Global Change - The IGBP Series – serie

In global coastal zones, the major fabric of goods and services for human welfare as well as global changes are extraordinarily visible. They are shaped by natural Earth systems processes on a planetary scale, which are reflected in a continuously adapting coastal environment. Now, in the "Anthropocene", human society is a greater catalyst for change - impacting and modifying coastal processes. This book synthesizes knowledge on coastal and riverine material fluxes, biogeochemical processes and indications of change, and the human influence, before looking at future research and management needs. It is a milestone rather than a destination on the journey which continues under the new International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) and the LOICZ II (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) Project.

The interactions between environmental change and human societies have a long, complex history spanning many millennia, but these have changed fundamentally in the last century. Human activities are now so pervasive and profound that they are altering the Earth in ways which threaten the very life support system upon which humans depend. This book describes what is known about the Earth System and the impact of changes caused by humans. It considers the consequences of these changes with respect to the stability of the Earth System and the well-being of humankind; as well as exploring future paths towards Earth System science in support of global sustainability.

The book presents recent estimates of the rates in changes of major land classes such as forest, cropland and pasture. Among the causative mechanisms behind land change, synergetic factor combinations are found to be more common than single key factor explanations. Aggregated globally, multiple impacts of local land changes are shown to significantly affect central aspects of Earth System functioning. Innovative developments and applications in the fields of modeling and scenario construction are presented. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the most pressing implications for the design of appropriate intervention policies, and on new directions and frontiers of research.The edited book synthesizes research achievements by dozens of scientists related to the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). It summarizes relevant findings on global land-use change which arose from value-adding activities of the LUCC project, starting in 1995 and extending until its termination in October 2005. The main intention is to describe how human modification of land cover became a major driving force of Earth System changes over the past 300 years, a period of most rapid transformations, with fundamental implications for current landscape configurations. In writing this book, current knowledge and understanding is reported on the rates, causes/pathways, impacts, future scenarios/models, policy implications and new research directions in the field of land-use/cover change.

Oceans account for 50% of the anthropogenic CO2 released into the atmosphere. During the past 15 years an international programme, the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), has been studying the ocean carbon cycle to quantify and model the biological and physical processes whereby CO2 is pumped from the ocean's surface to the depths of the ocean, where it can remain for hundreds of years. This project is one of the largest multi-disciplinary studies of the oceans ever carried out and this book synthesises the results. It covers all aspects of the topic ranging from air-sea exchange with CO2, the role of physical mixing, the uptake of CO2 by marine algae, the fluxes of carbon and nitrogen through the marine food chain to the subsequent export of carbon to the depths of the ocean. Special emphasis is laid on predicting future climatic change.

A state-of-the-art overview of the influence of terrestrial vegetation and soils within the Earth system. The text deals especially with interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere via the hydrological cycle and their interlinkage with anthropogenic activities. Measurements gathered in integrated field experiments in the Sahel, the Amazon, North America and South-east Asia confirm the importance of these interactions. Observations are complemented by modelling studies, including regional models that simulate flows and transport in river catchments, coupled land-cover and regional climate systems, and Earth-system and global circulation models. Water, nutrient and sediment fluxes in river basins are also discussed and are shown to be highly impacted and regulated by humans through land use, pollution and river engineering. Finally, the book discusses environmental vulnerability and methodologies for assessing the risks associated with regional and global climatic and environmental variability and change.The results reported in this book are based on the research work of many individual scientists and teams around the world associated with the objectives of the IGBP-BAHC and WCRP-GEWEX international research programmes.

Global environmental change occupies a central niche in the pantheon of modern sciences. There is an urgent need to know and understand the way in which global biogeochemical cycles have changed over different time scales in the past and are likely to do so in the future. Equally important, it is necessary to determine the extent to which natural variability and that induce by anthropogenic activities are bringing about change. A number of international co-operative scientific programmes ad­ dress these issues. Chief among them are the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the Inter­ national Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) for global change. This book is one of a series of IGBP syntheses drawing together findings in global environmental change over the past decade or so. One focus of IGBP activities is the System for Analysis, Research and Training (START). Co-sponsored by the WCRP and IHDP, START establishes regional research networks for global change science in developing countries, stimulates and carries out global change research in developing regions of the world, and builds capacity to undertake such research at personal, institutional and regional levels. Several regional global change networks have been established, and much regional research has been accomplished in the last five years or so. In this book, work relating to four of the older START regions, Southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia, will be used as case studies to illustrate regional-global linkages in Earth System Science.

