia experienced a series of major financial crises evinced by widespread bank insolvencies and currency depreciations, as well as sharp declines in gross domestic production. This sudden disruption of the Asian economic "miracle" astounded many observers around the world, raised questions about the stability of the international financial system and caused widespread fear that this financial crisis would spread to other countries. What has been called the Asian crisis followed a prolonged slump in Japan dating from the early 1980s and came after the Mexican currency crisis in the mid-1990s. Thus, the Asian crisis became a major policy concern at the International Monetary Fund as well as among developed countries whose cooperation in dealing with such financial crises is necessary to maintain the stability and efficiency of global financial markets. This book collects the papers and discussions delivered at an October 1998 Conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the International Monetary Fund to examine the causes, implications and possible solutions to the crises.The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts representing more than thirty countries. Topics discussed included the origin of the individual crises; early warning indicators; the role played by the global financial sector in this crisis; how, given an international safety net, potential risks of moral hazard might contribute to further crises; the lessons for the international financial system to be drawn from the Asian crisis; and what the role of the International Monetary Fund might be in future rescue operations.

In light of the periodic malfunctions in important sectors of the finan­ cial services industry in recent years, such as commercial banking, thrift institutions, and the securities market, numerous proposals have been developed for restructuring the financial system to improve both its safety and efficiency. Among the groups analyzing the performance of the financial system and recommending changes where necessary, has been the Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee. This Committee, which is described in greater detail in Chapter 1, consists of 12 independent banking experts from the academic and practitioner worlds that meet quarterly to analyze current developments in the financial services indus­ try and to make recommendations for improvements that would be in the public interest. The purpose of the Committee, its members, and a listing of policy statements are included in the Appendix. All but one of the chapters in this volume represent essays by indi­ vidual members of the Committee on issues discussed by the Committee at recent meetings and that, for the most part, resulted in policy state­ ments. They basically discuss the reasons for the policy statement adopted and place the issue in perspective. Where appropriate, the rele­ vant section of the respective policy statement is presented at the begin­ ning of each chapter. Each essay, however, reflects only the views of the individual author and not necessarily those of other members of the Committee or of the Committee as a whole.

This volume describes the banking structure in ten major countries, including the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Japan, China, France, Italy and Switzerland. It will serve as a reference guide for practitioners and academics in banking and finance. The book is particularly relevant as globalization of financial markets continues and one chapter is dedicated solely to the European economic integration in 1992. Each country is treated in a chapter whose author, or at least one of the co-authors, is a resident of the country in question.

This volume focuses on constructing a safer and more efficient financial system, based on the lessons learned from the financial debacles of the 1980s. The first essay discusses the economic and political forces both propelling and opposing widespread banking reform. The next two essays describe the intellectual history of the deposit insurance reform provisions of FDICIA, arguably the most important banking legislation since the Banking Act of 1933, discuss the weaknesses and strengths of these provisions and make recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the reforms. Theoretical and empirical evidence is then summarized and evaluated with respect to the costs and benefits of regulators granting forbearance to economically insolvent institutions. An analysis is given of the whys and hows of privatizing federal deposit insurance in case the reforms in FDICIA prove ineffective. An examination follows of the causes and consequences of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI) debacle of the early 1990s and the implications for the supervision of foreign banks in the United States and elsewhere. Next the broader issue is discussed of whether U.S. financial markets affect the behavior of U.S. corporate managers, and particularly whether they encourage managerial myopia. Without concluding whether such myopia exists, policy options are examined that would make financial markets more conducive to longer-term planning, including permitting banks to invest in corporate equity and thus monitor firms as owners as well as creditors.

Equal treatment in access to credit has long been a fundamental social goal in the United States. However, despite the passage of several laws in the US prohibiting discrimination in the provision of financial services on the basis of race, gender, and marital status, among other factors, questions concerning the existence of racial discrimination in such areas as home mortgage loans and small business credit continue, and confound public policy makers. This text is composed of nine articles and a panel discussion, originally published as a special issue of the "Journal of Financial Services Research". These contributions explore the complex issue of discrimination in financial services.

