Leonid Grinin – författare

This book presents the history of globalization as a network-based story in the context of Big History. Departing from the traditional historic discourse, in which communities, cities, and states serve as the main units of analysis, the authors instead trace the historical emergence, growth, interconnection, and merging of various types of networks that have gradually encompassed the globe. They also focus on the development of certain ideas, processes, institutions, and phenomena that spread through those networks to become truly global.

The book specifies five macro-periods in the history of globalization and comprehensively covers the first four, from roughly the 9th – 7th millennia BC to World War I. For each period, it identifies the most important network-related developments that facilitated (or even spurred on) such transitions and had the greatest impacts on the history of globalization.

By analyzing the world system''s transition to new levels of complexityand connectivity, the book provides valuable insights into the course of Big History and the evolution of human societies.

The 21st century has witnessed a considerable and increasing number of political revolutions around the world. This contradicts the popular belief of many experts in the 1970s that revolutions occurred mainly in monarchies and empires. Instead, the revolutions of this century have several new characteristics, which call for a renewed analysis of the subject.

This handbook offers a comparative perspective on the new wave of revolutions of the last decade. Presenting case studies on the color revolutions, the Arab revolutions of 2010–2011, and the global wave of revolutions in 2013–2018 that spanned regions ranging from Africa to the Caucasus, it offers a better understanding of the varied forms, features, and historical backgrounds of revolutions, as well as their causes. Accordingly, it highlights recent revolutions in their historical and world-systems contexts.

​"Once again, this volume demonstrates the kind of open-minded, systematic analysis that the field of revolutionary studies requires." (Prof. George Lawson, Department of International Relations, Australian National University Canberra)

Echoing the famous "The Limits to Growth" report from 1972, this edited volume analyses the changes that the World System has undergone to the present, on the fiftieth anniversary of the original report. During the past fifty years, both the concept and understanding of these limits have significantly changed. This book highlights that the evolution of the World System has approached a new critical milestone, moving into a fundamentally new phase of historical development, when the old economic and social technologies no longer work as efficiently as before or even begin to function counterproductively, which leads the World System into a systemic crisis. 

The book discusses the transition of human society to a new phase state, the shape of which has not yet been determined. New approaches are needed for both, for the analysis of the global situation, and for forecasts. The book is based on an integrated approach including the world-systems, historical and evolutionaryperspectives, as well as a systematic view of society, in which changes in one subsystem cause transformations in others. Through mathematical modeling, it defines the main vectors of transformations of the World System; makes a detailed forecast of the development of all the main subsystems of the society and the World System, while presenting horizons of changes from short-term to ultra-long-term; and presents different development scenarios as well as recommendations on how to achieve a transition to the most favorable scenario. 

The book will appeal to members and followers of the Club of Rome, policy-makers, as well as to scholars from various disciplines interested in a better understanding of the World System evolution, global futures, development studies, climate change, and future societies. 

This book explores the global technological transformations that have shaped development of society for eons, from the emergence of Homo sapiens to the modern day. Looking at a potential future for all of this century and the beginning of the next, the book explores how society is changing as a result of the two most powerful trends: technological advances and global aging. It studies the forthcoming technological wave – the Cybernetic Revolution, which will encompass AI, medical technology and biotechnology, robotics, cognitive, nanotechnology etc. In turn, it shows why and how global aging will become one of the most powerful factors, influencing the evolution of society and the World System as a whole. Lastly, the book demonstrates how technological innovations can change the way people live and the society of the future, assessing both the new opportunities and threats posed by uncontrolled technological progress. Accordingly, it will appeal to social scientists, political scientists, economists and historians who are interested in technological transformations and their social and economic impacts.

This book explores periodization in Big History against the background of complexity growth across the Universe, on our planet, and in biological, social, and cultural systems. It traces the accelerating rise in complexity throughout history and the major historical transformations involved in the evolution of life, humans, and civilization. It draws on concepts from physics and evolutionary biology to offer potential models of the underlying mechanisms driving this acceleration, along with potential clues to how it might end.

In the editors’ introduction (Chapter 1), the effort to periodize is placed within the historical context along with considerations from complexity science. Subsequent chapters explore various aspects of periodization and complexity by (a) identifying symmetrical cosmic and biosocial trends, (b) testing rigor and criteria for evaluating periodization, (c) attempting to integrate different approaches through multiple perspectives, (d) proposing different strategies for determining geometric patterns in terrestrial bio-social evolution, and (e) applying the traditional threshold model to gain insights into possible future pathways. A concluding chapter identifies commonalities, research gaps, and possible approaches to integration as the current state of the world system rapidly evolves, while also offering a deeper understanding of complexity dynamics and historical processes. Each chapter includes an extensive bibliography, allowing a deeper and more detailed examination of the issues covered.

This new monograph provides a stimulating new take on hotly contested topics in world modernization and the globalizing economy. It begins by situating what is called the Great Divergence--the social/technological revolution that led European nations to outpace the early dominance of Asia--in historical context over centuries. This is contrasted with an equally powerful Great Convergence, the recent economic and technological expansion taking place in Third World nations and characterized by narrowing inequity among nations. They are seen here as two phases of an inevitable global process, centuries in the making, with the potential for both positive and negative results.

This sophisticated presentation examines:

Why the developing world is growing more rapidly than the developed world.

A work of rare scope, Great Divergence and Great Convergence gives sociologists, global economists, demographers, and global historians a deeper understanding of the broader movement of social and economic history, combined with a long view of history as it is currently being made; it also offers some thrilling forecasts for global development in the forthcoming decades.

This thought-provoking monograph analyzes long- medium- and short-term global cycles of prosperity, recession, and depression, plotting them against centuries of important world events. Major research on economic and political cycles is integrated to clarify evolving relationships between the global center and its periphery as well as current worldwide economic upheavals and potential future developments. Central to this survey are successive waves of industrial and, later, technological and cybernetic progress, leading to the current era of globalization and the changes of the roles of both Western powers and former minors players, however that will lead to the formation of the world order without a hegemon. Additionally, the authors predict what they term the Great Convergence, the lessening of inequities between the global core and the rest of the world, including the wealth gap between First and Third World nations.

Among the topics in this ambitious volume:

·         Why politics is often omitted from economic analysis.

·         Why economic cycles are crucial to understanding the modern geopolitical landscape.   

·         How the aging of the developed world will affect world technological and economic future.<

·         The evolving technological forecast for Global North and South.                

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery will inspire discussion and debate among sociologists, global economists, demographers,  global historians, and futurologists. This expert knowledge is necessary for further research, proactive response, and preparedness for a new age of sociopolitical change.