Karl Shell – författare

The contents of this volume comprise the proceedings of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics conference held in 1987 at the IC^T2 (Innovation, Creativity, and Capital) Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. The essays present fundamental new research on the analysis of complicated outcomes in relatively simple macroeconomic models. The book covers econometric modelling and time series analysis techniques in five parts. Part I focuses on sunspot equilibria, the study of uncertainty generated by nonstochastic economic models. Part II examines the more traditional examples of deterministic chaos: bubbles, instability, and hyperinflation. Part III contains the most current literature dealing with empirical tests for chaos and strange attractors. Part IV deals with chaos and informational complexity. Part V, Nonlinear Econometric Modelling, includes tests for and applications of nonlinearity.

The contents of this volume comprise the proceedings of the International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics conference held in 1987 at the IC^T2 (Innovation, Creativity, and Capital) Institute at the University of Texas at Austin. The essays present fundamental new research on the analysis of complicated outcomes in relatively simple macroeconomic models. The book covers econometric modelling and time series analysis techniques in five parts. Part I focuses on sunspot equilibria, the study of uncertainty generated by nonstochastic economic models. Part II examines the more traditional examples of deterministic chaos: bubbles, instability, and hyperinflation. Part III contains the most current literature dealing with empirical tests for chaos and strange attractors. Part IV deals with chaos and informational complexity. Part V, Nonlinear Econometric Modelling, includes tests for and applications of nonlinearity.

This work on index-number construction focuses on production indexes, including output and input deflators that can be used for constructing real output and real input. Fisher and Shell treat separately the different production units: the firm, the industry, and the economy, as well as the different forms of industrial organization: monopoly, monopsony, and competition. Only in the simplest cases is the appropriate theory isomorphic to that of the cost-of-living index because of the interlinkages among the various production units. A firm cannot always assume that the behavior of its competitors, suppliers, and customers will be unaffected by price changes and only in special cases can an industry take supply and demand conditions as given.

Analysis of Economic Time Series: A Synthesis integrates several topics in economic time-series analysis, including the formulation and estimation of distributed-lag models of dynamic economic behavior; the application of spectral analysis in the study of the behavior of economic time series; and unobserved-components models for economic time series and the closely related problem of seasonal adjustment. Comprised of 14 chapters, this volume begins with a historical background on the use of unobserved components in the analysis of economic time series, followed by an Introduction to the theory of stationary time series. Subsequent chapters focus on the spectral representation and its estimation; formulation of distributed-lag models; elements of the theory of prediction and extraction; and formulation of unobserved-components models and canonical forms. Seasonal adjustment techniques and multivariate mixed moving-average autoregressive time-series models are also considered. Finally, a time-series model of the U.S. cattle industry is presented. This monograph will be of value to mathematicians, economists, and those interested in economic theory, econometrics, and mathematical economics.

The Theory of Positional Games with Applications in Economics deals with information and probabilistic extension of games in extensive forms, in normal forms, and to the existence of solutions of infinite games. The text also explains the application of existence of a solution to a von Neumann model with conflict interaction, and the theory of differential games based on Isaac''s equations. The text describes in detail the definitions of a difference game, control sets of players, general strategies, optimal behavioral strategies. Isaac''s approach to differential games is based primarily on the assumption of the sufficient smoothness of a Bellman''s function. Bellman''s function becomes smooth if control functions satisfy certain regularity conditions and smoothness conditions. Other approaches to differential games include the geometric properties of games and those of Avner Friedman and Nokolai Krasovsky. The computation of behavioral strategies in the Friedman approach is primarily based on Isaac''s approach. Krasovky''s approach is somewhat a generalization of both the geometrical approach and Friedman''s approximation approach. The book is suitable for economists, statistician, mathematicians, students or professors of economics, business, and games theory.