The last decade has been both traumatic and revolutionary for the U.S. banking industry. In late 1990 and early 1991, the outlook for the banking industry and even the federal insurance fund that backs most of its deposits looked especially bleak. Several independent analysts, congressional watchdog agencies, and the federal government itself warned that the large number and size of bank failures would exhaust the resources of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation for resolving bank failures and paying off their depositors.Amid extensive proposals for deposit insurance reform, Congress enacted the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation Improvement Act (FDICIA), one of the most important and controversial pieces of banking legislation of the last fifty years.In December 1992, Brookings sponsored a conference, in conjunction with the Chicago Clearing House Association, to mark the first anniversary of FDICIA and to assess its impact.This book features the papers presented at the conference and a summary of the discussion of the more than 150 participants. Representatives with diverse viewpoints met to consider and debate the wisdom of FDICIA and of future banking policy. The authors include leading academic scholars, current and former policymakers, and experts from the private sector. Their papers cover the intellectual and political history of the Act, how the Act was being implemented, responses of regulators and banks to the Act, and how banking regulatory and legislative policy should proceed. The book concludes with recommendations for future banking regulatory and legislative policy.In addition to editors Kaufman and Litan, the contributors are James E. Annable, First National Bank of Chicago; Richard C. Aspinwill, Chase Manhattan Bank; Richard Scott Carnell, Senate Banking Committee; Anthony Downs, Brookings; Robert E. Glauber, Harvard University; William S. Haraf, Citicorp; W. Lee Hoskins, Huntington National Bank; Edward J. Kane, Boston College; Congressman Jim Leach, ranking minority member of the House Banking Committee; David W. Mullins, Jr., vice-chairman of the Federal Reserve Board; Kenneth E. Scott, Stanford Law School; Karen D. Shaw, Institute for Strategy Development; Barbara Timmer, former General Counsel, House Banking Committee, and Jay M. Weintraub, Merrill Lynch.

Contemporary Studies in Economic and Financial Analysis provides further insights to postcrisis developments in the global economic and financial environment. Our hope is that the assembled papers will offer clear insights into the complex financial arrangements that now link emerging and developed financial markets in the current economic environment, outlining a multidisciplinary research agenda for the field.

Since 1990, major banking and current crises have occurred in many countries throughout the world - including Mexico and Latin America in 1994-95, East Asia in 1997-98, and Russia and Brazil in 1998 - with large costs both to the individual countries experiencing the crises and to other nations. As a result, considerable effort has been expended by economists and policymakers to identify the causes of these crises and to design programs with the aim both of preventing similar crises from occurring in the future, and of minimizing the costs when these do occur. These studies have cut across national boundaries, being undertaken by individual researchers and organizations in particular countries, as well as by international institutions. This book collects the papers and discussants' comments presented at a conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, and held in Chicago, in early October 1999. The purpose of the conference was to identify and discuss the lessons to be learned from these crises. Topics discussed included reviews of the crises in the individual countries and regions; analyses of the policy responses, both by the affected countries and by official international institutions; what has been learned from these crises; deposit insurance reform; the design of bank capital regulation; the role of bank supervision and regulation; and the future of official international financial institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts from more than twenty-five countries. Because of the timeliness of the conference and the wide-ranging expertise of the participants, the papers in this book should be of significant interest both to students of financial crises and to domestic and international policymakers.

In the late 1990s, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia experienced a series of major financial crises evinced by widespread bank insolvencies and currency depreciations, as well as sharp declines in gross domestic production. This sudden disruption of the Asian economic `miracle' astounded many observers around the world, raised questions about the stability of the international financial system and caused widespread fear that this financial crisis would spread to other countries. What has been called the Asian crisis followed a prolonged slump in Japan dating from the early 1980s and came after the Mexican currency crisis in the mid-1990s. Thus, the Asian crisis became a major policy concern at the International Monetary Fund as well as among developed countries whose cooperation in dealing with such financial crises is necessary to maintain the stability and efficiency of global financial markets. This book collects the papers and discussions delivered at an October 1998 Conference co-sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the International Monetary Fund to examine the causes, implications and possible solutions to the crises. The conference participants included a broad range of academic, industry, and regulatory experts representing more than thirty countries. Topics discussed included the origin of the individual crises; early warning indicators; the role played by the global financial sector in this crisis; how, given an international safety net, potential risks of moral hazard might contribute to further crises; the lessons for the international financial system to be drawn from the Asian crisis; and what the role of the International Monetary Fund might be in future rescue operations. Because the discussions of these topics include a wide diversity of critical views and opinions, the book offers a particularly rich presentation of current and evolving thinking on the causes and preventions of international banking and monetary crises. The book promises to be one of the timeliest as well as one of the most complete treatments of the Asian financial crisis and its implications for future policymaking.

