Washington Papers – serie

Miller has written extensively on the Middle East and has been an analyst with the Department of State. He is well-acquainted with the so-called `Palestine Question.' The focus of the present study is upon the Palestinian cause and its less than full cooperative relationship with Jordan, Syria, and Egypt. . . . This volume is an excellent complement to Arthur Day's East Bank/West Bank and is useful to the serious student of Middle East politics. Choice

This work by Janusz Bugajski should be considered mandatory reading for any student of Eastern Europe. The anatomy of the dissident movement of Czechoslovakia--its scope activities, affiliations at home and abroad--has been well documented and presented in a lucid manner. The author has also accumulated an impressive amount of facts, dates and documents. Failures and successes of Charter 77, as well as its future prospects, are described in a very balanced manner. It is an important study by a well-informed and self disciplined researcher and expert on Eastern Europe. It will be a great assistance to those interested in recent developments within the Soviet orbit. Jan Novak, Consultant on Eastern Europe

Two decades of steady progress have transformed ASEAN into a permanent component of world politics and a model for Third World cooperation. Its study should now be mandatory. The Palmer-Reckford volume provides an excellent introduction to ASEAN member states and the organization itself. It reviews problems and promises meticulously and comprehensively and should become required reading. Hans H. Indorf, President, Asian Affairs AnalystsIn this comprehensive new volume, the authors trace the history of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) from its formation in 1967 to the present day. They discuss political, economics, and security issues involving each of the member countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, the Philippines, and Brunei). The authors focus on the ASEAN's efforts to promote regional cooperation in the face of the divisive economic, strategic, and diplomatic interests. ASEAN policy towards Indochina, is discussed in depth, as are efforts to create cooperative economic ventures. Their conclusion maintains that the success of ASEAN is due largely to the individual achievements of member nations rather than to ASEAN as an institution. Finally, they make a number of recommendations for improving ASEAN's effectiveness.

Milton Leitenberg has done us a great service. His balanced and comprehensive reconstruction of the history of Soviet submarine operations in Swedish waters will benefit all students of Soviet policy and practice in Northern Europe. The accompanying discussions of the domestic and international political contexts within which those submarine operations were perceived, responded to, and reported on, doubles the value of the work. The full Soviet military rationale for those operations may remain somewhat elusive, but Leitenberg has clearly provided us with a cogent description of their political consequences. Robert G. Weinland, Consultant, Washington, D.CThe book first presents a comprehensive account of the overall incidence of violations, not only in Sweden but in other countries as well, between 1970 and 1987. The author then shows that the provisional, more exploratory stages of the operations in Sweden apparently began well before 1980 and have continued despite the Soviet Union's public campaign for a Nordic Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone. An analysis of the incursions is given next, including a look at Sweden's response to a problem it may not have anticipated when its own preconceptions and the norms of international behavior were clearly contradicted by reality. Also discussed are the motives behind the Soviet submarine operations and various provocation theories.

The volume analyzes the political and economic effects of the Iran-Iraq war upon Iraq, focusing on whether the war has united Iraqi society in a way that has not happened since the country was established in 1920. It opens with an examination of Iraqi political development and U.S. policy toward Iraq. Following is a discussion of the various means of political consolidation of Iraq. The next chapter investigates the growth of Iraqi foreign policy in relation to both the Arab state and the superpowers. The book also predicts the country's ability to hold together under current military and economic pressure. Finally, the author discusses the future of U.S. policy toward Iraq. Policy makers, policy analysts, and scholars in Middle East studies will find this volume to be timely, well reasoned, and informative.

