American Geophysical Union – serie

Oil and natural gas represent more than 50 percent of the worldwide energy supply, with high energy demand driven by population growth and improving standards of living. Despite significant progress in reducing the amount of oil in the sea from consumption, exploration, transportation, and production, risks remain. This report, the fourth in a series, documents the current state-of-knowledge on inputs, fates and effects of oil in the sea, reflecting almost 20 additional years of research, including long-term effects from spills such as the Exxon Valdez and a decade-long boom in oil spill science research following the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.The report finds that land-based sources of oil are the biggest input of oil to the sea, far outweighing other sources, and it also notes that the effects of chronic inputs on the marine environment, such as land-based runoff, are very different than that from an acute input, such as a spill. Steps to prevent chronic land-based oil inputs include reducing gasoline vehicle usage, improving fuel efficiency, increasing usage of electric vehicles, replacing older vehicles. The report identifies research gaps and provides specific recommendations aimed at preventing future accidental spills and ensuring oil spill responders are equipped with the best response tools and information to limit oil's impact on the marine environment.

We live in a time of extraordinary discovery and progress in astronomy and astrophysics. The next decade will transform our understanding of the universe and humanity's place in it. Every decade the U.S. agencies that provide primary federal funding for astronomy and astrophysics request a survey to assess the status of, and opportunities for the Nation's efforts to forward our understanding of the cosmos. Pathways to Discovery in Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 2020s identifies the most compelling science goals and presents an ambitious program of ground- and space-based activities for future investment in the next decade and beyond. The decadal survey identifies three important science themes for the next decade aimed at investigating Earth-like extrasolar planets, the most energetic processes in the universe, and the evolution of galaxies. The Astro2020 report also recommends critical near-term actions to support the foundations of the profession as well as the technologies and tools needed to carry out the science.

The next decade of planetary science and astrobiology holds tremendous promise. New research will expand our understanding of our solar system's origins, how planets form and evolve, under what conditions life can survive, and where to find potentially habitable environments in our solar system and beyond. Origins, Worlds, and Life: A Decadal Strategy for Planetary Science and Astrobiology 2023-2032 highlights key science questions, identifies priority missions, and presents a comprehensive research strategy that includes both planetary defense and human exploration. This report also recommends ways to support the profession as well as the technologies and infrastructure needed to carry out the science.

The Earth system functions and connects in unexpected ways - from the microscopic interactions of bacteria and rocks to the macro-scale processes that build and erode mountains and regulate Earth's climate. Efforts to study Earth's intertwined processes are made even more pertinent and urgent by the need to understand how the Earth can continue to sustain both civilization and the planet's biodiversity.A Vision for NSF Earth Sciences 2020-2030: Earth in Time provides recommendations to help the National Science Foundation plan and support the next decade of Earth science research, focusing on research priorities, infrastructure and facilities, and partnerships. This report presents a compelling and vibrant vision of the future of Earth science research.

Research in biological and physical sciences in space provides the critical scientific and technological foundations that make space exploration possible. As humanity looks towards the Moon and Mars for future missions, this work is needed to help astronauts adapt and live in the harsh environments of space. Thriving in Space provides a roadmap for increasing national investment in biological and physical science research, from experiments to infrastructure to education. This report identifies key scientific questions, priorities, and ambitious research campaigns that will enable human space exploration and transform our understanding of how the universe works.Thriving in Space reviews the state of knowledge in the current and emerging areas of space-related biological and physical sciences research and generates recommendations for a comprehensive vision and strategy for a decade of transformative science at the frontiers of biological and physical sciences research in space. This report will help NASA define and align biological and physical sciences research to uniquely advance scientific knowledge, meet human and robotic exploration mission needs, and provide terrestrial benefits.

Across multiple domains of science, engineering, and medicine, excitement is growing about the potential of digital twins to transform scientific research, industrial practices, and many aspects of daily life. A digital twin couples computational models with a physical counterpart to create a system that is dynamically updated through bidirectional data flows as conditions change. Going beyond traditional simulation and modeling, digital twins could enable improved medical decision-making at the individual patient level, predictions of future weather and climate conditions over longer timescales, and safer, more efficient engineering processes. However, many challenges remain before these applications can be realized.This report identifies the foundational research and resources needed to support the development of digital twin technologies. The report presents critical future research priorities and an interdisciplinary research agenda for the field, including how federal agencies and researchers across domains can best collaborate.