Equal treatment in access to credit has long been a fundamental social goal in the United States. However, despite the passage of several laws in the U.S. prohibiting discrimination in the provision of financial services on the basis of race, gender, and marital status, among other factors, questions concerning the existence of racial discrimination in such areas as home mortgage loans and small business credit continue, and confound public policy makers. This book is composed of nine articles and a panel discussion, originally published as a special issue of the Journal of Financial Services Research. These contributions explore the complex issue of discrimination in financial services.

This volume focuses on constructing a safer and more efficient financial system based on the lessons learned from the financial debacles of the 1980s. The first essay discusses the economic and political forces both propelling and opposing widespread banking reform. The next two essays describe the intellectual history of the deposit insurance reform provisions of FDICIA, arguably the most important banking legislation since the Banking Act of 1933, discuss the weaknesses and strengths of these provisions and make recommendations for improving the effectiveness of the reforms. Theoretical and empirical evidence is then summarized and evaluated with respect to the costs and benefits of regulators granting forbearance to economically insolvent institutions. An analysis is given of the whys and hows of privatizing federal deposit insurance in case the reforms in FDICIA prove ineffective. An examination follows of the causes and consequences of the Bank of Credit and Commerce International (BCCI) debacle of the early 1990s and the implications for the supervision of foreign banks in the United States and elsewhere. Next the broader issue is discussed of whether U.S. financial markets affect the behavior of U.S. corporate managers, particularly whether they encourage managerial myopia. Without concluding whether such myopia exists, policy options are examined that would make financial markets more conducive to longer-term planning, including permitting banks to invest in corporate equity and thus monitor firms as owners as well as creditors.

The ongoing globalization of financial markets has increased the import­ ance to users of financial services, policy-makers and financial analysts of understanding the structure and operation of banking systems in other countries as well as that in their own country. This volume contributes to such an understanding. The structure and operation of the banking system are described for 10 important countries, plus the European Economic Community, under one cover. The contributing authors are knowledgable and widely respected experts. The author, or at least one of the coauthors, of each chapter is a resident of the country described. Each chapter follows a broadly similar outline, although the attention devoted to any particular area varies substantially according to authors' perceptions of its relative importance in the particular country. The chapters spotlight the similarities and differences among the structures. The volume should serve as both a handy and authoritative reference guide for practitioners, regulators and students of international banking. An early benefit of the book was an international conference held in Chicago in the fall of 1989 on the world integration of financial markets. A number of the authors of the chapters presented brief versions of their papers. The conference was sponsored jointly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and the MidAmerica Institute. The audience was primarily senior officers and regulators of financial institutions in the midwest. The conference generated considerable interest in both the subject matter and the contents of this book.

In light of the periodic malfunctions in important sectors of the finan­ cial services industry in recent years, such as commercial banking, thrift institutions, and the securities market, numerous proposals have been developed for restructuring the financial system to improve both its safety and efficiency. Among the groups analyzing the performance of the financial system and recommending changes where necessary, has been the Shadow Financial Regulatory Committee. This Committee, which is described in greater detail in Chapter 1, consists of 12 independent banking experts from the academic and practitioner worlds that meet quarterly to analyze current developments in the financial services indus­ try and to make recommendations for improvements that would be in the public interest. The purpose of the Committee, its members, and a listing of policy statements are included in the Appendix. All but one of the chapters in this volume represent essays by indi­ vidual members of the Committee on issues discussed by the Committee at recent meetings and that, for the most part, resulted in policy state­ ments. They basically discuss the reasons for the policy statement adopted and place the issue in perspective. Where appropriate, the rele­ vant section of the respective policy statement is presented at the begin­ ning of each chapter. Each essay, however, reflects only the views of the individual author and not necessarily those of other members of the Committee or of the Committee as a whole.

