The Brexit Effect, 2016-2026

Sir Anthony Seldon is one of the country's top political historians and acknowledged national authority on all matters to do with the government and No. 10. His book Churchill's Indian Summer: The Conservative Government, 1951–55 (1981) was published forty years ago, and since then he has written or edited many books, including The Blair Effect, 2001–5 (Cambridge, 2005), The Coalition Effect, 2010–2015 (Cambridge, 2015), The Conservative Effect, 2010–2024 (Cambridge, 2024) and The Impossible Office (Cambridge, 2024). He has been the honorary historian at No. 10 Downing Street and chair of the National Archives Trust, and has interviewed virtually all senior figures who have worked in No. 10 in the last fifty years.

'Ten years on from the divisive referendum, Seldon's timely publication acts as an informed 'conversation' between prominent leavers and remainers, sharing insights and points of view. And that's important. EU-UK relations are still evolving. Brexit may be 'done' but it's certainly not yet dusted.' Katya Adler

• Preface: ten years on: why this book? Sir Anthony Seldon; Introduction: Britain and Europe: the long view Lord Jonathan Sumption; Part I. The Referendum: Insider Views, 1992–2016: 1. The long march from 1992 Douglas Carswell; 2. The view inside David Cameron's No. 10 Baroness Kate Fall; 3. The view inside Jeremy Corbyn's court Emily Thornberry; 4. The view of a constitutional Brexiteer Baroness Gisela Stuart; 5. The view inside Fleet Street Lionel Barber; 6. Why voters chose Brexit (and then regretted their choice) Peter Kellner; 7. Brexit and Civil Service impartiality Helen MacNamara; Part II. Working Brexit Through: Insider Views, 2016–2022: 8. Was the Civil Service adequately prepared for Brexit? Lord Simon McDonald; 9. Brexit: a slogan in search of a strategy David Reynolds; 10. Brexit and Theresa May, 2016–2017 Chris Wilkins; 11. Brexit and Boris Johnson, 2016–2022 Sir Conor Burns; 12. The debate in Parliament, 2016–2019 Meg Russell; 13. Implementing Brexit: the failure to administer a revolution Lord Simon Case; Part III. The Impact, 2016–2026: 14. On Brexit and UK foreign policy Baroness Catherine Ashton; 15. On how Northern Ireland shaped Brexit and was changed forever Lord Paul Bew and Roderick Crawford; 16. On Scotland Aileen McHarg; 17. On transatlantic relations Lord Kim Darroch; 18. On the quality of government Jill Rutter and Alex Thomas; 19. On British politics Anand Menon; 20. On modelling the effects of Brexit on the British economy Patrick Minford and Zheyi Zhu; 21. On innovation and science in the UK and the EU Rohan Silva; 22. On public attitudes towards Brexit Sir John Curtice; 23. On immigration Madeleine Sumption; 24. On Britain's standing in the world Michael Clarke; 25. Singapore on Thames or the sick man of Europe?: The economics of Brexit ten years from the referendum Paul Johnson and Robert Johnson; Part IV. Changing Minds, 2016–2026: 26. The referendum ten years on: the journey from remain to leave Lord Nigel Biggar; 27. The neuroscience of Brexit: why we think what we think on Brexit Baroness Susan Greenfield; Part V: Where Now, 2026–2036?: 28. The survival of remain: from 'rejoin' to 'reset' Robert Tombs; 29. Perceptions beyond Europe Peter Frankopan; 30. Britain after Brexit Andy Haldane; 31. Lessons learned and hopes for the future Paul Stephenson; 32. Engaging with Europe as a sovereign nation Marina Wheeler; 33. Repairing Brexit: a squandered opportunity Peter Foster; 34. Bringing the nation together Lord Rowan Williams; 35. Brexit and geopolitics: Britain needs new, better and closer relations with the rest of Europe David Miliband; 36. Moving beyond the Brexit divide: towards a new tolerance by design Steve Baker and Paul Dolan; Conclusion: ten years on: some tentative conclusions Sir Anthony Seldon; Acknowledgements.