Galia Golan's concise but richly detailed monograph gives us the first look at Soviet policy toward terrorism under Gorbachev. Drawing on a wide array of Soviet sources, Dr. Golan traces the evolution in Soviet attitudes toward terrorism and support for movements of national liberation from Brezhnev to Gorbachev. She focuses specifically on the change in Soviet public positions toward a more explicit condemnation of terrorist acts. The debate is likely to continue over whether changing public positions reflect an actual shift in Soviet behavior, but Golan's book helps to frame that debate. All those who are interested in evaluating Soviet `new thinking' on an important global and regional issue should read this book. Dennis B. Ross Director, Policy Planning Staff U.S. Department of StateThis book examines the reevaluation of Soviet foreign policy under Gorbachev, known as the new thinking. This new foreign policy has produced a new Soviet attitude and, apparently, different behavior toward terrorism. In the past, terrorism was officially condemned either as a method employed by imperialist or capitalist regimes against an oppressed population or as an illegitimate offshoot of armed struggle, having nothing in common with genuine liberation struggles. Under Gorbachev, there is a reduction in Soviet aid to many groups using terrorism and a call for political solutions to ongoing conflicts. The latest volume in The Washington Papers series, Gorbachev's New Thinking on Terrorism will be of special interest to political scientists, Soviet specialists, or anyone interested in terrorism today.With a foreword by Walter laqueur Laqueur, this book begins with a detailed background study of Soviet attitudes toward terrorism, demonstrating the changes in Gorbachev's approach to the problem. Galia Golan, Darwin professor of Soviet and East European Studies at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, defines the differences between Gorbachev's rhetoric and the reality of the new thinking as the book explores reports and rumors of Soviet involvement in Pakistan and the Philippines. The book concludes with a look at current Soviet policy toward terrorist groups traditionally backed by the Soviet Union.

The proliferation of ballistic missiles in the Third World has posed a new type of challenge to policy makers in the United States. More than twenty Third World countries either possess surface-to-surface missiles or are trying to develop or acquire them. Current trends suggest that the number of countries with missiles will increase in the 1990s and that the capabilities of the available systems will also grow. W. Seth Carus assesses the threat of such proliferation to United States military forces as well as those of its allies operating in the Third World. The book studies the military utility of these missiles to the countries that possess them and covers the various military responses of Third World countries to missile proliferation.Carus also examines the various attempts the United States has made to slow the proliferation of ballistic missiles. Washington has joined many of its allies in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a suppliers agreement designed to restrict exports of missiles and missile technologies to the Third World. According to Carus, efforts have been made to persuade the Soviet Union, China and other countries to abide by the provisions of the MTCR. After discussing the bilateral talks with proliferating countries, Carus also analyzes the attempts made to derail specific missile programs and the difficulties involved in controlling missile technology.

Mikhail Gorbachev's rise to power in 1985 signalled the beginning of significant improvements in Soviet-Israeli relations--thoroughly examined in this carefully researched volume. Based on an analysis of Soviet behavior and interviews with Israeli and Soviet Foreign Ministry officials and PLO leaders, this study describes how eased tensions between the Soviet Union and Israel have been achieved and analyzes the Soviet Union's reasons for advancing diplomatic relations with Israel.Robert Owen Freedman follows the progress of Soviet policy from the 1985 meeting between the Soviet and Israeli ambassadors to France, to the 1987 arrival of the Soviet consular delegation in Israel, which heralded rapid improvement on the diplomatic front, to the 1989 trade agreements, cultural, academic, and athletic exchanges, and the 1990 political meetings between high ranking officials. Freedman identifies three primary goals that motivated these Soviet initiatives towards Israel: a desire to improve relations with the United States; a desire to play a major role in Middle East diplomacy; and a desire for trade with Israel. Both meticulously documented and forward-looking, the conclusions reached can stimulate discussion and provide a basis for further study for members of the academic, political, and diplomatic communities.