Microeconomics: A Modern Treatment focuses on modern approaches to microeconomics. Alternative systems are discussed including input-output analysis as against neoclassical production theory. The theory of choice and the preference and utility approaches to consumer theory are also considered, along with linear and nonlinear theories of production, the theory of market demand and supply, and welfare economics. Comprised of 11 chapters, this book begins with an introduction to economic science and its propositions, as well as the importance of establishing a clearly defined set of postulates on which the whole edifice of economic knowledge rests. The discussion then turns to the theory of choice and the preference and utility approaches to consumer theory; neoclassical as opposed to modern consumer choice; production theory and the production set of the economy; and the theory of market demand and supply. Subsequent chapters deal with the theory of exchange and general equilibrium; welfare economics; and stability and introductory dynamics. This monograph will be of value to economists and those interested in microeconomics.

"Macroeconomics" builds a number of macroeconomic models applying the non-Walrasian methodology. The literature on the subject has grown so rapidly in recent years that it would be unreasonable to try to give an exhaustive account of all existing models in the field. We have thus chosen to present here some models that cover as large a number of questions as possible within a simple and unified framework. We also want to bridge the gap with traditional macroeconomics while extending the analysis on various points, which be investigated by purposely making each time the simplest possible assumptions about the formation of the various prices (or, when needed, expectations) involved. This will allow us to demonstrate in a straightforward manner the synthetic qualities of the theory, both by making a natural synthesis with traditional macroeconomics, where similar simple assumptions are made, and by treating a large number of topics while using throughout a very unified macroframework.

The Hamiltonian Approach to Dynamic Economics focuses on the application of the Hamiltonian approach to dynamic economics and attempts to provide some unification of the theory of heterogeneous capital. Emphasis is placed on the stability of long-run steady-state equilibrium in models of heterogeneous capital accumulation. Generalizations of the Samuelson-Scheinkman approach are also given. Moreover, conditions are sought on the geometry of the Hamiltonian function (that is, on static technology) that suffice to preserve under (not necessarily small) perturbation the basic properties of the Hamiltonian dynamical system. Comprised of eight essays, this book begins with an introduction to Hamiltonian dynamics in economics, followed by a discussion on optimal steady states of n-sector growth models when utility is discounted. Optimal growth and decentralized or descriptive growth models in both continuous and discrete time are treated as applications of Hamiltonian dynamics. Theproblem of optimal growth with zero discounting is considered, with emphasis on a steepness condition on the Hamiltonian function. The general problem of decentralized growth with instantaneously adjusted expectations about price changes is also analyzed, along with the global asymptotic stability of optimal control systems with applications to the theory of economic growth. This monograph will be of value to mathematicians and economists.

Macroeconomics: An Introduction to the Non-Walrasian Approach provides the approach to macroeconomic theory based on the non-Walrasian method. This book presents the microeconomic concepts that can be applied in a simple and relevant manner to the fundamental topics of macroeconomic theory. Organized into five parts encompassing 14 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the fundamental concepts, describing the functioning of nonclearing markets, the role of expectations, the setting of prices by decentralized agents, and the derivation of optimal demand and supplies. This text then studies various non-Walrasian equilibrium concepts. Other chapters compare the classical and Keynesian theories of unemployment in the framework of a model. This book discusses as well the asymmetric price flexibility into the basic model. The final chapter deals with a dynamic model with explicit expectations, which allows a comparison of the employment effects of various expectations schemes and their realism. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Microeconomic Modeling and Policy Analysis: Studies in Residential Energy Demand analyzes the aggregates and distributional impacts from alternative energy polices related to the energy demands of residential consumers. The book also analyzes the use of micro-simulation models in the study. The book examines three alternative energy policies and their possible impacts on the residential energy demand. The text describes models on energy use including general micro-simulation and micro-simulation as applied in ""Residential End-Use Energy Planning Systems"" (REEPS) and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Residential Energy Consumption Model. The book describes REEPS as a model providing end-use specific forecasts of energy consumption at the household level. The text describes ORNL as a computationally simpler design but conceptually more complex one. The book then evaluates three different policy scenarios using each of these two models. The performance of REEPS and ORNL, as well as other dimensions of model projections, is examined. The implications regarding 1) policy analysis and 2) the use of micro simulation models are noted. The book then presents a table that summarizes the results of the comparative model evaluation. Energy policymakers, city and local government planning officials, development engineers, and environmentalists will find this book very relevant.