This unique volume summarizes and integrates more than a decade of atmospheric chemistry research, carried out under the auspices of the International Global Atmospheric Chemistry (IGAC) Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). It is part of a series being written by each of the IGBP core projects. During the period under consideration, great progress has been made in the science, computing, modelling and observational techniques; methods have also improved. Suggestions for the highest priority research for the next decade are made. The volume was written by leaders in the field of atmospheric chemistry research, and includes important information regarding impacts on the environment reinforced by solid scientific results.

This book presents a state-of-the-science overview of global change and its consequences for human societies. It highlights four areas of critical importance - food, water resources, air quality and the carbon cycle - from both science and policy perspectives, and points the way towards the new scientific approaches needed to study the Earth System in the future. The book also summarises recent advances in understanding in global change science: the climate system, global biogeochemistry, land-ocean interactions and changing land cover and the Earth System.

This book is a product of the joint JGOFS (Joint Global Ocean Flux Study)/LOICZ (Land–Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) Continental Margins Task Team which was established to facilitate continental margins research in the two projects. It contains signi cant information on the physical, biogeochemical, and ecosystems of continental margins nationally and regionally and provides a very valuable synthesis of this information and the physical, biogeochemical and ecosystem processes which occur on continental margins. The publication of this book is timely as it provides a very strong foundation for the development of the joint IMBER (Integrated Marine Biogeochemistry and Ecosystems Research)/LOICZ Science Plan and Implemen- tion Strategy for biogeochemical and ecosystems research in the continental margins and the impacts of global change on these systems. This initiative will move forward integrated biogeochemical and ecosystems research in the continental margins. We thank all the contributors to this volume and especially Kon-Kee Liu who has dedicated a great deal of time to ensuring a high-quality book is published. IMBER Scienti c Steering Committee Julie Hall LOICZ Scienti c Steering Committee Jozef Pacyna v 1 Preface In general, interfaces between the Earth’s larger material reservoirs (i. e. , the land, atmosphere, ocean, and sediments) are important in the control of the biogeoche- cal dynamics and cycling of the major bio-essential elements, including carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), sulfur (S), and silicon (Si), found in organic matter and the inorganic skeletons, shells, and tests of benthic and marine organisms.

In global coastal zones, the major fabric of goods and services for human welfare as well as global changes are extraordinarily visible. They are shaped by natural Earth systems processes on a planetary scale, which are reflected in a continuously adapting coastal environment. Now, in the "Anthropocene", human society is a greater catalyst for change - impacting and modifying coastal processes. This book synthesizes knowledge on coastal and riverine material fluxes, biogeochemical processes and indications of change, and the human influence, before looking at future research and management needs. It is a milestone rather than a destination on the journey which continues under the new International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP) and the LOICZ II (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone) Project.

The book presents recent estimates of the rates in changes of major land classes such as forest, cropland and pasture. Among the causative mechanisms behind land change, synergetic factor combinations are found to be more common than single key factor explanations. Aggregated globally, multiple impacts of local land changes are shown to significantly affect central aspects of Earth System functioning. Innovative developments and applications in the fields of modeling and scenario construction are presented. Finally, conclusions are drawn about the most pressing implications for the design of appropriate intervention policies, and on new directions and frontiers of research.The edited book synthesizes research achievements by dozens of scientists related to the Land-Use/Cover Change (LUCC) project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the International Human Dimensions Programme on Global Environmental Change (IHDP). It summarizes relevant findings on global land-use change which arose from value-adding activities of the LUCC project, starting in 1995 and extending until its termination in October 2005. The main intention is to describe how human modification of land cover became a major driving force of Earth System changes over the past 300 years, a period of most rapid transformations, with fundamental implications for current landscape configurations. In writing this book, current knowledge and understanding is reported on the rates, causes/pathways, impacts, future scenarios/models, policy implications and new research directions in the field of land-use/cover change.

Over 100 authors present 25 contributions on the impacts of global change on terrestrial ecosystems including:key processes of the earth system such as the CO2 fertilization effect, shifts in disturbances and biome distribution, the saturation of the terrestrial carbon sink, and changes in functional biodiversity,ecosystem services such the production of wheat, pest control, and carbon storage in croplands, and sensitive regions in the world threaten by rapid changes in climate and land use such as high latitudes ecosystems, tropical forest in Southeast Asia, and ecosystems dominated by Monsoon climate.The book also explores new research developments on spatial thresholds and nonlinearities, the key role of urban development in global biogeochemical processes, and the integration of natural and social sciences to address complex problems of the human-environment system.

