GABRIEL R. SANCHEZ is a Professor of Political Science at the University of New Mexico, Executive Director of the UNM Center for Social Policy, and a principal for Latino Decisions, a political opinion research firm.LUIS RICARDO FRAGA is the Rev. Donald P. McNeill, C.S.C., Professor of Transformative Latino Leadership; Joseph and Elizabeth Robbie Professor of Political Science; and Director of the Institute for Latino Studies at the University of Notre Dame.RICARDO RAMÍREZ is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. He is the Director of the Hesburgh Program in Public Service and a faculty fellow in the Institute for Latino Studies.

“Latinos and the 2016 Election is an invaluable look back at a critical election that both marginalized and mobilized a key demographic of the American electorate. With substantive coverage of voters by age, gender, and national origin, as well as segments devoted to political developments by state, this clear, empirical assessment of current patterns and future trends provides a useful and timely primer of Latinos’ role in American elections heading into the 2020 election cycle, and beyond.”—MICHAEL JONES-CORREA, Presidential Professor of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania

• Contents Foreword by Rubén O. Martinez Preface by Gabriel R. Sanchez Latino Influence in the 2016 Presidential Election: Beyond All or Nothing by Justin H. Gross and Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina The Latino Rejection of the Trump Campaign: The Biggest Voter Gap on Record by Barbara Gomez-Aguinaga and Gabriel R. Sanchez The Latinx Gender Gap in the 2016 Election by Jessica Lavariega Monforti Did Latino Millennial Voters Turn Out in 2016? by Maria Livaudais, Edward D. Vargas, and Gabriel R. Sanchez Colorado: Latinos and the 2016 Election by Robert R. Preuhs Calexit: California Moves Left as the Nation Moves Right by Ivy A. M. Cargile, Jason L. Morin, and Adrian D. Pantoja Virginia’s New Latino Voters: The Future of the Nuevo South by Xavier Medina Vidal and Zessna García Ríos North Carolina Latinos and the 2016 Election by Betina Cutaia Wilkinson Ecological Inference Meets the Texas Two-Step by Francisco I. Pedraza and Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta Florida’s Latino Electorate in the 2016 Election by Benjamin G. Bishin and Casey A. Klofstad Demography Realized? The 2016 Latino Vote in Nevada by David F. Damore A Mirage in the Desert: Arizona and Latinos in the 2016 Presidential Election by Lisa M. Sanchez and Stephen A. Nuño-Pérez Mobilizing the Latino Vote? Partisan and Nonpartisan Selective Outreach of Latino Voters in the 2016 Election by Ricardo Ramírez and Juan Angel Valdez The Puerto Rican Diaspora in the 2016 Elections by Aileen Cardona-Arroyo Latinos in National Politics: 2016 and Beyond by Luis Ricardo Fraga Appendix: Discussion of the Latino Decisions Coverage of the 2016 Election by Joaquin Alfredo Angel Rubalcaba and Edward D. Vargas Contributors

GABRIEL R. SANCHEZ is a Professor of Political Science at the University of New Mexico, Executive Director of the UNM Center for Social Policy, and a principal for Latino Decisions, a political opinion research firm.LUIS RICARDO FRAGA is the Rev. Donald P. McNeill, C.S.C., Professor of Transformative Latino Leadership; Joseph and Elizabeth Robbie Professor of Political Science; and Director of the Institute for Latino Studies at the University of Notre Dame.RICARDO RAMÍREZ is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. He is the Director of the Hesburgh Program in Public Service and a faculty fellow in the Institute for Latino Studies.

“Latinos and the 2016 Election is an invaluable look back at a critical election that both marginalized and mobilized a key demographic of the American electorate. With substantive coverage of voters by age, gender, and national origin, as well as segments devoted to political developments by state, this clear, empirical assessment of current patterns and future trends provides a useful and timely primer of Latinos’ role in American elections heading into the 2020 election cycle, and beyond.”—MICHAEL JONES-CORREA, Presidential Professor of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania

