Geopolitics in the 21st Century – serie

Shifting power balances in the world are shaking the foundations of the liberal international order and revealing new fault lines at the intersection of human rights and international security. Will these new global trends help or hinder the world's long struggle for human rights and democracy? The answer depends on the role of five rising democracies—India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesia—as both examples and supporters of liberal ideas and practices.Ted Piccone analyzes the transitions of these five democracies as their stars rise on the international stage. While they offer important and mainly positive examples of the compatibility of political liberties, economic growth, and human development, their foreign policies swing between interest-based strategic autonomy and a principled concern for democratic progress and human rights. In a multipolar world, the fate of the liberal international order depends on how they reconcile these tendencies.

Shifting power balances in the world are shaking the foundations of the liberal international order and revealing new fault lines at the intersection of human rights and international security. Will these new global trends help or hinder the world's long struggle for human rights and democracy? The answer depends on the role of five rising democracies—India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, and Indonesia—as both examples and supporters of liberal ideas and practices.Ted Piccone analyzes the transitions of these five democracies as their stars rise on the international stage. While they offer important and mainly positive examples of the compatibility of political liberties, economic growth, and human development, their foreign policies swing between interest-based strategic autonomy and a principled concern for democratic progress and human rights. In a multipolar world, the fate of the liberal international order depends on how they reconcile these tendencies.

Fiona Hill and other U.S. public servants have been recognized as Guardians of the Year in TIME's 2019 Person of the Year issue.From the KGB to the Kremlin: a multidimensional portrait of the man at war with the West.Where do Vladimir Putin's ideas come from? How does he look at the outside world? What does he want, and how far is he willing to go?The great lesson of the outbreak of World War I in 1914 was the danger of misreading the statements, actions, and intentions of the adversary. Today, Vladimir Putin has become the greatest challenge to European security and the global world order in decades. Russia's 8,000 nuclear weapons underscore the huge risks of not understanding who Putin is.Featuring five new chapters, this new edition dispels potentially dangerous misconceptions about Putin and offers a clear-eyed look at his objectives. It presents Putin as a reflection of deeply ingrained Russian ways of thinking as well as his unique personal background and experience.Praise for the first edition:“If you want to begin to understand Russia today, read this book.”—Sir John Scarlett, former chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6)“For anyone wishing to understand Russia's evolution since the breakup of the Soviet Union and its trajectory since then, the book you hold in your hand is an essential guide.”—John McLaughlin, former deputy director of U.S. Central Intelligence“Of the many biographies of Vladimir Putin that have appeared in recent years, this one is the most useful.”—Foreign Affairs“This is not just another Putin biography. It is a psychological portrait.”—The Financial TimesQ: Do you have time to read books? If so, which ones would you recommend? “My goodness, let's see. There's Mr. Putin, by Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy. Insightful.”—Vice President Joseph Biden in Joe Biden: The Rolling Stone Interview.

Fiona Hill and other U.S. public servants have been recognized as Guardians of the Year in TIME''s 2019 Person of the Year issue.From the KGB to the Kremlin: a multidimensional portrait of the man at war with the West.Where do Vladimir Putin's ideas come from? How does he look at the outside world? What does he want, and how far is he willing to go?The great lesson of the outbreak of World War I in 1914 was the danger of misreading the statements, actions, and intentions of the adversary. Today, Vladimir Putin has become the greatest challenge to European security and the global world order in decades. Russia's 8,000 nuclear weapons underscore the huge risks of not understanding who Putin is.Featuring five new chapters, this new edition dispels potentially dangerous misconceptions about Putin and offers a clear-eyed look at his objectives. It presents Putin as a reflection of deeply ingrained Russian ways of thinking as well as his unique personal background and experience.Praise for the first edition:“If you want to begin to understand Russia today, read this book.”—Sir John Scarlett, former chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6)“For anyone wishing to understand Russia's evolution since the breakup of the Soviet Union and its trajectory since then, the book you hold in your hand is an essential guide.”—John McLaughlin, former deputy director of U.S. Central Intelligence“Of the many biographies of Vladimir Putin that have appeared in recent years, this one is the most useful.”—Foreign Affairs“This is not just another Putin biography. It is a psychological portrait.”—The Financial TimesQ: Do you have time to read books? If so, which ones would you recommend? “My goodness, let's see. There's Mr. Putin, by Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy. Insightful.”—Vice President Joseph Biden in Joe Biden: The Rolling Stone Interview.

