Thomas A. Louis – författare

Broadening its scope to nonstatisticians, Bayesian Methods for Data Analysis, Third Edition provides an accessible introduction to the foundations and applications of Bayesian analysis. Along with a complete reorganization of the material, this edition concentrates more on hierarchical Bayesian modeling as implemented via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods and related data analytic techniques. New to the Third Edition New data examples, corresponding R and WinBUGS code, and homework problems Explicit descriptions and illustrations of hierarchical modeling—now commonplace in Bayesian data analysisA new chapter on Bayesian design that emphasizes Bayesian clinical trialsA completely revised and expanded section on ranking and histogram estimationA new case study on infectious disease modeling and the 1918 flu epidemicA solutions manual for qualifying instructors that contains solutions, computer code, and associated output for every homework problem—available both electronically and in printIdeal for Anyone Performing Statistical Analyses Focusing on applications from biostatistics, epidemiology, and medicine, this text builds on the popularity of its predecessors by making it suitable for even more practitioners and students.

The workshop was a direct outgrowth of a previous study by the CNSTAT Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas. That panel, established under a 1994 act of Congress, began its work with a very specific mission: to evaluate the suitability of the U.S. Census Bureau's small-area estimates of poor school-age children for use in the allocation of funds to counties and school districts under Title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act. In carrying out their assignment, panel members came to realize that the properties of data sources and statistical procedures used to produce formula estimates, interacting with formula features such as thresholds and hold-harmless provisions, can produce consequences that may not have been anticipated or intended. It also became evident that there is a trade-off between the goals of providing a reasonable amount of stability in funding from one year to the next and redirecting funds to different jurisdictions as true needs change. In one instance, for example, the annual appropriation included a 100 percent hold-harmless provision, ensuring that no recipient would receive less than the year before.However, there was no increase in the total appropriation, with the result that new estimates showing changes in the distribution of program needs across areas had no effect on the allocations. Choosing the Right Formula provides an account of the presentations and discussions at the workshop. The first three chapters cover the overview, case studies, and methodological sessions, respectively. Chapter 4 summarizes the issues discussed in the roundtable and concluding sessions, with emphasis on the identification of questions that might be addressed in a panel study.

In 2000, the federal government distributed over $260 billion of funding to state and local governments via 180 formula programs. These programs promote a wide spectrum of economic and social objectives, such as improving educational outcomes and increasing accessibility to medical care, and many are designed to compensate for differences in fiscal capacity that affect governmentsa (TM) abilities to address identified needs. Large amounts of state revenues are also distributed through formula allocation programs to counties, cities, and other jurisdictions. Statistical Issues in Allocating Funds by Formula identifies key issues concerning the design and use of these formulas and advances recommendations for improving the process. In addition to the more narrow issues relating to formula design and input data, the book discusses broader issues created by the interaction of the political process and the use of formulas to allocate funds. Statistical Issues in Allocating Funds by Formula is only up-to-date guide for policymakers who design fund allocation programs.Congress members who are crafting legislation for these programs and federal employees who are in charge of distributing the funds will find this book indispensable.