Earth is a complex system, with myriad interactions and feedbacks among the atmosphere, hydrosphere, geosphere, cryosphere, and biosphere, as well as the people, institutions, and technologies that respond to and influence these dynamics. A systems-based approach to scientific research can yield understanding across all aspects of Earth's interconnected processes. Earth systems studies rest on careful analyses of physical, chemical, biological, and behavioral processes and their interactions and feedbacks; these studies are supported by observational platforms, laboratory and modeling facilities, a skilled scientific workforce, and the cyberinfrastructure that connects them to enable new breakthroughs.This workshop was organized to explore the approaches to Earth systems science through the lens of a critical topic - tipping points - and to cultivate cross-disciplinary collaborations and prime new research communities to discuss examples of research needs in a broader context of Earth systems science. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

Research supported by scientific ocean drilling has fundamentally transformed our understanding of the planet with key contributions to the discovery and theory of plate tectonics; the formation and destruction of ocean crust; the reconstruction of extreme greenhouse and icehouse climates; the identification of major extinctions; and the discovery of a diverse community of microbes living deep ocean seafloor. With the retirement in 2024 of the JOIDES Resolution-- the U.S. dedicated drilling vessel for deep sea research and the workhorse for the international scientific ocean drilling community-- the scientific ocean drilling landscape will change. At this critical juncture, the National Science Foundation (NSF) is looking to identify the most urgent research questions that can only be answered with scientific ocean drilling and what infrastructure is needed to progress those priorities.This interim report that is the first part of a broader study of decadal survey of ocean science provides a broad perspective of future research and associated infrastructure needs. The report concludes that the rapid pace of climate change, related extreme events, sea level rise, changes in ocean currents, chemistry threatening ocean ecosystems, and devastating natural hazards are among the greatest challenges facing society. By coring the past to inform the future, U.S. based scientific ocean drilling research continues to have unique and essential roles in addressing these vital and urgent challenges.

Understanding and anticipating change in the ocean, and how it will affect marine ecosystems and humans, has never been more urgent. Over recent years, basic and applied research in ocean science has developed more accurate forecasts of ocean and seafloor processes that have helped communities adapt to changing conditions. However, at the start of this new decade (2025-2035), U.S. investment in ocean science, engineering, and technology is not keeping pace with growing societal needs, even as U.S. competitors are increasing investments in ocean science and advancing their capacities.At the request of the National Science Foundation (NSF), this report provides advice on how to focus investments in ocean research, infrastructure, and workforce to meet national and global challenges in the coming decade and beyond, and in doing so, enhance national security, scientific leadership, and economic competitiveness through a thriving blue economy. The report also sets out an overarching challenge for NSF and the broader research community: to establish a new paradigm for forecasting the state of the ocean at scales relevant to human well-being in the next decade. Accomplishing this challenge is reliant on continued funding for basic research across ocean studies and reinvestment in ocean science infrastructure. It will require an integrated approach to research that takes full advantage of emerging technologies, expands the workforce, and increases available resources through strategic partnerships among federal and state agencies, industry, academia, and other interest holders.

Groundbreaking advances in solar and space physics have provided key insights into the dynamic physical processes on the Sun and its influence on Earth, the near-Earth space environment, other planets in our solar system, and beyond. As we look to the next decade, future discoveries in the field will expand our knowledge of the cosmos and better prepare us for the impact of space weather events on critical systems and humanity. The Next Decade of Discovery in Solar and Space Physics: Exploring and Safeguarding Humanity's Home in Space, a National Academies' decadal survey, presents a prioritized strategy for basic and applied research to advance scientific understanding of the heliosphere and the origins of space weather, the Sun's interactions with other bodies in the solar system, and the interplanetary and interstellar mediums.