Fiona Hill and other U.S. public servants have been recognized as Guardians of the Year in TIME's 2019 Person of the Year issue.From the KGB to the Kremlin: a multidimensional portrait of the man at war with the West.Where do Vladimir Putin's ideas come from? How does he look at the outside world? What does he want, and how far is he willing to go?The great lesson of the outbreak of World War I in 1914 was the danger of misreading the statements, actions, and intentions of the adversary. Today, Vladimir Putin has become the greatest challenge to European security and the global world order in decades. Russia's 8,000 nuclear weapons underscore the huge risks of not understanding who Putin is.Featuring five new chapters, this new edition dispels potentially dangerous misconceptions about Putin and offers a clear-eyed look at his objectives. It presents Putin as a reflection of deeply ingrained Russian ways of thinking as well as his unique personal background and experience.Praise for the first edition:“If you want to begin to understand Russia today, read this book.”—Sir John Scarlett, former chief of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6)“For anyone wishing to understand Russia's evolution since the breakup of the Soviet Union and its trajectory since then, the book you hold in your hand is an essential guide.”—John McLaughlin, former deputy director of U.S. Central Intelligence“Of the many biographies of Vladimir Putin that have appeared in recent years, this one is the most useful.”—Foreign Affairs“This is not just another Putin biography. It is a psychological portrait.”—The Financial TimesQ: Do you have time to read books? If so, which ones would you recommend? “My goodness, let's see. There's Mr. Putin, by Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy. Insightful.”—Vice President Joseph Biden in Joe Biden: The Rolling Stone Interview.

Chinese politics are at a crossroads as President Xi Jinping amasses personal power and tests the constraints of collective leadership.In the years since he became general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, Xi Jinping has surprised many people in China and around the world with his bold anti-corruption campaign and his aggressive consolidation of power.Given these new developments, we must rethink how we analyze Chinese politics—an urgent task as China now has more influence on the global economy and regional security than at any other time in modern history.Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era examines how the structure and dynamics of party leadership have evolved since the late 1990s and argues that ""inner-party democracy""—the concept of collective leadership that emphasizes deal making based on accepted rules and norms—may pave the way for greater transformation within China's political system. Xi's legacy will largely depend on whether he encourages or obstructs this trend of political institutionalization in the governance of the world's most populous and increasingly pluralistic country.Cheng Li also addresses the recruitment and composition of the political elite, a central concern in Chinese politics. China analysts will benefit from the meticulously detailed biographical information of the 376 members of the 18th Central Committee, including tables and charts detailing their family background, education, occupation, career patterns, and mentor-patron ties.

Chinese politics are at a crossroads as President Xi Jinping amasses personal power and tests the constraints of collective leadership.In the years since he became general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012, Xi Jinping has surprised many people in China and around the world with his bold anti-corruption campaign and his aggressive consolidation of power.Given these new developments, we must rethink how we analyze Chinese politics—an urgent task as China now has more influence on the global economy and regional security than at any other time in modern history.Chinese Politics in the Xi Jinping Era examines how the structure and dynamics of party leadership have evolved since the late 1990s and argues that ""inner-party democracy""—the concept of collective leadership that emphasizes deal making based on accepted rules and norms—may pave the way for greater transformation within China's political system. Xi's legacy will largely depend on whether he encourages or obstructs this trend of political institutionalization in the governance of the world's most populous and increasingly pluralistic country.Cheng Li also addresses the recruitment and composition of the political elite, a central concern in Chinese politics. China analysts will benefit from the meticulously detailed biographical information of the 376 members of the 18th Central Committee, including tables and charts detailing their family background, education, occupation, career patterns, and mentor-patron ties.