Bank failures, like illness and taxes, are almost a certainty at some time in the future. What is less certain is their cost to and adverse implications for macroeconomies. Past failures have frequently been resolved at very high cost to society. However, the cost could be reduced through having a well-developed, credible and widely publicized plan ready to put into action by policymakers. If no such plan is ready when a large bank approaches insolvency, political pressures are likely to influence the response of regulators.Minimizing immediate, short-run costs are likely to outweigh minimizing further out, longer-run and longer-lasting costs, even if these delayed costs promise to be substantially greater. Stated differently, today will win out over tomorrow and politics will trump economics. How best to prevent such unfavorable outcomes is the major theme of this volume. The articles presented review past insolvency resolutions, draw lessons from these resolutions, discuss impediments to efficient resolutions — including cross-country, cross-regulator, and institutional challenges — and recommend how to move forward.

Cross-border banking, while having the potential for a more efficient financial sector, also creates potential challenges for bank supervisors and regulators. It requires cooperation by regulatory authorities across jurisdictions and a clear delineation of authority and responsibility. That delineation is typically not present and regulatory authorities often have significantly different incentives to respond when cross-border-active banks encounter difficulties. Most of these issues have only begun to be seriously evaluated.This volume, one of the first attempts to address these issues, brings together experts and regulators from different countries. The wide range of topics discussed include: the current landscape of cross-border bank activity, the resulting competitive implications, emerging challenges for prudential regulation, safety net concerns, failure resolution issues, and the potential future evolution of international banking.This book has been selected for coverage in:• Index to Social Sciences & Humanities Proceedings® (ISSHP® / ISI Proceedings)• Index to Social Sciences & Humanities Proceedings (ISSHP CDROM version/ISI Proceedings)

This book explores the potential and problems of bank safety and efficiency arising from the rapidly growing area of cross-border banking in the form of branches or subsidiaries with primarily only national prudential regulation. There are likely to be differences in the treatment of the same bank operating in different countries or of different banks from different home countries operating in the same country with respect to deposit insurance provisions, declaration of insolvency, resolution of insolvencies, and lender of last resort protection. The book identifies these protection problems and discusses possible solutions, such as greater cross-border cooperation, harmonization and organizations.The contributors to this book include experts from different countries and from a wide range of affiliations, including academia, regulators, practitioners, and international organizations.

The impact of globalization of financial markets is a highly debated topic, particularly in recent months when the issue of globalization and contagion of financial distress has become a focus of intense policy debate. The papers in this volume provide an up-to-date overview of the key issues in this debate. While most of the contributions were prepared after the initial outbreak of the current global turmoil and financial crisis, they identify the relative strengths of the risk diversification and risk transmission processes and examine the empirical evidence to date. The book considers the relative roles of banks, nonbank financial institutions and capital markets in both risk diversification and risk transmission. It then evaluates the current status of crisis resolution in a global context, and speculates where to go from here in terms of understanding, resolution, prevention and public policy.

The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2010 has had a major impact on large cross-border banks, which are widely blamed for the start and severity of the crisis. As a result, much public policy, both in the United States and elsewhere, has been directed at making these banks safer and less influential by reducing their size and permissible powers through increased government regulation.At the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago's 18th annual International Banking Conference, held in November 2015, the status of these large cross-border banks was critically evaluated. In collaboration with the World Bank, the conference held discussions on the current regulatory landscape for large and internationally active financial institutions; the impact of regulation on bank permissible activities and international trade; improvements in risk management; necessary repairs to the bank safety net; the resolution of insolvent banks operating across national borders; corporate governance for banks in the new environment; implications for market and government discipline; and, progress in achieving international cooperation.Contributors include international policymakers, practitioners, researchers, and academics from more than 30 countries. The papers from the conference are collected in this volume.

The Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2010 exposed the existence of significant imperfections in the financial regulatory framework that encouraged excessive risk-taking and increased system vulnerabilities. The resulting high cost of the crisis in terms of lost aggregate income and wealth, and increased unemployment has reinforced the need to improve financial stability within and across countries via changes in traditional microprudential regulation, as well as the introduction of new macroprudential regulations. Amongst the questions raised are:

The central goal of this volume was to assemble outstanding scholars and policymakers in the field of financial markets and institutions and have them articulate significant market developments in their particular areas of expertise during the past few decades.Not just a celebratory volume, Public Policy and Financial Economics selected internationally recognized financial economists who have worked with Professor Kaufman during his years of scholarly research, and have a combined mastery of specialized financial markets themes and, very importantly, knowledge of public policies in the areas. All 15 chapters offer unique, innovative, and exciting expositions of several critical topics in financial economics.