As scientific problems grow more complex and interdisciplinary, the need for effective, collaborative, and context-sensitive research teams has never been greater. The Science and Practice of Team Science presents an updated, evidence-based roadmap for supporting science teams across a wide variety of domains, disciplines, and organizational structures.This new report from the National Academies builds on a decade of learning since the landmark Enhancing the Effectiveness of Team Science report. It examines how evolving forces - including digital innovation, global disruptions, and the rise of virtual collaboration - are reshaping the way scientific teams form, function, and deliver results. From small interdisciplinary groups to large-scale, distributed multiteam systems, today's science teams require flexible strategies tailored to their goals, environments, and challenges.The Science and Practice of Team Science outlines adaptable practices that enhance team dynamics and productivity across all phases of research - from development to implementation to translation. These include the use of team charters, psychological safety, communication strategies, and project management. This report also emphasizes the role of technology in enabling collaboration while cautioning that tools must be intentionally deployed to support accessibility, training, and integration with workflows.

The scientific community has been studying the question of how human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases are affecting the climate for well over a century. Much is known today, drawing on decades of direct observations of the Earth system and detailed research. This report summarizes the latest evidence on whether greenhouse gas emissions threaten public health and welfare in the United States.The impetus for this report was a notice of proposed rulemaking issued in August 2025 by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) indicating its intention to rescind the 2009 Finding of Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act. Recognizing that significantly more evidence is available today, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine launched this study to review newly available scientific evidence on the topics included in a Technical Support Document that EPA prepared to inform its decision-making on the finding.The report's authoring committee found that EPA's 2009 finding that human-caused emissions of greenhouse gases adversely affect human health and welfare was accurate, has stood the test of time, and is now reinforced by even stronger evidence. Today, many of EPA's conclusions are further supported by longer observational records and multiple new lines of evidence. Moreover, research has uncovered additional risks that were not apparent in 2009.

The ocean is central to the health of the planet and the well-being of human societies, but ongoing depletion, disruption, and pollution threaten its future. The United Nations proclaimed 2021-2030 the Decade of Ocean Science for Sustainable Development (UN Ocean Decade) in recognition of the need to sustainably manage the Ocean. U.S. participation in the Decade, guided by the U.S. National Committee, included a call for "Ocean-Shots" - ambitious, transformational research concepts that draw from multiple disciplines. More than 100 Ocean-Shots were submitted.Conducted at the request of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy and sponsored by NASA, this report identifies exciting themes from the Ocean-Shots that will galvanize action and inspire transformative, cross-disciplinary, and multi-generational participation in the Decade. Two foundational themes undergird how to go about science: An Inclusive and Equitable Ocean calls for the involvement of a diverse and representative ocean community, and An Ocean of Data recognizes the shift toward open access for data that is collected. Four topical themes - The Ocean Revealed, The Restored and Sustainable Ocean, Ocean Solutions for Climate Resilience, and Healthy Urban Sea - represent promising areas for research investments that are consistent both with the UN Ocean Decade Outcomes and U.S. ocean priorities.

In thousands of communities across the United States, drinking water is contaminated with chemicals known as perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). PFAS are used in a wide range of products, such as non-stick cookware, water and stain repellent fabrics, and fire-fighting foam, because they have properties that repel oil and water, reduce friction, and resist temperature changes. PFAS can leak into the environment where they are made, used, disposed of, or spilled. PFAS exposure has been linked to a number of adverse health effects including certain cancers, thyroid dysfunction, changes in cholesterol, and small reductions in birth weight.This report recommends that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) update its clinical guidance to advise clinicians to offer PFAS blood testing to patients who are likely to have a history of elevated exposure, such as those with occupational exposures or those who live in areas known to be contaminated. If testing reveals PFAS levels associated with an increased risk of adverse effects, patients should receive regular screenings and monitoring for these and other health impacts. Guidance on PFAS Exposure, Testing, and Clinical Follow-Up recommends that the CDC, Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR), and public health departments support clinicians by creating educational materials on PFAS exposure, potential health effects, the limitations of testing, and the benefits and harms of testing.

Individuals from minoritized racial and ethnic groups continue to face systemic barriers that impede their ability to access, persist, and thrive in science, technology, engineering, mathematics, and medicine (STEMM) higher education and workforce. Without actively dismantling policies and practices that disadvantage people from minoritized groups, STEMM organizations stand to lose much needed talent and innovation as well as the ideas that come from having a diverse workforce.A new report from the Board on Behavioral, Cognitive, and Sensory Sciences examines the backdrop of systemic racism in the United States that has harmed and continues to harm people from minoritized groups, which is critical for understanding the unequal representation in STEMM. The report outlines actions that top leaders and gatekeepers in STEMM organizations, such as presidents and chief executive officers, can take to foster a culture and climate of antiracism, diversity, equity, and inclusion that is genuinely accessible and supportive to all.