Seth Carus's book is a unique combination of scholarly discipline and astute political judgment. This is a succinct and insightful analysis of one of the most vital security challenges of this century. Janne E. Nolan Senior Fellow The Brookings Institution Since the vivid images of SCUD missile attacks on Israel and Saudi Arabia were flashed on television screens all over the world, many have wondered how a country like Iraq could acquire and use such long-range ballistic missiles. Although Iran and Iraq had fired these missiles at each other many times during their 1980-88 war, the threat posed by Saddam Hussein's missiles was not fully realized until the SCUDs began raining down on Israel, and Saudi Arabia at the start of the 1991 Persian Gulf War. This timely book by missile expert W. Seth Carus, written in cooperation with the Center for Strategic and International Studies and including a foreword by Edward N. Luttwak, contains an alarming assessment of the missile threat worldwide. An up-to-the-minute postscript on the American-Iraqi war and its effects on further ballistic missile proliferation throughout the Third World is also included. Carus presents the facts behind the spread of ballistic missiles and their technology to Third World countries and suggests plausible responses for the United States and its allies.Various developing nations--among them Iran, Iraq, Libya, North and South Korea, Brazil, Syria, Israel, Saudi Arabia, India, and South Africa--already possess large numbers of ballistic missiles and no longer rely on the superpowers alone for their weapons procurement or production. Carus covers all aspects of ballistic missiles--their capabilities and disadvantages, their possible fitting with chemical or nuclear warheads, their attractiveness for Third World leaders, and the responses of Third World countries to missile arsenals in neighboring states. The success of cruise missiles and anti-missile missiles (such as Patriots) in the Persian Gulf War make these missiles of even greater interest to Third World countries. Carus warns of the dire consequences of ignoring the spread of missiles and their technology to areas of the world where future wars are likely to occur.

The know-how and materials required to produce biological warfare agents are the same as those required for medical and veterinary products; biological warfare technology is quickly spreading across the globe. In this new study, Barend ter Haar argues that a policy of nonproliferation might slow down the current trend toward worldwide deployment of biological weapons, but it is ultimately doomed without a strengthened ban on them.Ter Haar discusses the Biological Weapons Convention of 1972, which did not categorically prohibit activities leading to biological weapons and failed to provide confidence-building measures and allegation procedures. He evaluates the confidence measures added in the 1986 Second Review Conference, and demonstrates how they were neglected by some countries. Ter Haar concludes that the Convention measures are almost unverifiable and proposes a stronger, universal ban that includes improved procedures, regular consultative meetings, extended information exchange restrictions, routine verification, challenge inspections, and other measures. This study is an important resource for professionals, students, and scholars of diplomacy, disarmament, international relations, and the protection of the environment.

The know-how and materials required to produce biological warfare agents are the same as those required for medical and veterinary products; biological warfare technology is quickly spreading across the globe. In this new study, Barend ter Haar argues that a policy of nonproliferation might slow down the current trend toward worldwide deployment of biological weapons, but it is ultimately doomed without a strengthened ban on them.Ter Haar discusses the Biological Weapons Convention of 1972, which did not categorically prohibit activities leading to biological weapons and failed to provide confidence-building measures and allegation procedures. He evaluates the confidence measures added in the 1986 Second Review Conference, and demonstrates how they were neglected by some countries. Ter Haar concludes that the Convention measures are almost unverifiable and proposes a stronger, universal ban that includes improved procedures, regular consultative meetings, extended information exchange restrictions, routine verification, challenge inspections, and other measures. This study is an important resource for professionals, students, and scholars of diplomacy, disarmament, international relations, and the protection of the environment.

No major twentieth-century power has so short a history of national intelligence agencies or activities as does the United States, and few have been as public or as tumultuous. A major debate has now opened over the future structure, size, and role of U.S. intelligence in the aftermath of the cold war. This unique and fully updated book is a history of the U.S. intelligence community--as well as a detailed description of the organization and function of the major components of the community as they existed at the beginning of 1992. A welcome and timely update of one of the most concise and objective guides to the history and structure of U.S. intelligence. Representative Dave McCurdy, Chairman, Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, U.S. House of RepresentativesThe history of the intelligence community can be divided into three distinct periods. From its creation in 1947 until the revelations and investigations of 1974-1975, the intelligence community operated under fairly broad grants of authority based on trust. After the Nixon administration, a previously dormant Congress was galvanized to write new oversight provisions and also took on a greater role as a shaper and consumer of intelligence. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the cold war in 1991, the intelligence community found its role and even its necessity questioned due to the sudden absence of its major target. Lowenthal emphasizes that a competent and challenged intelligence capability is an essential part of the U.S. national security structure, despite the status of external events or threats. The major requirement of this structure, he says, is providing timely, objective, and pointed analysis to policymakers across a wide range of issues.

