Raymond S. Nickerson – författare

This book identifies areas that represent new needs and opportunities for human factors research in the coming decades. It is forward-looking, problem oriented, and selectively focused on national or global problems, including productivity in organizations, education and training, employment and disabilities, health care, and environmental change; technology issues, including communications technology and telenetworking, information access and usability, emerging technologies, automation, and flexible manufacturing, and advanced transportation systems; and human performance, including cognitive performance under stress and aiding intellectual work.

This book identifies areas that represent new needs and opportunities for human factors research in the coming decades. It is forward-looking, problem oriented, and selectively focused on national or global problems, including productivity in organizations, education and training, employment and disabilities, health care, and environmental change; technology issues, including communications technology and telenetworking, information access and usability, emerging technologies, automation, and flexible manufacturing, and advanced transportation systems; and human performance, including cognitive performance under stress and aiding intellectual work.

This volume aims to review some of the recent developments and trends that seem especially relevant to any attempt to understand near-term-future possibilities; to consider what a variety of knowledgeable people are saying about changes and developments that could occur; and to relate the possibilities to needs and opportunities for human factors research. Human factors, in this case, includes not only the implications of human capabilities and limitations for the design of equipment and machines intended for human use, but also applied psychology in a more general sense. In particular, it is taken to involve social systems as well as physical ones, the interaction of people with the environment as well as with machines, the facilitation of communication between people as well as between people and computers, and the design of policies and procedures as well as the design of equipment. The author''s intention is to focus on anticipated problems -- including opportunities as well as difficulties -- and ask how human factors research might contribute to solutions. It is assumed that there are ways in which such research could be useful in addressing societal problems that the profession has not yet realized and that these are more likely to be recognized in the future if the community is actively seeking to identify them.

This volume aims to review some of the recent developments and trends that seem especially relevant to any attempt to understand near-term-future possibilities; to consider what a variety of knowledgeable people are saying about changes and developments that could occur; and to relate the possibilities to needs and opportunities for human factors research. Human factors, in this case, includes not only the implications of human capabilities and limitations for the design of equipment and machines intended for human use, but also applied psychology in a more general sense. In particular, it is taken to involve social systems as well as physical ones, the interaction of people with the environment as well as with machines, the facilitation of communication between people as well as between people and computers, and the design of policies and procedures as well as the design of equipment. The author''s intention is to focus on anticipated problems -- including opportunities as well as difficulties -- and ask how human factors research might contribute to solutions. It is assumed that there are ways in which such research could be useful in addressing societal problems that the profession has not yet realized and that these are more likely to be recognized in the future if the community is actively seeking to identify them.

Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers'' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals'' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

Lack of ability to think probabilistically makes one prone to a variety of irrational fears and vulnerable to scams designed to exploit probabilistic naiveté, impairs decision making under uncertainty, facilitates the misinterpretation of statistical information, and precludes critical evaluation of likelihood claims. Cognition and Chance presents an overview of the information needed to avoid such pitfalls and to assess and respond to probabilistic situations in a rational way. Dr. Nickerson investigates such questions as how good individuals are at thinking probabilistically and how consistent their reasoning under uncertainty is with principles of mathematical statistics and probability theory. He reviews evidence that has been produced in researchers'' attempts to investigate these and similar types of questions. Seven conceptual chapters address such topics as probability, chance, randomness, coincidences, inverse probability, paradoxes, dilemmas, and statistics. The remaining five chapters focus on empirical studies of individuals'' abilities and limitations as probabilistic thinkers. Topics include estimation and prediction, perception of covariation, choice under uncertainty, and people as intuitive probabilists. Cognition and Chance is intended to appeal to researchers and students in the areas of probability, statistics, psychology, business, economics, decision theory, and social dilemmas.

This book stimulates thinking on the topic of detrimental environmental change and how research psychologists can help to address the problem. In addition to reporting environmentally relevant psychological research, the author identifies the most pressing questions from an environmental point of view. Psychology and Environmental Change: *focuses on ways in which human behavior contributes to the problem; *deals with the assessment and change of attitudes and with studies of change of behavior; *proposes ways in which psychological research can contribute to making technology and its products more environmentally benign; and *introduces topics such as consumption, risk assessment, cost-benefit and tradeoff analyses, competition, negotiation, and policymaking, and how they relate to the objective of protecting the environment.

This book stimulates thinking on the topic of detrimental environmental change and how research psychologists can help to address the problem. In addition to reporting environmentally relevant psychological research, the author identifies the most pressing questions from an environmental point of view. Psychology and Environmental Change: *focuses on ways in which human behavior contributes to the problem; *deals with the assessment and change of attitudes and with studies of change of behavior; *proposes ways in which psychological research can contribute to making technology and its products more environmentally benign; and *introduces topics such as consumption, risk assessment, cost-benefit and tradeoff analyses, competition, negotiation, and policymaking, and how they relate to the objective of protecting the environment.

Some of today''s educational experts were asked to envision the year 2020, when technology has assumed a major role in elementary and secondary education. The informed conjecture that followed is contained in this volume; contributors offer visions of the future as well as specific steps that could turn those visions into realities. Innovative ideas for research, development, hardware, software, teacher training, technical assistance, organizational and cultural change are offered as a means to illuminate the potential role of technology in the educational systems of tomorrow. Technology in Education is a thought-provoking statement of what can and should be done to advance the application of technology to education over the next few decades. As such, it should be read by all researchers and professionals in educational technology.

Some of today''s educational experts were asked to envision the year 2020, when technology has assumed a major role in elementary and secondary education. The informed conjecture that followed is contained in this volume; contributors offer visions of the future as well as specific steps that could turn those visions into realities. Innovative ideas for research, development, hardware, software, teacher training, technical assistance, organizational and cultural change are offered as a means to illuminate the potential role of technology in the educational systems of tomorrow. Technology in Education is a thought-provoking statement of what can and should be done to advance the application of technology to education over the next few decades. As such, it should be read by all researchers and professionals in educational technology.