For more than 75 years, high-hazard structures in the U.S., including dams and nuclear power plants, have been engineered to withstand floods resulting from the most unlikely but possible precipitation, termed Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP). Failure of any one of the more than 16,000 high-hazard dams and 50 nuclear power plants in the United States could result in the loss of life and impose significant economic losses and widespread environmental damage, especially under the pressures of climate change. While PMP estimates have provided useful guidance for designing critical infrastructure, weaknesses in the scientific foundations of PMP, combined with advances in understanding, observing, and modeling extreme storms, call for fundamental changes to the definition of PMP and the methods used to estimate it.Modernizing Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation recommends a new definition of PMP and presents a vision for a methodology relevant for design, operation, and regulation of critical infrastructure. The new definition targets precipitation depths with an extremely low exceedance probability instead of assuming rainfall is bounded, and considers specified climate periods so that PMP estimates can change as the climate changes. Near-term enhancements to PMP include improved data collection, model-based storm reconstructions, and strengthened scientific grounding for PMP methods. Long-term model-based PMP estimation will employ kilometer-scale climate models capable of resolving PMP storms and producing PMP-magnitude precipitation. A Model Evaluation Project will provide scientific grounding for model-based PMP estimation and determine when transition to a model-based PMP estimation should occur. Scientific and modeling advances along this front will contribute to addressing the societal challenges linked to the changes in extreme storms and precipitation in a warming climate, which are critical steps to ensuring the safety of our infrastructure and society.

In response to the buildup of U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals during the Cold War, a series of major scientific studies conducted in the 1980s issued warnings about the potential for a "nuclear winter" scenario - the possibility that a large-scale nuclear exchange could inject massive amounts of soot and particulates into the upper atmosphere that would block incoming solar radiation and cause major ecosystem and societal disruptions. In the decades since that concept emerged, profound military, political, and technological changes have reshaped the nuclear landscape, while scientific advances have deepened the understanding of, and ability to model, Earth system processes. It is in this context that the U.S. Congress asked for this report to re-examine the potential environmental, social, and economic effects that could unfold over the weeks to decades after a nuclear war.The effects of any given nuclear exchange would depend on key processes and interactions along a causal pathway with six stages: weapon employment scenarios and effects; fire dynamics and emissions; plume rise, fate, and transport; physical Earth system impacts; ecosystem impacts; and socioeconomic impacts. Impacts of radioactive fallout were not included in the assessment. Potential Environmental Effects of Nuclear War identifies major uncertainties and data gaps at each stage of the causal pathway that currently limit researchers' ability to understand and model the effects of a nuclear war. This report recommends that relevant U.S. agencies coordinate the development of and support for a suite of model intercomparison projects to organize and assess models to reduce uncertainties in projections of the climatic and environment effects of nuclear war.

Atypical weather events, such as extreme tropical cyclones, pose substantial threats to life, property and livelihoods in the U.S. and worldwide. Despite major advances in forecasting capabilities, communicating about extreme weather events with decision-makers and the public carries considerable challenges but also provides opportunities for innovation. Decisions surrounding extreme weather events often involve making tradeoffs between different degrees and varieties of risks. For example, deciding whether or when to issue an evacuation order ahead of a tropical cyclone entails tradeoffs between the risks to lives posed by the event and the risks to livelihoods posed by the financial costs of evacuations or relocations.In early 2024, the National Academies held a workshop on risk communication around extreme tropical cyclones and other atypical climate events. Participants aimed to identify opportunities and challenges for risk communication as well as lessons about community engagement and communication concerning other climate events. Over the course of the workshop, participants addressed various facets of risk communication, including the importance and difficulty of clearly communicating uncertainty to the general public; the importance of understanding the needs of various audiences in the context of effective communication; preparedness as a critical component of an effective response; and the often-profound ways that strong partnerships and relationships across sectors and offices can impact and improve risk communication.