Tilmann Betsch - Böcker

From childhood, each of us develops our own personal set of theories and beliefs about the world in which we live. Given the impossibility of knowing about every event that can ever take place, we use cognitive short cuts to try to predict and make sense of the world around us. One of the fundamental pieces of information we use to predict future events, and make sense of past events, is 'frequency' - how often has such an event happened to us, or how often have we observed a particular event? With such information we will make inferences about the likelihood of its future appearance. We will make judgements, assess risk, or even consumer decisions, on the basis of this information. We also form associations between events that frequently occur together, and even (often incorrectly) attribute causality between one event and the other as a result of their simultaneous appearance. How is it though that we process such information? How does our brain deal with information on frequencies? How does such information influence our behaviour, beliefs, and judgements? Important new findings on this topic have come from research within both social and cognitive psychology, though until now, never brought together in a single volume. This is the first book to bring together two disparate literatures on this topic - drawing on research from both cognitive psychology and social psychology. Including contributions from world leaders in the field, this is a timely, and long overdue volume on this topic.

Experience is currently a hot theme in decision making. For a long time, decision research was almost exclusively focused on new decisions and neglected the importance of experience. It took the field until the 1990s for a new direction in research and theorizing to become visible in the literature. There are parallel movements happening in sociology, political science, social psychology, and business.The purpose of this edited book is to provide a balanced and representative overview of what is currently known about the dynamics of experienced-based decision making. The chapters are written by renowned experts in the field and provide the latest theoretical developments, integrative frameworks, and state-of-the-art reviews of research in the laboratory and in the field.

Experience is currently a hot theme in decision making. For a long time, decision research was almost exclusively focused on new decisions and neglected the importance of experience. It took the field until the 1990s for a new direction in research and theorizing to become visible in the literature. There are parallel movements happening in sociology, political science, social psychology, and business.The purpose of this edited book is to provide a balanced and representative overview of what is currently known about the dynamics of experienced-based decision making. The chapters are written by renowned experts in the field and provide the latest theoretical developments, integrative frameworks, and state-of-the-art reviews of research in the laboratory and in the field.

The central goal of this volume is to bring the learning perspective into the discussion of intuition in judgment and decision making. The book gathers recent work on intuitive decision making that goes beyond the current dominant heuristic processing perspective. However, that does not mean that the book will strictly oppose this perspective. The unique perspective of this book will help to tie together these different conceptualizations of intuition and develop an integrative approach to the psychological understanding of intuition in judgment and decision making. Accordingly, some of the chapters reflect prior research from the heuristic processing perspective in the new light of the learning perspective.This book provides a representative overview of what we currently know about intuition in judgment and decision making. The authors provide latest theoretical developments, integrative frameworks and state-of-the-art reviews of research in the laboratory and in the field. Moreover, some chapters deal with applied topics. Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making aims not only at the interest of students and researchers of psychology, but also at scholars from neighboring social and behavioral sciences such as economy, sociology, political sciences, and neurosciences.

The central goal of this volume is to bring the learning perspective into the discussion of intuition in judgment and decision making. The book gathers recent work on intuitive decision making that goes beyond the current dominant heuristic processing perspective. However, that does not mean that the book will strictly oppose this perspective. The unique perspective of this book will help to tie together these different conceptualizations of intuition and develop an integrative approach to the psychological understanding of intuition in judgment and decision making. Accordingly, some of the chapters reflect prior research from the heuristic processing perspective in the new light of the learning perspective.This book provides a representative overview of what we currently know about intuition in judgment and decision making. The authors provide latest theoretical developments, integrative frameworks and state-of-the-art reviews of research in the laboratory and in the field. Moreover, some chapters deal with applied topics. Intuition in Judgment and Decision Making aims not only at the interest of students and researchers of psychology, but also at scholars from neighboring social and behavioral sciences such as economy, sociology, political sciences, and neurosciences.

Dieser Band enthält 15 der insgesamt 19 Vorträge der Tagung "Kluges Entscheiden" der Staatswissenschaftlichen Fakultät der Universität Erfurt, eine Zusammenfassung der Ergebnisse der Diskussion in den Arbeitsgruppen (im Vorwort) und eine Zusammenfassung der abschließenden Plenumsdiskussion (im Ausblick). Der Sammelband führt Wissenschaftler aus den Bereichen Institutionenökonomie, Mikroökonomie, Organisationswissenschaft, Politikwissenschaft, Psychologie, Rechtswissenschaft und Soziologie zu einem disziplinübergreifenden Diskurs zusammen. Dieser findet seinen Auftakt in drei übergreifenden Referaten, in denen in teils theoretischer, teils erfahrungsbasierter Weise die Bedeutung von Klugheitsfaktoren für juristische und ökonomische Entscheidungen reflektiert wird. Die anschließenden Beiträge aus der Arbeitsgruppe "Individuelles Entscheiden" stellen empirische Arbeiten vor, die sich mit dem Einfluss von Emotionen auf das individuelle Entscheidungsverhalten beschäftigten. In den Beiträgen zur Arbeitsgruppe "Organisationales Entscheiden" wird der Umgang mit Unsicherheiten und Risiken in Organisationen in einer für die Organisationsforschung und -praxis produktiven Weise erfasst. Im Rahmen des politischen Entscheidens erweisen sich die Ziele oft als zu divergent und die Mittel zu unsicher, um kluges Verhalten unmittelbar anzustreben. Die Beiträge zu dieser Arbeitsgruppe verfolgen deshalb die Intention, Verfahren und Rahmenbedingungen zu definieren, die die Chancen für kluges Entscheiden erhöhen. Der Ausblick verweist zusammenfassend auf die verschiedenen Reflexionsebenen des Klugheitskonzepts und die auf diesen Ebenen zu verortenden Klugheitspotentiale.

Im zweiten Teil „Urteilen“ lernt der Leser die menschlichen Strategien und Regeln der Urteilsbildung kennen und wie Urteile sozial, emotional und motivational beeinflusst werden.

Was ist eigentlich Wissenschaft? Diese Frage wird angesichts globaler Herausforderungen wie COVID-19, dem Klimawandel u.a. zunehmend neu diskutiert – und wir erleben eine beängstigende Zunahme des Widerstandes gegen die wissenschaftlichen Methoden aufseiten sogenannter Querdenker, Verschwörungstheoretiker und Faktenleugner. Doch viele kritisieren die Wissenschaft, ohne den Kern wissenschaftlichen Denkens und Arbeitens verstanden zu haben! Prof. Dr. Tilmann Betsch tritt diesem Trend mit seinem Buch entschlossen entgegen und hält ein leidenschaftliches Plädoyer, warum Wissenschaft unverzichtbar ist: Anhand anschaulicher Beispiele und Anekdoten beschreibt er die Bestandteile des wissenschaftlichen Werkzeugkastens – jedes Kapitel klärt dabei ein gängiges Vorurteil gegenüber der Wissenschaft auf und zeigt, mit welchen Methoden Erkenntnisse in der Forschung wirklich gewonnen werden.Dieses Buch gibt Ihnen Hilfestellung, Ihr kritisches Denken zu schärfen und Unfug schlagfertig entgegenzutreten. Es richtet sich damit nicht nur an Studierende der Wissenschaften, sondern an alle Interessierten, die „alternative Fakten“ nicht mehr hören können und für Diskussionen um die Bedeutung der Wissenschaft gewappnet sein wollen.