A state-of-the-art overview of the influence of terrestrial vegetation and soils within the Earth system. The text deals especially with interactions between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere via the hydrological cycle and their interlinkage with anthropogenic activities. Measurements gathered in integrated field experiments in the Sahel, the Amazon, North America and South-east Asia confirm the importance of these interactions. Observations are complemented by modelling studies, including regional models that simulate flows and transport in river catchments, coupled land-cover and regional climate systems, and Earth-system and global circulation models. Water, nutrient and sediment fluxes in river basins are also discussed and are shown to be highly impacted and regulated by humans through land use, pollution and river engineering. Finally, the book discusses environmental vulnerability and methodologies for assessing the risks associated with regional and global climatic and environmental variability and change.The results reported in this book are based on the research work of many individual scientists and teams around the world associated with the objectives of the IGBP-BAHC and WCRP-GEWEX international research programmes.

Praise for Guy P. Brasseur's Atmospheric Chemistry in a Changing World American Meteorological Society "This volume summarizes and integrates more than a decade of atmospheric chemistry research. During the period under consideration, great progress has been made in computing, modeling, and observational techniques, and methods have also improved. Here, suggestions for the highest priority research for the next decade are made, and important information is related regarding impacts on the environment."

This volume is based on plenary presentations from Challenges of a Changing Earth, a Global Change Open Science Conference held in Amsterdam, The Neth- lands, in July 2001. The meeting brought together about 1400 scientists from 105 co- tries around the world to describe, discuss and debate the latest scientific - derstanding of natural and human-driven changes to our planet. It examined the effects of these changes on our societies and our lives, and explored what the future might hold. The presentations drew upon global change science from an exceptionally wide range of disciplines and approaches. Issues of societal importance – the food system, air quality, the carbon cycle, and water resources – were highlighted from both policy and science perspectives. Many of the talks presented the exciting scientific advances of the past decade of international research on global change. Several challenged the scientific community in the future. What are the visionary and creative new approaches needed for studying a complex planetary system in which human activities are in- mately interwoven with natural processes? This volume aims to capture the timeliness and excitement of the science p- sented in Amsterdam. The plenary speakers were given a daunting task: to reproduce their presentations in a way that delivers their scientific messages accurately and in sufficient detail but at the same time reaches a very broad audience well beyond their own disciplines. Furthermore, they were required to do this in just a few pages.

Oceans account for 50% of the anthropogenic CO2 released into the atmosphere. During the past 15 years an international programme, the Joint Global Ocean Flux Study (JGOFS), has been studying the ocean carbon cycle to quantify and model the biological and physical processes whereby CO2 is pumped from the ocean's surface to the depths of the ocean, where it can remain for hundreds of years. This project is one of the largest multi-disciplinary studies of the oceans ever carried out and this book synthesises the results. It covers all aspects of the topic ranging from air-sea exchange with CO2, the role of physical mixing, the uptake of CO2 by marine algae, the fluxes of carbon and nitrogen through the marine food chain to the subsequent export of carbon to the depths of the ocean. Special emphasis is laid on predicting future climatic change.

This book provides a synthesis of the past decade of research into global changes that occurred in the earth system in the past. Focus is achieved by concentrating on those changes in the Earth's past environment that best inform our evaluation of current and future global changes and their consequences for human populations. The book stands as a ten year milestone in the operation of the Past Global Changes (PAGES) Project of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP). It seeks to provide a quantitative understanding of the Earth’s environment in the geologically recent past and to define the envelope of natural environmental variability against which anthropogenic impacts on the Earth System may be assessed. A set of color overhead transparencies based on the figures in the book is available free on the PAGES website (www.pages-igbp.org) for use in teaching and lecturing.

Global environmental change occupies a central niche in the pantheon of modern sciences. There is an urgent need to know and understand the way in which global biogeochemical cycles have changed over different time scales in the past and are likely to do so in the future. Equally important, it is necessary to determine the extent to which natural variability and that induce by anthropogenic activities are bringing about change. A number of international co-operative scientific programmes ad­ dress these issues. Chief among them are the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP), the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the Inter­ national Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) for global change. This book is one of a series of IGBP syntheses drawing together findings in global environmental change over the past decade or so. One focus of IGBP activities is the System for Analysis, Research and Training (START). Co-sponsored by the WCRP and IHDP, START establishes regional research networks for global change science in developing countries, stimulates and carries out global change research in developing regions of the world, and builds capacity to undertake such research at personal, institutional and regional levels. Several regional global change networks have been established, and much regional research has been accomplished in the last five years or so. In this book, work relating to four of the older START regions, Southern Africa, South Asia, Southeast Asia and East Asia, will be used as case studies to illustrate regional-global linkages in Earth System Science.