Mario Fedrizzi - Böcker

Decision making is certainly a very crucial component of many human activities. It is, therefore, not surprising that models of decisions play a very important role not only in decision theory but also in areas such as operations Research, Management science, social Psychology etc . . The basic model of a decision in classical normative decision theory has very little in common with real decision making: It portrays a decision as a clear-cut act of choice, performed by one individual decision maker and in which states of nature, possible actions, results and preferences are well and crisply defined. The only compo­ nent in which uncertainty is permitted is the occurence of the different states of nature, for which probabilistic descriptions are allowed. These probabilities are generally assumed to be known numerically, i. e. as single probabili­ ties or as probability distribution functions. Extensions of this basic model can primarily be conceived in three directions: 1. Rather than a single decision maker there are several decision makers involved. This has lead to the areas of game theory, team theory and group decision theory. 2. The preference or utility function is not single valued but rather vector valued. This extension is considered in multiattribute utility theory and in multicritieria analysis. 3.

This work focuses on consensus formation in multiperson decision-making groups using imprecise information. The editors have solicited and organized contributions on this subject from leading experts in the field. The contributors include Ronald Yager, Henri Prade, George Klier, and Janos Fodor, among others. These contributions are concerned with issues related to modelling and monitoring of consensus-reaching processes under fuzzy preferences and fuzzy majorities. The chapters include an array of paradigms, tools and techniques that can help develop new analytical tools for consensus-reaching processes.

Fuzzy Logic in Management demonstrates that difficult problems and changes in the management environment can be more easily handled by bringing fuzzy logic into the practice of management. This explicit theme is developed through the book as follows: Chapter 1, "Management and Intelligent Support Technologies", is a short survey of management leadership and what can be gained from support technologies. Chapter 2, "Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic", provides a short introduction to fuzzy sets, fuzzy relations, the extension principle, fuzzy implications and linguistic variables. Chapter 3, "Group Decision Support Systems", deals with group decision making, and discusses methods for supporting the consensus reaching processes. Chapter 4, "Fuzzy Real Options for Strategic Planning", summarizes research where the fuzzy real options theory was implemented as a series of models. These models were thoroughly tested on a number of real life investments, and validated in 2001. Chapter 5, "Soft Computing Methods for Reducing the Bullwhip Effect", summarizes research work focused on the demand fluctuations in supply chains. The program enhanced existing theoretical frameworks with fuzzy logic modeling. Chapter 6, "Knowledge Management", outlines the collection, storing, transfer and management of knowledge using fuzzy logic. The principles are worked out in detail with software agents. Chapter 7, "Mobile Technology Application", introduces various applications including empirical facts and how mobile technology can be supported with software agents.Implicitly the book develops themes that successful companies should use to (1) master effectiveness and quality in both the details and the whole, (2) build on and work with flexibility, and (3) support continuous learning in both the organizational and the individual level.

Chapter 2, "Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Logic", provides a short introduction to fuzzy sets, fuzzy relations, the extension principle, fuzzy implications and linguistic variables.

We live, unfortunately, in turbulent and difficult times plagued by various political, economic, and social problems, as well as by natural disasters worldwide. Systems become more and more complicated, and this concerns all levels, exemplified first by global political alliances, groups of countries, regions, etc., and secondly, by multinational (global) corporations and companies of all sizes. These same concerns affect all social groups. This all makes decision processes very complicated. In virtually all decision processes in these complicated systems, there are various actors (decision makers) who represent individual subjects (persons, countries, companies, etc.) and their respective interest groups. To reach a meaningful (good) decision, opinions of all such actors must be taken into account or a given decision may be rejected and not implemented. Ideally, a decision would be made after a consensus between the parties involved had been attained. So, consensus is a very desirable situation. In most real-world cases there is considerable uncertainty concerning all aspects of the decision making process. Moreover, opinions, goals, constraints, etc. are usually imprecisely known. This makes the decision making process difficult as one cannot employ conventional "hard" tools.

Thisbook provides readers with a timely and comprehensive yet concise view on the field of fuzzy logic and its real-world applications. The chapters, writtenby authoritative scholars in the field, report on promising new models for dataanalysis, decision making, and systems modeling, with a special emphasis on theirapplications in management science. The book is a token of appreciation from the fuzzy researchcommunity to Professor Christer Carlsson for his long time research and organizationalcommitment, which have among other things resulted in the foundation and success of theInstitute for Advanced Management Systems Research (IAMSR) at Åbo Akademi University, in Åbo(Turku), Finland.  The book serves as timely guide for the fuzzy logic andoperations research communities alike.

The book is a token of appreciation from the fuzzy researchcommunity to Professor Christer Carlsson for his long time research and organizationalcommitment, which have among other things resulted in the foundation and success of theInstitute for Advanced Management Systems Research (IAMSR) at Åbo Akademi University, in Åbo(Turku), Finland.