What happens if we bet too heavily on unmanned systems, cyber warfare, and special operations in our defense?In today's U.S. defense policy debates, big land wars are out. Drones, cyber weapons, special forces, and space weapons are in. Accordingly, Pentagon budget cuts have honed in on the army and ground forces: this, after the long wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, seems like an appealing idea. No one really wants American boots on the ground in bloody conflicts abroad. But it is not so easy to simply declare an end to messy land wars. A survey of the world's trouble spots suggests that land warfare has more of a future than many now seem to believe.In The Future of Land Warfare, Michael O'Hanlon offers an analysis of the future of the world's ground forces: Where are large-scale conflicts or other catastrophes most plausible? Which of these could be important enough to require the option of a U.S. military response? And which of these could in turn demand significant numbers of American ground forces in their resolution? O'Hanlon is not predicting or advocating big American roles in such operations—only cautioning against overconfidence that we can and will avoid them.O'Hanlon considers a number of illustrative scenarios in which large conventional forces may be necessary: discouraging Russia from even contemplating attacks against the Baltic states; discouraging China from considering an unfriendly future role on the Korean peninsula; handling an asymmetric threat in the South China Sea with the construction and protection of a number of bases in the Philippines and elsewhere; managing the aftermath of a major and complex humanitarian disaster superimposed on a security crisis—perhaps in South Asia; coping with a severe Ebola outbreak not in the small states of West Africa but in Nigeria, at the same time that country falls further into violence; addressing a further meltdown in security conditions in Central America.

As the largest country in South America by land mass and population, Brazil has been marked since its’ independence by a belief that it has a potential to be more than merely a very large country. Set apart from the rest of the hemisphere by culture, language and history, Brazil has also been viewed by its neighbors as a potential great power, and at times, a threat. But even though domestic aspirations and foreign perceptions have held out the prospect for Brazil becoming a major power, the country has lacked the capabilities – particularly on the military and economic dimensions – to pursue a traditional path to greatness.Aspirational Power examines Brazil as a rising power. It explains Brazil’s predilection for soft power through a historical analysis of Brazil’s three previous attempts to achieve major power status, each of which shaped its present strategy. Though Brazil’s efforts to rise have fallen short it will continue to try to overcome the obstacles to its rise, whether those obstacles are domestic or international.

For years China’s international investment interests focused on a search for natural resources in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Recently, China’s focus has shifted to Europe in fields as diverse as real estate, energy, hospitality, transportation, and heavy industry. Chinese foreign investment is expected to grow throughout Europe in years to come. The financial crisis and fall of the euro are helping Chinese companies create a new partnership within the European Union, working to expand China’s power through finance and infrastructure.China’s Offensive in Europe studies the trends, sectors, and target countries of Chinese investments in Europe. It also takes a look at European perceptions’ of China – a country with very different history and traditions from the Western world.Philippe Le Corre and Alain Sepulchre examine how Europe’s China presence can serve as a benchmark to other developed economies – especially the United States, which is also seeing a rise in Chinese investments.

For years China’s international investment interests focused on a search for natural resources in Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Recently, China’s focus has shifted to Europe in fields as diverse as real estate, energy, hospitality, transportation, and heavy industry. Chinese foreign investment is expected to grow throughout Europe in years to come. The financial crisis and fall of the euro are helping Chinese companies create a new partnership within the European Union, working to expand China’s power through finance and infrastructure.China’s Offensive in Europe studies the trends, sectors, and target countries of Chinese investments in Europe. It also takes a look at European perceptions’ of China – a country with very different history and traditions from the Western world.Philippe Le Corre and Alain Sepulchre examine how Europe’s China presence can serve as a benchmark to other developed economies – especially the United States, which is also seeing a rise in Chinese investments.