Although the Pacific islands were front-page news during the 1941-1945 Pacific War, today they are seldom in the American consciousness--except as a perception of Micheneresque tropical paradises. But the islands--10,000 strong and scattered over nearly one-fifth of the earth's surface--still straddle or remain close to the sea and air lanes that link the United States with Australia and Asia, and carry nearly one-half of U.S. foreign trade. New political interests also exist with the recent emergence of a new panoply of independent Pacific island states, extension of U.S. sovereignty to other Pacific islands, and new defense responsibilities in several states linked to the United States by free association.John C. Dorrance offers an exceptionally authoritative and comprehensive assessment of U.S. interests in and policy toward a poorly understood region. The islands, highly aid dependent and uniquely vulnerable to external influences, have experienced insurrections, military coups, secessionist rebellion, political assassinations, Soviet in-roads, and even Libyan mischief-making. Ethnic conflict and developmental problems also threaten democratic institutions and the region's stability. Dorrance thoroughly explores the regional policy environment and the issues that face the United States. His book is of lasting value to scholars and especially to policy-makers and practitioners.

Ukraine played a key role in the dissolution of the former USSR, and its continued independence will have a decisive impact upon the transformation of Russia itself into either a new empire or Western democracy. The economic crisis and mismanagement that engulfed Ukraine during 1993 through 1994 led many in the West and among Ukraine's neighbors to question the country's long-term viability as an independent state. In 1995 Ukraine has entered a new era reflecting its importance as a linchpin of regional security and stability in Europe. This study discusses Ukrainian security policies and their implications for Western policy. It makes a compelling case for greater Western aid and political support for Ukrainian independence and territorial integrity.

China's economic and social progress toward modernization is one of the defining features of the last quarter of the 20th century. The emergence of China coincides with another development of equally important international implications—the revolution in information and telecommunication technology. But how compatible are the new China and the information age? The Chinese government intends to embrace market-oriented economic development while maintaining centralized control over politics, culture, and public discourse. The contradictions and tensions of this goal are especially acute in telecommunication and information technology markets, where the rest of the world is moving rapidly toward liberalization and globalization. Will China's economic reforms allow it to join the information revolution, or will its unique political structure keep it insulated from the main currents of global economic development? This volume is the first detailed examination of how China's reform process is playing out in the realm of information and telecommunications.

This book explores the emerging phenomenon of complex humanitarian emergencies and the evolving policies of the United States in responding to these emergencies. In addition, Andrew Natsios examines the relationship of disaster response to U.S. foreign policy and national interest, and makes suggestions for improving both relief strategies and systems for designing those strategies.To these issues Natsios brings his first-hand experience in numerous key positions. Mr. Natsios provides case study analysis from these experiences over the past five years to illustrate the arguments presented in the book, particularly regarding Somalia, Angola, Sudan, Panama, and Kuwait and Kurdistan following the Gulf War. As former president George Bush indicates in his foreword to the volume, this book will make a substantive contribution to continuing and enhancing vitally important work. Of great interest to scholars, researchers, and policy makers in the areas of contemporary American foreign policy and humanitarian activities abroad.

Countless editorials have addressed the if, how, why, when, and who dimensions of NATO enlargement. These issues will continue to generate debate despite the Madrid summit decisions and will invariably influence legislators in discharging their historic responsibility to provide advice and consent to ratification of the protocols of accession before April 1999. Congressman Solomon's volume will help place these issues in perspective, answer the skeptics of enlargement, and provide the missing historical context for the profound geopolitical challenge of European security on the cusp of the 21st century.He begins by reviewing NATO's initial response, from 1989 to 1990, to the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. The early moves from outreach toward enlargement are then explored, and then he examines how NATO sought to combine the two strands of prospective enlargement while engaging nations not seeking NATO membership, especially Russia, to prepare for coalition operations and the spread of democratic security values. Next he analyzes how the Partnership for Peace concept eventually progressed toward the decisions to invite the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland to join the alliance by 1999. Important reading for scholars, policymakers, and citizens concerned with current strategic and international relations issues.