Wrong Number

AARON BROWN has used numbers to make bets and investigate questions all his life. He was playing poker in tavern backrooms and winning at the horse races while still in middle school. He was one of the top professional poker players in the 1970s and 80s, and is also successful in sports betting, advantage casino play and prediction market trading. Brown moved to Wall Street in the early 1980s to use the same skills as a trader, portfolio manager, head of mortgage securities and risk manager for top global financial institutions. He is a former Chief Risk Officer at AQR and winner of the 2011 GARP Risk Manager of the Year award. Brown holds degrees in applied mathematics from Harvard and finance and statistics from the University of Chicago. He has taught mathematics and finance at New York University, Columbia, and other institutions. Brown publishes frequently in academic and professional literature, and has served as a statistician on hundreds of scientific studies. He has been a data and methodology reviewer for major scientific journals. His previous books are The Poker Face of Wall Street, Red-Blooded Risk, A World of Chance, and Financial Risk Management for Dummies.

• ContentsForewordAcknowledgmentsChapter 1 The Story of Wrong NumberChapter 2 Did USAID Really Save 90 Million Lives? Not Unless It Raised the DeadChapter 3 Should Median Worker Pay Be $102,000? Gullible Reporters Think SoChapter 4 Could More COVID Eviction Moratoriums Have Cut US COVID Death Rates by 41%? NoChapter 5 Is Marijuana Bad For Your Heart? The Head Says “No”Chapter 6 No Data? No ProblemChapter 7 A Woven Web of GuessesChapter 8 The War to Make the World Safe for PainChapter 9 Smiles Make You Live Longer?Chapter 10 To Truth and Honesty, May They Never MeetChapter 11 Confidence Intervals in WartimeChapter 12 Repent! The End is NearChapter 13 Who Stole My Nobel Prize?Chapter 14 Why are there Poor Quants?Chapter 15 State-isticsChapter 16 Did Medicaid Expansion Save 100,000 Lives?Chapter 17 A Gun Control Love StoryChapter 18 Do You Feel Lucky? Well, Do Ya Punk?Chapter 19 Seventh-Inning StretchChapter 20 Ratpocalypse!Chapter 21 Unsettling Treatment of UnsettledChapter 22 Diversity + Equity + Inclusion = Better Performance?Chapter 23 21st-Century MuckrakingChapter 24 Philip TetlockChapter 25 Sex and Traffic CopsChapter 26 What is the Interest Rate in Hell?Chapter 27 The 5% SolutionChapter 28 Football FixesChapter 29 Private Rooms and Private EquityChapter 30 The Reason That They Don’t Teach at Schools Like WhartonChapter 31 Concluding ThoughtsReferencesAbout the AuthorIndex