Mthuli Ncube – författare

In 1994 South Africa saw the end of apartheid. The new era of political freedom was seen as the foundation for economic prosperity and inclusion. The last two decades have seen mixed results. Economic growth has been volatile. While inequalities in public services have been reduced, income inequality has increased, and poverty has remained stagnant. As the twentieth anniversary of the transition to democracy approaches in 2014, the economic policy debates in South Africa are in full flow. They combine a stocktake of the various programs of the last two decades with a forward looking discussion of strategy in the face of an ever open but volatile global economy. Underlying the discourse are basic and often unresolved differences on an appropriate strategy for an economy like South Africa, with a strong natural resource base but with deeply entrenched inherited inequalities, especially across race. This volume contributes to the policy and analytical debate by pulling together perspectives on a range of issues: micro, macro, sectoral, country wide and global, from leading economists working on South Africa. Other than the requirement that it be analytical and not polemical, the contributors were given freedom to put forward their particular perspective on their topic. The economists invited are from within South Africa and from outside; from academia and the policy world; from international and national level economic policy agencies. The contributors include recognized world leaders in South African economic analysis, as well as the very best of the younger crop of economists who are working on the study of South Africa, the next generation of leaders in thought and policy.

This book reviews the current trends and challenges of regional integration and trade in Africa. It provides valuable policy recommendations aimed at stimulating the debate among the government, private sector and development community on the ways to promote regional trade for Africa's economic development.

This book identifies channels that amplify these shock effects, the relevance of third country transmission effects and the effects of the first and second rounds of US quantitative easing.

The emergence of the African middle class as a driver of Africa’s economic growth stands out as an important milestone in Africa’s contemporary economic history. This growth, though uneven, is a source of hope for Africa, but also a signal to the rest of the world on the prospects for economic recovery and renewal, particularly because it has been steady despite the global downturn.The Emerging Middle Class in Africa analyses specific aspects of the lives of the middle class in Africa. It looks at how people become and remain in the middle class through a series of thematic chapters. It examines how behaviour changes in the process, in terms of consumption patterns and spending on health and education. A further dimension of this analysis is how class impacts on gender relations and whether women are able to reap the same benefits of social advancement available to men. Africa is a continent of such scale and diversity that experiences across countries vary widely. The book thus captures the common patterns across the continent.This text is primarily aimed at Africanist researchers, policy makers, development practitioners, and bilateral and multilateral institutions, as well as students of African studies, political science, political economy, development studies, and development economics.

The emergence of the African middle class as a driver of Africa’s economic growth stands out as an important milestone in Africa’s contemporary economic history. This growth, though uneven, is a source of hope for Africa, but also a signal to the rest of the world on the prospects for economic recovery and renewal, particularly because it has been steady despite the global downturn.The Emerging Middle Class in Africa analyses specific aspects of the lives of the middle class in Africa. It looks at how people become and remain in the middle class through a series of thematic chapters. It examines how behaviour changes in the process, in terms of consumption patterns and spending on health and education. A further dimension of this analysis is how class impacts on gender relations and whether women are able to reap the same benefits of social advancement available to men. Africa is a continent of such scale and diversity that experiences across countries vary widely. The book thus captures the common patterns across the continent.This text is primarily aimed at Africanist researchers, policy makers, development practitioners, and bilateral and multilateral institutions, as well as students of African studies, political science, political economy, development studies, and development economics.

Good infrastructure is essential for socio-economic growth and sustainable development. Safe and accessible water supplies, reliable energy, good transport networks and communications technology are all vital to a region’s development agenda.This book presents a comprehensive exploration of the state of infrastructure in Africa and provides an integrated analysis of the challenges the sector faces, based on extensive fieldwork across the continent. Contributors with a wide range of expertise challenge current policy, practice and thinking on issues including the politics of infrastructure development, social inclusion, domestic resource mobilisation and infrastructure financing. The book will be an important resource for academic researchers, students and early career development professionals as well as policymakers and NGOs engaged in dialoguing the infrastructure development options for Africa.

Good infrastructure is essential for socio-economic growth and sustainable development. Safe and accessible water supplies, reliable energy, good transport networks and communications technology are all vital to a region’s development agenda.This book presents a comprehensive exploration of the state of infrastructure in Africa and provides an integrated analysis of the challenges the sector faces, based on extensive fieldwork across the continent. Contributors with a wide range of expertise challenge current policy, practice and thinking on issues including the politics of infrastructure development, social inclusion, domestic resource mobilisation and infrastructure financing. The book will be an important resource for academic researchers, students and early career development professionals as well as policymakers and NGOs engaged in dialoguing the infrastructure development options for Africa.

This volume empirically analyzes the effects of quantitative easing (QE) on interest rates and the economy in the US, Japan, UK and Europe. Using an event-study methodology, the authors find that the measures undertaken by the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, which focus primarily on bond purchases, are much more effective in lowering interest rates than those undertaken by the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, which have relied more heavily on lending to private financial institutions. Using large Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) models they also analyze the impact of QE on the wider economy. They produce no-QE counterfactual forecasts that are compared with their corresponding baseline forecasts, incorporating the effects of QE on government bond spreads. Despite the failure of stimulating economic activities as a whole, the simulation results suggest that the unconventional monetary policies have a positive influence on industrial production in the US, UK and Japan. The authors’ analysis finds that QE contributes to the reduction in unemployment in the US and Japan, and a rise in inflation-expectations in the US, UK and Euro zone. However, evidence on QE’s effect on house prices, stock prices, consumer confidence, and exchange rate, is mixed and thus inconclusive.

This book examines the macroeconomic and regulatory impact of domestic and international shocks on the South African economy resulting from the 2009 financial crisis.  It also assesses the impact of the US economy’s eventual recovery from the crisis and the prospect of higher US interest rates in future. Told in three parts, the book explores associations between economic growth, policy uncertainty and the key domestic and international transmission channels, and transmission effects, of global financial regulatory and domestic macro-economic uncertainties on subdued and volatile economic recovery, financial channels, lending rate margins, and credit growth. The book concludes by extending its focus to the role of US monetary policy, capital flows and rand/US dollar volatility on the South African economy.