In recent decades, India has grown as a global power, and has been able to pursue its own goals in its own way. Negotiating for India's Global Role gives an insightful and integrated analysis of India’s ability to manage its evolving role. Former ambassadors Teresita and Howard Schaffer shine a light on the country’s strategic vision, foreign policy, and the negotiating behavior that links the two. The four concepts woven throughout the book offer an exploration of India today: its exceptionalism; nonalignment and the drive for “strategic autonomy;” determination to maintain regional primacy; and, more recently, its surging economy. With a specific focus on India’s stellar negotiating practice, Negotiating for India's Global Role is a unique, comprehensive understanding of India as an emerging international power player, and the choices it will face between its classic view of strategic autonomy and the desirability of finding partners in the fast-evolving world.

In recent decades, India has grown as a global power, and has been able to pursue its own goals in its own way. Negotiating for India's Global Role gives an insightful and integrated analysis of India’s ability to manage its evolving role. Former ambassadors Teresita and Howard Schaffer shine a light on the country’s strategic vision, foreign policy, and the negotiating behavior that links the two. The four concepts woven throughout the book offer an exploration of India today: its exceptionalism; nonalignment and the drive for “strategic autonomy;” determination to maintain regional primacy; and, more recently, its surging economy. With a specific focus on India’s stellar negotiating practice, Negotiating for India's Global Role is a unique, comprehensive understanding of India as an emerging international power player, and the choices it will face between its classic view of strategic autonomy and the desirability of finding partners in the fast-evolving world.

A look behind the scenes of some of India’s most critical foreign policy decisions by the country’s former foreign secretary and national security adviser.Every country must make choices about foreign policy and national security. Sometimes those choices turn out to have been correct, other times not. In this insider's account, Shivshankar Menon describes some of the most crucial decisions India has faced during his long career in government—and how key personalities often had to make choices based on incomplete information under the pressure of fast-moving events.Menon either participated directly in or was associated with all the major Indian foreign policy decisions he describes in Choices. These include the 2005–08 U.S.–India nuclear agreement; the first-ever boundary-related agreement between India and China; India's decision not to use overt force against Pakistan in response to the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai; the 2009 defeat of the Tamil rebellion in Sri Lanka; and India's disavowal of the first-use of nuclear weapons. Menon examines what these choices reveal about India's strategic culture and decisionmaking, its policies toward the use of force, its long-term goals and priorities, and its future behavior.Choices will be of interest to anyone searching for answers to questions about how one of the world's great, rising powers makes its decisions on the world stage, and the difficult choices that sometimes had to be made.

The paradox of U.S. involvement in Southeast AsiaThe Obama administration''s pivot-to-Asia policy establishes an important place for Southeast Asia in U.S. foreign policy. But Washington''s attention to the region has fluctuated dramatically, from the intense intervention of the cold war era to near neglect in more recent years. As a consequence, countries in Southeast Asia worry that the United States once again will become distracted by other problems and disengage from the region.This book written by an astute observer of the region and U.S. policy casts light on the sources of these anxieties. A main consideration is that it still is not clear how Southeast Asia fits into U.S. strategy for Asia and the broader world. Is the region central to U.S. policymaking, or an afterthought?Ambivalent Engagement highlights a dilemma that is becoming increasingly conspicuous and problematic. Southeast Asia continues to rely on the United States to play an active role in the region even though it is an external power. But the countries of Southeast Asia have very different views about precisely what role the United States should play. The consequences of this ambivalence will grow in importance with the expanding role of yet another outside power, China.