The Export—Import Bank: An Economic Analysis provides a critical analysis of the export financing issue and the Eximbank''s performance in fulfilling its congressional mandate. The analysis is based on extensive interviews with Eximbank officials and on numerous internal documents in addition to published materials. This book is composed of 11 chapters that reflect the three perspectives on Eximbank''s performance. First, an analysis of the need for such financing is presented in conjunction with an assessment of the competitiveness of U.S. programs compared with those provided by other nations. Second, Eximbank performance is evaluated in terms of the cost of its programs, their potential welfare impacts, and the likely impact on U.S. exports. Third, an evaluation is provided of the Eximbank''s decision making and its methodology for evaluating the impact of its direct credit program. Recommendations are made concerning U.S. export financing objectives, strategies for achieving those objectives, and Eximbank administrative procedures. This work also provides an economic analysis of Eximbank financing and includes a case study of Eximbank decision making in the granting of a $200 million aircraft credit to Ansett Airlines of Australia. This book will prove useful to those who are interested in international trade and finance, as well as those concerned more broadly with government intervention in markets.

Studies in Macroeconomic Theory, Volume 2: Redistribution and Growth is a compendium of scholarly papers on the behavior and public control of distribution and growth in the market economy. The papers in this volume focus on the subject of public finance under the broad theory of economic policy. The papers are grouped into five groups or sections. Part I covers the steady-state choices. The second part takes up the efficient use of a given volume of saving in the choice among national investments. Part III explores the alternative approaches to optimal national saving. Part IV discusses the maximin-optimal graduated taxation of wage income. The final section expounds on Rawls''s vision of the just economy. Economists will find the text invaluable and insightful.

The Economic Theory of Price Indices: Two Essays on the Effects of Taste, Quality, and Technological Change is concerned with the effects of consumer taste, product quality, and technological change on price indices. Special attention is paid on technological change in the simple two-sector production model of Rybczynski and Uzawa. The effects of the general case of changing factor supplies and factor-augmenting change on the real national output deflator are also examined. Comprised of two essays, this book begins with an analysis of the pure theory of the true cost-of-living index, which may be considered as an idealization of indices like the consumer price index and others of that type. The essay explores how the true cost-of-living index is affected by changes in consumer taste, quality changes in purchased goods, and the introduction of new goods into the market place. The second essay deals with the pure theory of the national output deflator and provides a foundation for the measurement of real national output (or product). It shows that the usual inequalities relating Paasche and Laspeyres to the true index are reversed (from what they are in cost-of-living theory) for the case of production. It also assesses the implications of changing production possibilities caused by technological change or a change in factor supplies. This monograph will be a useful resource for mathematicians, economists, and others interested in economic theory and mathematical economics.

Studies in Macroeconomic Theory, Volume 1: Employment and Inflation is a collection of scholarly papers that accounts the development of a microeconomic theory of wage and price decisions and commitments. The book presents some features of the modern inflationary process and makes sense of some still accepted elements in the postclassical macroeconomics of Keynes and Phillips. The papers in this volume are grouped into seven sections. Part I describes disequilibrium models of employment. Part II gives closer scrutiny to the idea of the "natural" rate of unemployment. Part III studies the welfare economics of inflation in an equilibrium context. The fourth part deals with inflation planning. The papers in Part V discuss hypotheses about the causes of the rise in the rate of inflation in two historical episodes: the American inflation between 1955 - 1957 and 1972 - 1974. Part VI addresses some questions in the theory of economic stabilization by monetary and fiscal policy. The final section of this volume attempts to apply to matters of stochastic social choice, stabilization policy being one instance of such a choice, the conception of justice advanced by Rawls. The compendium will be of value to economists and economic policy makers.

The Political Economy of U.S. Tariffs: An Empirical Analysis provides information pertinent to the political economy of trade barriers. This book discusses the cross-sectional regression analysis across industries to understand why some industries have been more privileged than others. Organized into seven chapters, this book begins with an overview of the structure of protection and identifies the primary actors or principles that condition the formation of trade policy more generally. This text then evaluates the institutional and theoretical reasons why political leverage should not be expected to play a significant role in explaining tariffs. Other chapters consider the notion that the structure of protection at any point in time represents some sort of equilibrium. This book discusses as well the distinction between nominal and effective tariffs. The final chapter deals with individual regressors and groups of regressors. This book is a valuable resource for economists and specialists in quantitative analysis.