In the literature of decision analysis it is traditional to rely on the tools provided by probability theory to deal with problems in which uncertainty plays a substantive role. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that uncertainty is a mul­ tifaceted concept in which some of the important facets do not lend themselves to analysis by probability-based methods. One such facet is that of fuzzy imprecision, which is associated with the use of fuzzy predicates exemplified by small, large, fast, near, likely, etc. To be more specific, consider a proposition such as "It is very unlikely that the price of oil will decline sharply in the near future," in which the italicized words play the role of fuzzy predicates. The question is: How can one express the mean­ ing of this proposition through the use of probability-based methods? If this cannot be done effectively in a probabilistic framework, then how can one employ the information provided by the proposition in question to bear on a decision relating to an investment in a company engaged in exploration and marketing of oil? As another example, consider a collection of rules of the form "If X is Ai then Y is B,," j = 1, . . . , n, in which X and Yare real-valued variables and Ai and Bi are fuzzy numbers exemplified by small, large, not very small, close to 5, etc.

The purpose of this volume is to present recent developments in the use of fuzzy sets in broadly perceived interactive optimization and mathematical programming. The introductory sections are followed by material with an emphasis on elements of human interaction and information on software packages and applications. The book is intended to be of use to researchers in the field.

The word consensus has been  frequently used  for centuries, perhaps millenia. People have always deemed it important that decisions having a long lasting impact on groups, countries or even civilizations be arrived at in a consensual manner.  Undoubtedly the complexity of modern world in all its social, technological, economic and cultural dimensions has created new environments where consensus is regarded desirable.  Consensus typically denotes a state of agreement prevailing in a group of agents, human or software.    In the strict sense of the term, consensus means that the agreement be unanimous.  Since such a state is often unreachable or even unnecessary, other less demanding consensus-related notions have been introduced. These typically involve some graded, partial or imprecise concepts. The contributions to this volume define and utilize such less demanding - and thus at the same time more general - notions of consensus.  However, consensus can also refer to a process whereby the state of agreement is reached.  Again this state can be something less stringent than a complete unanimity of all agents regarding all options. The process may involve modifications, resolutions and /or mitigations of the views or inputs of individuals or software agents in order to achieve the state of consensus understood in the more general sense.   The consensus reaching processes call for some soft computational approaches, methods and techniques, notably fuzzy and possibilistic ones. These are needed to accommodate the imprecision in the very meaning of some basic concepts utilized in the definition of consensus as a state of agreement and as a process whereby this state is to be reached. The overall aim of this volume is to provide a comprehensive overview and analysis of the issuesrelated to consensus states and consensual processes.

The word consensus has been  frequently used  for centuries, perhaps millenia. People have always deemed it important that decisions having a long lasting impact on groups, countries or even civilizations be arrived at in a consensual manner.  Undoubtedly the complexity of modern world in all its social, technological, economic and cultural dimensions has created new environments where consensus is regarded desirable.  Consensus typically denotes a state of agreement prevailing in a group of agents, human or software.    In the strict sense of the term, consensus means that the agreement be unanimous.  Since such a state is often unreachable or even unnecessary, other less demanding consensus-related notions have been introduced. These typically involve some graded, partial or imprecise concepts. The contributions to this volume define and utilize such less demanding - and thus at the same time more general - notions of consensus.  However, consensus can also refer to a process whereby the state of agreement is reached.  Again this state can be something less stringent than a complete unanimity of all agents regarding all options. The process may involve modifications, resolutions and /or mitigations of the views or inputs of individuals or software agents in order to achieve the state of consensus understood in the more general sense.   The consensus reaching processes call for some soft computational approaches, methods and techniques, notably fuzzy and possibilistic ones. These are needed to accommodate the imprecision in the very meaning of some basic concepts utilized in the definition of consensus as a state of agreement and as a process whereby this state is to be reached. The overall aim of this volume is to provide a comprehensive overview and analysis of the issuesrelated to consensus states and consensual processes.

These four volumes (CCIS 297, 298, 299, 300) constitute the proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2012, held in Catania, Italy, in July 2012.The 258 revised full papers presented together with six invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on fuzzy machine learning and on-line modeling; computing with words and decision making; soft computing in computer vision; rough sets and complex data analysis: theory and applications; intelligent databases and information system; information fusion systems; philosophical and methodological aspects of soft computing; basic issues in rough sets; 40th anniversary of the measures of fuziness; SPS11 uncertainty in profiling systems and applications; handling uncertainty with copulas; formal methods to deal with uncertainty of many-valued events; linguistic summarization and description of data; fuzzy implications: theory and applications; sensing and data mining for teaching and learning; theory and applications of intuitionistic fuzzy sets; approximate aspects of data mining and database analytics; fuzzy numbers and their applications; information processing and management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems; aggregation functions; imprecise probabilities; probabilistic graphical models with imprecision: theory and applications; belief function theory: basics and/or applications; fuzzy uncertainty in economics and business; new trends in De Finetti's approach; fuzzy measures and integrals; multicriteria decision making; uncertainty in privacy and security; uncertainty in the spirit of Pietro Benvenuti; coopetition; game theory; probabilistic approach.