Turkey: A necessary ally in a troubled regionWith the new administration in office, it is not clear whether the U.S. will continue to lead and sustain a global liberal order that was already confronted by daunting challenges. These range from a fragile European Union rocked by the United Kingdom''s exit and rising populism to a cold war-like rivalry with Russia and instability in the Middle East. A long-standing member of NATO, Turkey stands as a front-line state in the midst of many of these challenges. Yet, Turkey is failing to play a more constructive role in supporting this order--beyond caring for nearly 3 million refugees, mostly coming from the fighting in Syria--and its current leadership is in frequent disagreement with its Western allies. This tension has been compounded by a failed Turkish foreign policy that aspired to establish its own alternative regional order in the Middle East. As a result, many in the West now question whether Turkey functions as a dependable ally for the United States and other NATO members.Kemal Kirisci''s new book argues that, despite these problems, the domestic and regional realities are now edging Turkey toward improving its relations with the West. A better understanding of these developments will be critical in devising a new and realistic U.S. strategy toward a transformed Turkey and its neighborhood.Western policymakers must keep in mind three on-the-ground realities that might help improve the relationship with Turkey. First, Turkey remains deeply integrated within the transatlantic community, a fact that once imbued it with prestige in its neighborhood. It is this prestige that the recent trajectory of Turkish domestic politics and foreign policy has squandered; for it to be regained, Turkey needs to rebuild cooperation with the West. The second reality is that chaos in the neighborhood has resulted in the loss of lucrative markets for Turkish exports-which, in return, increases the value to Turkey of Western markets. Third, Turkish national security is threatened by developments in Syria and an increasingly assertive Russia, enhancing the strategic value of Turkey''s “troubled alliance” with the West. The big question, however, is whether rising authoritarianism in Turkey and the government''s anti-Western rhetoric will cease and Turkey''s democracy restored before the current fault lines can be overcome and constructive re-engagement between the two sides can occur.In light of these realities, this book discusses the challenges and opportunities for the new U.S. administration as well as the EU of re-engaging with a sometimes-troublesome, yet long-time ally.

Conventional political theory holds that the sovereign state is the legitimate source of order and provider of public services in any society, whether democratic or not. But Hezbollah and ISIS in the Middle East, pirate clans in Africa, criminal gangs in South America, and militias in Southeast Asia are examples of nonstate actors that control local territory and render public services that the nation-state cannot or will not provide.This fascinating book takes the reader around the world to areas where national governance has broken down-or never really existed. In these places, the vacuum has been filled by local gangs, militias, and warlords, some with ideological or political agendas and others focused primarily on economic gain. Many of these actors have substantial popularity and support among local populations and have developed their own enduring institutions, often undermining the legitimacy of the national state.The authors show that the rest of the world has more than a passing interest in these situations, in part because transborder crime and terrorism often emerge but also because failed states threaten international interests from trade to security. This book also poses, and offers answers for, the question: How should the international community respond to local orders dominated by armed nonstate actors? In many cases outsiders have taken the short-term route-accepting unsavory local actors out of expediency-but at the price of long-term instability or damage to human rights and other considerations.From Africa and the Middle East to Asia and Latin America, the local situations highlighted in this book are, and will remain, high on today''s international agenda. The book makes a unique contribution to global understanding of how those situations developed and what can be done about them.This title is part of the Geopolitics in the 21st Century series.

Partisan warfare and gridlock in Washington threaten to squander America’s opportunity to show the world that democracy can solve serious economic problems and ensure widely shared prosperity. Instead of working together to meet the challenges ahead—an aging work force, exploding inequality, climate change, rising debt—our elected leaders are sabotaging our economic future by blaming and demonizing each other in hopes of winning big in the next election. They are weakening America’s capacity for world leadership and the case for democracy here and abroad.Alice M. Rivlin, with decades of experience in economic policy making, argues that proven economic policies could lead to sustainable American prosperity and opportunity for all, but crafting them requires the tough, time-consuming work of consensus building and bipartisan negotiation. In a divided country with shifting majorities, major policies must have bipartisan buy-in and broad public support. Otherwise we will have either destabilizing swings in policy or total gridlock in the face of challenges looming at us.Rivlin believes that Americans can and must save our hyper-partisan politicians from themselves. She makes the case that on many practical economic issues the public is far less divided than partisan politicians and sensationalist media would have us believe. She draws attention to numerous hopeful efforts to bridge partisan and ideological divides in Washington, in state capitols and city governments, and communities around the country, and advocates a major national effort to enable citizens and future leaders to learn and practice the art of listening to each other and working together to find common ground.This book is a practical guide for Americans across the political spectrum who are agonizing over partisan warfare, incivility, and policy gridlock and looking for ways they can help to get our democratic policy process back on a constructive track before it is too late.

