Raymond S. Nickerson - Böcker

This book identifies areas that represent new needs and opportunities for human factors research in the coming decades. It is forward-looking, problem oriented, and selectively focused on national or global problems, including productivity in organizations, education and training, employment and disabilities, health care, and environmental change; technology issues, including communications technology and telenetworking, information access and usability, emerging technologies, automation, and flexible manufacturing, and advanced transportation systems; and human performance, including cognitive performance under stress and aiding intellectual work.

Cognitive psychology is the basis of many applications in almost every area of technology, business, industry, and education. This book provides workers in applied arenas with presentations of research aimed directly at the problems and issues that confront them. It will cover key areas including business and industry, computers and technology, education and information, and health and law.

Some of today's educational experts were asked to envision the year 2020, when technology has assumed a major role in elementary and secondary education. The informed conjecture that followed is contained in this volume; contributors offer visions of the future as well as specific steps that could turn those visions into realities. Innovative ideas for research, development, hardware, software, teacher training, technical assistance, organizational and cultural change are offered as a means to illuminate the potential role of technology in the educational systems of tomorrow. Technology in Education is a thought-provoking statement of what can and should be done to advance the application of technology to education over the next few decades. As such, it should be read by all researchers and professionals in educational technology.

Some of today's educational experts were asked to envision the year 2020, when technology has assumed a major role in elementary and secondary education. The informed conjecture that followed is contained in this volume; contributors offer visions of the future as well as specific steps that could turn those visions into realities. Innovative ideas for research, development, hardware, software, teacher training, technical assistance, organizational and cultural change are offered as a means to illuminate the potential role of technology in the educational systems of tomorrow. Technology in Education is a thought-provoking statement of what can and should be done to advance the application of technology to education over the next few decades. As such, it should be read by all researchers and professionals in educational technology.

This volume aims to review some of the recent developments and trends that seem especially relevant to any attempt to understand near-term-future possibilities; to consider what a variety of knowledgeable people are saying about changes and developments that could occur; and to relate the possibilities to needs and opportunities for human factors research. Human factors, in this case, includes not only the implications of human capabilities and limitations for the design of equipment and machines intended for human use, but also applied psychology in a more general sense. In particular, it is taken to involve social systems as well as physical ones, the interaction of people with the environment as well as with machines, the facilitation of communication between people as well as between people and computers, and the design of policies and procedures as well as the design of equipment. The author's intention is to focus on anticipated problems -- including opportunities as well as difficulties -- and ask how human factors research might contribute to solutions. It is assumed that there are ways in which such research could be useful in addressing societal problems that the profession has not yet realized and that these are more likely to be recognized in the future if the community is actively seeking to identify them.

This book stimulates thinking on the topic of detrimental environmental change and how research psychologists can help to address the problem. In addition to reporting environmentally relevant psychological research, the author identifies the most pressing questions from an environmental point of view. Psychology and Environmental Change:*focuses on ways in which human behavior contributes to the problem;*deals with the assessment and change of attitudes and with studies of change of behavior;*proposes ways in which psychological research can contribute to making technology and its products more environmentally benign; and *introduces topics such as consumption, risk assessment, cost-benefit and tradeoff analyses, competition, negotiation, and policymaking, and how they relate to the objective of protecting the environment.

This book stimulates thinking on the topic of detrimental environmental change and how research psychologists can help to address the problem. In addition to reporting environmentally relevant psychological research, the author identifies the most pressing questions from an environmental point of view. Psychology and Environmental Change:*focuses on ways in which human behavior contributes to the problem;*deals with the assessment and change of attitudes and with studies of change of behavior;*proposes ways in which psychological research can contribute to making technology and its products more environmentally benign; and *introduces topics such as consumption, risk assessment, cost-benefit and tradeoff analyses, competition, negotiation, and policymaking, and how they relate to the objective of protecting the environment.

Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

This book is an adaptation of a report entitled Notes about Reasoning, prepared under a project on The Training of Higher Cognitive Learning and Thinking Skills that was sponsored by the National Institute of Education. My purpose in producing the notes was to help me clarify my own thinking about reasoning and how the ability to reason effectively might be enhanced in the classroom. I did not intend to write a textbook on reasoning or a scholarly review of research on reasoning processes, and this book is not presented as either now. It still has the character of a collection of thoughts; it is being published with the hope that some of the ideas and suggestions in it may stimulate some others, especially teachers and students, to reflect more than they otherwise might have upon what it means to reason effectively. One does not, of course, become an effective reasoner by reading a book on reasoning or by taking a course in reasoning. Learning to reason well is surely a lifelong process—or at least a lifelong challenge. If this book is useful in helping some readers to see the value of an enduring commitment to that challenge, it will have served its purpose. I wish to thank the NIE Project Officers, Patricia Butler and Joseph Psotka, for their support and encouragement. I am grateful also to John Swets, Richard Herrnstein, David Perkins and Carol Chomsky for helpful comments on an early draft of the manuscript, to Anne Kerwin and Patricia Carroll for typing the manuscript and to Brenda Starr and Frank DiPace for making electronic delivery of it to the printer possible by working around the differences between the sending and receiving systems. Special thanks to my wife, Doris, for her constant help of countless types, and most especially for bringing into the world the four beautiful people to whom this book is dedicated.

First published in 1986. Reflections on Reasoning Is a clearly written introduction that guides high school and college students, teachers, and parents through straightforward discussions on the nature of logic, belief, and argument. While examining the nature of reasoning, Nickerson offers practical examples from everyday life to Illustrate how we can become more effective and self-aware in our reasoning.

Drawing from the study of human reasoning, Argumentation describes different types of arguments and explains how they influence beliefs and behaviour. Raymond Nickerson identifies many of the fallacies, biases, and other flaws often found in arguments as well as 'stratagems' (schemes, illogical and alogical tactics) that people regularly use to persuade others. Much attention is given to the evaluation of arguments. Readers will learn a new schematic for evaluating arguments based on cognitive science. As a source for understanding and evaluating arguments in decision-making, it is ideal for courses on cognition, reasoning, and psychology.

Drawing from the study of human reasoning, Argumentation describes different types of arguments and explains how they influence beliefs and behaviour. Raymond Nickerson identifies many of the fallacies, biases, and other flaws often found in arguments as well as 'stratagems' (schemes, illogical and alogical tactics) that people regularly use to persuade others. Much attention is given to the evaluation of arguments. Readers will learn a new schematic for evaluating arguments based on cognitive science. As a source for understanding and evaluating arguments in decision-making, it is ideal for courses on cognition, reasoning, and psychology.

What does it mean to be rational – to reason well and effectively? How does rationality, broadly conceived, relate to the knowledge one acquires, the beliefs one forms, the explanations one constructs or appropriates, the judgments and decisions one makes, the values one adopts? What is the character of human reasoning and, in particular, does it tend to be rational?Much has been written about human rationality – or lack thereof. In recent years, some writers have focused attention on the numerous ways in which people appear not to be rational, at least if being rational is taken to mean always thinking or behaving in accordance with some normative standard. Others have argued that, if human reasoning is as flawed as this work suggests, it is a wonder that we, as a species, are around to notice the fact.This book examines much of the experimental research on reasoning as it relates to a variety of conceptions of rationality, not limited to conformity of thought and behavior or to the dictates of one or another normative system. The discussion focuses on specific topics that represent essential aspects of any adequately inclusive conception of rationality: intelligence and knowledge; beliefs; goals, values and affect; explanations; judgment and choice; understanding and wisdom.

First published in 1986. Reflections on Reasoning Is a clearly written introduction that guides high school and college students, teachers, and parents through straightforward discussions on the nature of logic, belief, and argument. While examining the nature of reasoning, Nickerson offers practical examples from everyday life to Illustrate how we can become more effective and self-aware in our reasoning.