These four volumes (CCIS 297, 298, 299, 300) constitute the proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2012, held in Catania, Italy, in July 2012.The 258 revised full papers presented together with six invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on fuzzy machine learning and on-line modeling; computing with words and decision making; soft computing in computer vision; rough sets and complex data analysis: theory and applications; intelligent databases and information system; information fusion systems; philosophical and methodological aspects of soft computing; basic issues in rough sets; 40th anniversary of the measures of fuziness; SPS11 uncertainty in profiling systems and applications; handling uncertainty with copulas; formal methods to deal with uncertainty of many-valued events; linguistic summarization and description of data; fuzzy implications: theory and applications; sensing and data mining for teaching and learning; theory and applications of intuitionistic fuzzy sets; approximate aspects of data mining and database analytics; fuzzy numbers and their applications; information processing and management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems; aggregation functions; imprecise probabilities; probabilistic graphical models with imprecision: theory and applications; belief function theory: basics and/or applications; fuzzy uncertainty in economics and business; new trends in De Finetti's approach; fuzzy measures and integrals; multicriteria decision making; uncertainty in privacy and security; uncertainty in the spirit of Pietro Benvenuti; coopetition; game theory; probabilistic approach.

These four volumes (CCIS 297, 298, 299, 300) constitute the proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2012, held in Catania, Italy, in July 2012.The 258 revised full papers presented together with six invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on fuzzy machine learning and on-line modeling; computing with words and decision making; soft computing in computer vision; rough sets and complex data analysis: theory and applications; intelligent databases and information system; information fusion systems; philosophical and methodological aspects of soft computing; basic issues in rough sets; 40th anniversary of the measures of fuziness; SPS11 uncertainty in profiling systems and applications; handling uncertainty with copulas; formal methods to deal with uncertainty of many-valued events; linguistic summarization and description of data; fuzzy implications: theory and applications; sensing and data mining for teaching and learning; theory and applications of intuitionistic fuzzy sets; approximate aspects of data mining and database analytics; fuzzy numbers and their applications; information processing and management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems; aggregation functions; imprecise probabilities; probabilistic graphical models with imprecision: theory and applications; belief function theory: basics and/or applications; fuzzy uncertainty in economics and business; new trends in De Finetti's approach; fuzzy measures and integrals; multicriteria decision making; uncertainty in privacy and security; uncertainty in the spirit of Pietro Benvenuti; coopetition; game theory; probabilistic approach.

These four volumes (CCIS 297, 298, 299, 300) constitute the proceedings of the 14th International Conference on Information Processing and Management of Uncertainty in Knowledge-Based Systems, IPMU 2012, held in Catania, Italy, in July 2012. The 258 revised full papers presented together with six invited talks were carefully reviewed and selected from numerous submissions. The papers are organized in topical sections on fuzzy machine learning and on-line modeling; computing with words and decision making; soft computing in computer vision; rough sets and complex data analysis: theory and applications; intelligent databases and information system; information fusion systems; philosophical and methodological aspects of soft computing; basic issues in rough sets; 40th anniversary of the measures of fuziness; SPS11 uncertainty in profiling systems and applications; handling uncertainty with copulas; formal methods to deal with uncertainty of many-valued events; linguistic summarization and description of data; fuzzy implications: theory and applications; sensing and data mining for teaching and learning; theory and applications of intuitionistic fuzzy sets; approximate aspects of data mining and database analytics; fuzzy numbers and their applications; information processing and management of uncertainty in knowledge-based systems; aggregation functions; imprecise probabilities; probabilistic graphical models with imprecision: theory and applications; belief function theory: basics and/or applications; fuzzy uncertainty in economics and business; new trends in De Finetti's approach; fuzzy measures and integrals; multi criteria decision making; uncertainty in privacy and security; uncertainty in the spirit of Pietro Benvenuti; coopetition; game theory; probabilistic approach.

Risk is a crucial element in virtually all problems people in diverse areas face in their activities. It is impossible to find adequate models and solutions without taking it into account. Due to uncertainty and complexity in those problems, traditional "hard" tools and techniques may be insufficient for their formulation and solution. This is the first book in the literature that shows how soft computing methods (fuzzy logic, neural networks, genetic algorithms, etc. ) can be employed to deal with various problems related to risk analysis, evaluation and management in various fields of technology, environment and finance.