An insider's account of the often-fraught U.S.-Saudi relationshipSaudi Arabia and the United States have been partners since 1943, when President Roosevelt met with two future Saudi monarchs. Subsequent U.S. presidents have had direct relationships with those kings and their successors—setting the tone for a special partnership between an absolute monarchy with a unique Islamic identity and the world's most powerful democracy.Although based in large part on economic interests, the U.S.-Saudi relationship has rarely been smooth. Differences over Israel have caused friction since the early days, and ambiguities about Saudi involvement—or lack of it—in the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States continue to haunt the relationship. Now, both countries have new, still-to be-tested leaders in President Trump and King Salman.Bruce Riedel for decades has followed these kings and presidents during his career at the CIA, the White House, and Brookings. This book offers an insider's account of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, with unique insights. Using declassified documents, memoirs by both Saudis and Americans, and eyewitness accounts, this book takes the reader inside the royal palaces, the holy cities, and the White House to gain an understanding of this complex partnership.

An insider''s account of the often-fraught U.S.-Saudi relationshipSaudi Arabia and the United States have been partners since 1943, when President Roosevelt met with two future Saudi monarchs. Subsequent U.S. presidents have had direct relationships with those kings and their successors-setting the tone for a special partnership between an absolute monarchy with a unique Islamic identity and the world''s most powerful democracy.Although based in large part on economic interests, the U.S.-Saudi relationship has rarely been smooth. Differences over Israel have caused friction since the early days, and ambiguities about Saudi involvement-or lack of it-in the September 11 terrorist attacks against the United States continue to haunt the relationship. Now, both countries have new, still-to be-tested leaders in President Trump and King Salman.Bruce Riedel for decades has followed these kings and presidents during his career at the CIA, the White House, and Brookings. This book offers an insider''s account of the U.S.-Saudi relationship, with unique insights. Using declassified documents, memoirs by both Saudis and Americans, and eyewitness accounts, this book takes the reader inside the royal palaces, the holy cities, and the White House to gain an understanding of this complex partnership.

The paradox of U.S. involvement in Southeast AsiaThe Obama administration's pivot-to-Asia policy establishes an important place for Southeast Asia in U.S. foreign policy. But Washington's attention to the region has fluctuated dramatically, from the intense intervention of the cold war era to near neglect in more recent years. As a consequence, countries in Southeast Asia worry that the United States once again will become distracted by other problems and disengage from the region.This book written by an astute observer of the region and U.S. policy casts light on the sources of these anxieties. A main consideration is that it still is not clear how Southeast Asia fits into U.S. strategy for Asia and the broader world. Is the region central to U.S. policymaking, or an afterthought?Ambivalent Engagement highlights a dilemma that is becoming increasingly conspicuous and problematic. Southeast Asia continues to rely on the United States to play an active role in the region even though it is an external power. But the countries of Southeast Asia have very different views about precisely what role the United States should play. The consequences of this ambivalence will grow in importance with the expanding role of yet another outside power, China.

How to restore ethics, the rule of law, and democracy as the centerpieces of U.S. governmentU.S. government has been repeatedly renewed—sometimes simply repaired and other times reinvented—during its over 230 years. Major aspects of the federal system were broken again during the four years of the Trump administration, so it’s time for even more fixes. This book sets out the damage that was done and important ideas on how the repairs should be made, focusing on ethics, the rule of law, and democracy.Distinguished scholars and practitioners have come together not only to address what went awry over the past four years, but also the deeper weaknesses that have become more evident, and how those weaknesses can be repaired. The problem areas range from ethics and conflicts of interest to the Hatch Act and big money in politics, and from independence at the Department of Justice and government transparency to reestablishing Congressional oversight, and the government’s role in the broader areas of how Americans vote and of international ethics and rule of law.Overcoming Trumpery provides a framework to understand the significant developments that are already happening in Washington with respect to ethics, the rule of law, and democracy. These include the “For the People Act,” the “Protecting Our Democracy Act,” and President Biden’s Executive Order on Ethics.The ideas outlined in this book for fixing flaws in federal governance come from the more than century of collective experience of its expert authors. The book represents a burst of sunshine after a very dark period in the nation’s history.