Arrow Impossibility Theorems is a 10-chapter text that describes existing impossibility theorems. This book explores a number of formalizations of ethical constraints of the theorems. After an introduction to the framework and notation for Arrow impossibility theorems, this book goes on discussing some concepts and an apparatus of relations among those concepts which are important for the theorems. Other chapters present some impossibility results that serve to point out serious difficulties in some plausible escape routes from the theorems of earlier chapters. The final chapter describes important areas of research that have arisen in the collective choice field in the transition away from studying the conditions of Arrow''s theorem alone to the totality of all impossibility theorems. This book is intended primarily for economists.

Economic Theory and Mathematical Economics: Mathematics for Stability and Optimization of Economic Systems provides information pertinent to the stability aspects and optimization methods relevant to various economic systems. This book presents relevant mathematical theorems sufficient to develop important economic systems, including Leontief input–output systems, Keynesian dynamic models, the Ramsey optimal accumulation systems, and von Neumann expanding economic systems. Organized into two parts encompassing nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of useful theorems on matrices, eigenvalue problems, and matrices with dominant diagonals and P-matrices. This text then explores the linear transformations on vector spaces. Other chapters consider the Hawkins–Simon theorem concerning non-negative linear systems. This book discusses as well the dual linear relations and optimization methods applicable to inequality economic systems. The final chapter deals with powerful optimal control method for dynamical systems. This book is a valuable resource for mathematicians, economists, research workers, and graduate students.

Methodology of Economics and Other Social Sciences covers the problems in the methodological aspects of economics and other social science disciplines. This book is organized into seven parts encompassing 26 chapters. The first parts review the nature and significance of methodology of economics, along with the models and theories in the field. The succeeding parts deal with the verification problems, operational concepts, and interpretation of reality in economics. Other parts explore the methodological aspects of other social sciences. The last parts discuss some aspects and applications of economic methodologies. This book will be of value to economists, social scientists, and researchers.

A Theory of International Trade Under Uncertainty analyzes international trade in goods and securities in the presence of uncertainty using an integrated general equilibrium framework that recognizes the dependence of markets for goods on financial markets and vice versa. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated by means of applications to questions such as the effects of international trade on resource allocation, tariff policy, and intervention in financial capital markets. Results which are important for theoretical as well as policy oriented applications are presented. Comprised of 11 chapters, this volume begins with an introduction to some of the fundamental elements of the deterministic Ricardian and Heckscher-Ohlin theories of international trade. Relevant elements from the theory of decision making under uncertainty are then discussed, along with the behavior of firms and consumers-investors in an economy with stock markets. Subsequent chapters focus on problems of commercial policy; gains from trade in goods and securities; and issues of intervention in financial capital markets. The book concludes by describing a dynamic model of international trade that contains an infinite horizon and takes into account the trade-off between present period consumption and savings. An example that illustrates an equilibrium structure of the dynamic model is presented. This monograph is intended for economists who are interested in international trade or international finance, including graduate students who specialize in these fields.

Distributional Consequences of Direct Foreign Investment examines the net effect of direct foreign investment (DFI) on both U.S. employment demand in the short run and on the level and distribution of domestic income in the long run. Topics covered range from measurement of home-foreign substitution to the employment impact of DFI and the long-run distributional consequences of overseas investment. Short-run labor market adjustments to unemployment resulting from overseas production transfers are also discussed. Comprised of nine chapters, this volume begins with a survey of existing studies of the DFI phenomenon that critically evaluates the question of what firms would or could have done in the absence of a DFI alternative. The reader is then introduced to an alternative framework within which to estimate the degree of substitutability of home for foreign production. This framework consists of a microeconomic model of the multinational firm as it operates under two alternative policy regimes, one of which places no restrictions on the firm''s activities and the second denies it the option of establishing a foreign production subsidiary. Input-output techniques, together with information on substitutability, are used to obtain estimates of the net employment impact of DFI. A probabilistic model of an industry labor market is also presented. In addition, the book analyzes the effect of technology transfer through licensing on the size and composition of domestic income. This monograph will be useful to practitioners who employ econometrics and mathematical economics.

