Ian Bremmer - Böcker

Civil wars, acts of terror, seizures of private industries--the world is a dangerous place for investors. Indeed, it is more dangerous today than ten or twenty years ago, because of the growing importance of emerging and frontier markets. Even many relatively passive or risk averse investors are exposed in places like Turkey, China, and Brazil. But while they recognize the importance of political risks, until now they have not the right tools to analyze, evaluate, and predict them.This groundbreaking book is the first to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it explains that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious regions like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Brazil, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not. Authored by Ian Bremmer (author of the bestselling The J-Curve) and Preston Keat, the president and research director (respectively) of Eurasia Group, the world's largest political risk consultancy, Machiavelli and the Markets is an indispensable guide for anyone involved in the international economy, from major multinational corporations to small businesses simply trying to understand the risks that come with exports and imports.

As Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat reveal in this innovative book, volatile political events such as the 2008 Georgia-Russia confrontation--and their catastrophic effects on business--happen much more frequently than investors imagine. On the curve that charts both the frequency of these events and the power of their impact, the "tail" of extreme political instability is not reassuringly thin but dangerously fat. Featuring a new Foreword that accounts for the cataclysmic effects of the 2008 financial crisis, The Fat Tail is the first book to both identify the wide range of political risks that global firms face and show investors how to effectively manage them. Written by two of the world's leading figures in political risk management, it reveals that while the world remains exceedingly risky for businesses, it is by no means incomprehensible. Political risk is unpredictable, but it is easier to analyze and manage than most people think. Applying the lessons of world history, Bremmer and Keat survey a vast range of contemporary risky situations, from stable markets like the United States or Japan, where politically driven regulation can still dramatically effect business, to more precarious places like Iran, China, Russia, Turkey, Mexico, and Nigeria, where private property is less secure and energy politics sparks constant volatility. The book sheds light on a wide array of political risks--risks that stem from great power rivalries, terrorist groups, government takeover of private property, weak leaders and internal strife, and even the "black swans" that defy prediction. But more importantly, the authors provide a wealth of unique methods, tools, and concepts to help corporations, money managers, and policy makers understand political risk, showing when and how political risk analysis works--and when it does not."The Fat Tail delivers practical wisdom on the impact of political risk on firms of every description and valuable advice on how to use it. Ian Bremmer and Preston Keat offer innovative thinking and useful insight that will help business decision-makers find fresh answers to questions they may not yet know they have."--Fareed Zakaria, best-selling author of The Post-American World"Political risk has become increasingly complex, and The Fat Tail provides a truly new way to quantitatively assess it in established and emerging markets. It is essential reading for any CEO with multinational interests."--Randall Stephenson, Chairman, CEO and President, AT&T Inc. "Should be essential reading for anyone involved in international business even--perhaps especially--in places that seem politically stable."--Bill Emmott, former editor-in-chief of The Economist

IAN BREMMER WAS NAMED LINKEDIN'S #1 TOP INFLUENCER in 2017--------------'Required reading to help repair a world in pieces and build a world at peace' - António Guterres, United Nations Secretary General --------------'Ian Bremmer is provocative, controversial, and always intelligent about the state of the world, which he knows so well' - Christine Lagarde, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund --------------From Brexit, to Donald Trump, to extremist parties in Europe and the developing world, populism has dominated recent headlines. But what explains the rise of leaders who stoke nationalist anger in their countries, from Le Pen to Erdogan? How long will the populist wave last? Who will be the winners and losers in this climate, and how can we defend the values of democracy, free trade and international cooperation? No one is better suited to explore these questions than Ian Bremmer, the CEO of the Eurasia Group and acclaimed Time magazine columnist. Analysing the social, economic and technological forces fuelling this new wave of populism, Bremmer explains why we're witnessing a rejection of the democratic, global, cosmopolitan trends of the late 20th century. Us vs. Them is a definitive guide to navigating the shifting political landscape, for businesses looking to weather and survive the populist storm.--------------'Global politics is a jungle today. Thank goodness Ian Bremmer can be your guide' - David Miliband, president and CEO of the International Rescue Committee'A masterful analysis of why global crashed and populism soared'- Adam Grant, author of Give and Take, and Originals and Option B with Sheryl Sandberg

Since its publication in 1993, Nations and Politics in the Soviet Successor-States edited by Ian Bremmer and Ray Taras has established itself internationally as the genuinely comprehensive, systematic and rigorous analysis of the nation- and state-building processes of the fifteen states that grew out of the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union. New States, New Politics: Building the Post-Soviet Nations was first published in 1997 and succeeds and replaces the editors' earlier book with a fresh collection of specially commissioned studies from the world's foremost specialists. Far from eradicating tensions among the former Soviet peoples, the disintegration of empire saw national minorities rediscovering long-suppressed identities. The contributors to New States, New Politics bring together historical and ethnic backgrounds with penetrating political analysis to offer an intriguing record of the different roads to self-assertion and independence being pursued by these young nations.

The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

The scope and applicability of risk management have expanded greatly over the past decade. Banks, corporations, and public agencies employ its new technologies both in their daily operations and long-term investments. It would be unimaginable today for a global bank to operate without such systems in place. Similarly, many areas of public management, from NASA to the Centers for Disease Control, have recast their programs using risk management strategies. It is particularly striking, therefore, that such thinking has failed to penetrate the field of national security policy. Venturing into uncharted waters, Managing Strategic Surprise brings together risk management experts and practitioners from different fields with internationally-recognized national security scholars to produce the first systematic inquiry into risk and its applications in national security. The contributors examine whether advance risk assessment and management techniques can be successfully applied to address contemporary national security challenges.

Locate nations on the J Curve - left for authoritarian, right for democratic. Then figure out how to force those on the left to open their societies, rather than encouraging them to shut them tighter by further isolating them. The West's isolation of Kim Jong-il's North Korea gives him the cover he needs to extend his brutal regime (the mistake the U.S. made for a long time with Saddam Hussein and Castro); in Saudi Arabia, western governments should encourage manageable change before the country breaks apart; they should help strengthen China's economy so it can further liberalize; they must encourage Israel to decide what kind of country it will be. Filled with imaginative and surprising examples of how to correct outworn political ideas, The J Curvepoints the way for western governments to lead the way to a realistic political balance and a healthier economic future.

As stock markets gyrate, Europe lurches from crisis to crisis, and recovery in the United States slows, the future of the North American economy is more uncertain than ever. Can individual entrepreneurship, corporate innovation, and governments create a new era of sustained economic growth? Or, will the ongoing financial crisis, political dysfunction in the United States, and the rise of emerging nations erode living standards in North America for the long term? In this edition of the Munk Debates -- Canada's premier international debate series -- Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman and Chief Economist and Strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates David Rosenberg square off against former director of President Obama’s National Economic Council Lawrence Summers and bestselling author Ian Bremmer to tackle the resolution: Be it resolved North America faces a Japan-style era of high unemployment and slow growth.