Economic Theory, Econometrics, and Mathematical Economics, Second Edition: Forecasting Economic Time Series presents the developments in time series analysis and forecasting theory and practice. This book discusses the application of time series procedures in mainstream economic theory and econometric model building. Organized into 10 chapters, this edition begins with an overview of the problem of dealing with time series possessing a deterministic seasonal component. This text then provides a description of time series in terms of models known as the time-domain approach. Other chapters consider an alternative approach, known as spectral or frequency-domain analysis, that often provides useful insights into the properties of a series. This book discusses as well a unified approach to the fitting of linear models to a given time series. The final chapter deals with the main advantage of having a Gaussian series wherein the optimal single series, least-squares forecast will be a linear forecast. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Portfolio Theory: With Application to Bank Asset Management provides information pertinent to the fundamental aspects of the management of bank assets and liabilities. This book presents the mean-variance approach to obtain many analytical results and a complete insight into the portfolio selection problem. Organized into 16 chapters, this book begins with an overview of the formalization of decision-making under uncertainty. This text then presents the construction and complete analysis of a Markowitz-type portfolio selection model. Other chapters consider the problems of portfolio selection in an inflationary or multicurrency environment. This book discusses as well an approximate technique for constructing a diagonal model at the cost of increasing by one the number of investments and the number of constraints. The final chapter deals with the study of the portfolio selection problem and to the analysis of the properties of the efficient set of the mean variance criterion. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Welfare Effects of Trade Restrictions: A Case Study of the U.S. Footwear Industry evaluates and analyzes the welfare effects of removing trade restrictions on United States imports of nonrubber footwear through the product and employment markets. This book focuses on the structural characteristics of the industry and its adjustment experience to import competition. Organized into four chapters, this book begins with an overview of the detailed structural characteristics of the domestic footwear industry and its degree of competition. This text then provides the analytical framework for estimating the welfare effects of removing trade restrictions on imported footwear by using a consumer surplus approach. Other chapters consider the essential parameters needed in evaluating the foregoing effects of import restrictions on the domestic industry. This book discusses as well the impact of tariff restrictions on imported footwear. The final chapter deals with the trade adjustment assistance experience of the footwear industry. This book is a valuable resource for economists.

Household and Economy: Welfare Economics of Endogenous Fertility deals with welfare economics and the socially optimal population size, as well as the social consequences of individual choice with respect to family size within each generation. The general equilibrium implications of endogenous fertility for a number of issues of population policy are discussed. In addition to their own consumption, the number of children and the utility of each child is assumed to enter the utility function of the parents. Comprised of 10 chapters, this volume begins with a review of social welfare criteria for optimal population size and the static theory of optimal population size, optimal population growth with exogenous fertility, and the theory of endogenous fertility. The reader is then introduced to the basic principles of welfare economics and the economics of externalities, followed by a summary of the traditional theory of household behavior. Subsequent chapters focus on optimal population size according to various social welfare criteria; real and potential externalities generated by the endogeneity of fertility; and the principal alternative reason for having children: to transfer resources from the present to support the future consumption of parents in old age. The book concludes by assessing the implications of endogenous fertility for within-generation income distribution policies and reflecting on the directions in which future research may be fruitful. This monograph will be of value to economists, social scientists, students of welfare economics, and those who wish to understand the contribution of economic analysis to an improved understanding of population policy.

Theory of Technical Change and Economic Invariance: Application of Lie Groups presents the economic invariance problems observable behavior under general transformations such as taste change or technical change. This book covers a variety of topics in economic theory, ranging from the analysis of production functions to the general recoverability problem of optimal dynamic behavior. Organized into nine chapters, this book begins with an overview of the theory of observable behavior by analyzing the invariant relationships among economic variables. This text then examines the Lie group theory which provides one of the most efficient methods of studying invariance properties. Other chapters consider the analysis of exogenous technical change, a process partly due to dynamic market forces of supply and demand. This book discusses as well the topics closely related to parametric changes under Lie groups and related transformations. The final chapter deals with mathematical foundations of the theory of observable market behavior. This book is a valuable resource for economists.