• Contents Foreword by Rubén O. Martinez Preface by Gabriel R. Sanchez Latino Influence in the 2016 Presidential Election: Beyond All or Nothing by Justin H. Gross and Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina The Latino Rejection of the Trump Campaign: The Biggest Voter Gap on Record by Barbara Gomez-Aguinaga and Gabriel R. Sanchez The Latinx Gender Gap in the 2016 Election by Jessica Lavariega Monforti Did Latino Millennial Voters Turn Out in 2016? by Maria Livaudais, Edward D. Vargas, and Gabriel R. Sanchez Colorado: Latinos and the 2016 Election by Robert R. Preuhs Calexit: California Moves Left as the Nation Moves Right by Ivy A. M. Cargile, Jason L. Morin, and Adrian D. Pantoja Virginia’s New Latino Voters: The Future of the Nuevo South by Xavier Medina Vidal and Zessna García Ríos North Carolina Latinos and the 2016 Election by Betina Cutaia Wilkinson Ecological Inference Meets the Texas Two-Step by Francisco I. Pedraza and Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta Florida’s Latino Electorate in the 2016 Election by Benjamin G. Bishin and Casey A. Klofstad Demography Realized? The 2016 Latino Vote in Nevada by David F. Damore A Mirage in the Desert: Arizona and Latinos in the 2016 Presidential Election by Lisa M. Sanchez and Stephen A. Nuño-Pérez Mobilizing the Latino Vote? Partisan and Nonpartisan Selective Outreach of Latino Voters in the 2016 Election by Ricardo Ramírez and Juan Angel Valdez The Puerto Rican Diaspora in the 2016 Elections by Aileen Cardona-Arroyo Latinos in National Politics: 2016 and Beyond by Luis Ricardo Fraga Appendix: Discussion of the Latino Decisions Coverage of the 2016 Election by Joaquin Alfredo Angel Rubalcaba and Edward D. Vargas Contributors

GABRIEL R. SANCHEZ is a Professor of Political Science at the University of New Mexico, Executive Director of the UNM Center for Social Policy, and a principal for Latino Decisions, a political opinion research firm.LUIS RICARDO FRAGA is the Rev. Donald P. McNeill, C.S.C., Professor of Transformative Latino Leadership; Joseph and Elizabeth Robbie Professor of Political Science; and Director of the Institute for Latino Studies at the University of Notre Dame.RICARDO RAMÍREZ is an Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Notre Dame. He is the Director of the Hesburgh Program in Public Service and a faculty fellow in the Institute for Latino Studies.

“Latinos and the 2016 Election is an invaluable look back at a critical election that both marginalized and mobilized a key demographic of the American electorate. With substantive coverage of voters by age, gender, and national origin, as well as segments devoted to political developments by state, this clear, empirical assessment of current patterns and future trends provides a useful and timely primer of Latinos’ role in American elections heading into the 2020 election cycle, and beyond.”—MICHAEL JONES-CORREA, Presidential Professor of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania

• Contents Foreword by Rubén O. Martinez Preface by Gabriel R. Sanchez Latino Influence in the 2016 Presidential Election: Beyond All or Nothing by Justin H. Gross and Ivelisse Cuevas-Molina The Latino Rejection of the Trump Campaign: The Biggest Voter Gap on Record by Barbara Gomez-Aguinaga and Gabriel R. Sanchez The Latinx Gender Gap in the 2016 Election by Jessica Lavariega Monforti Did Latino Millennial Voters Turn Out in 2016? by Maria Livaudais, Edward D. Vargas, and Gabriel R. Sanchez Colorado: Latinos and the 2016 Election by Robert R. Preuhs Calexit: California Moves Left as the Nation Moves Right by Ivy A. M. Cargile, Jason L. Morin, and Adrian D. Pantoja Virginia’s New Latino Voters: The Future of the Nuevo South by Xavier Medina Vidal and Zessna García Ríos North Carolina Latinos and the 2016 Election by Betina Cutaia Wilkinson Ecological Inference Meets the Texas Two-Step by Francisco I. Pedraza and Bryan Wilcox-Archuleta Florida’s Latino Electorate in the 2016 Election by Benjamin G. Bishin and Casey A. Klofstad Demography Realized? The 2016 Latino Vote in Nevada by David F. Damore A Mirage in the Desert: Arizona and Latinos in the 2016 Presidential Election by Lisa M. Sanchez and Stephen A. Nuño-Pérez Mobilizing the Latino Vote? Partisan and Nonpartisan Selective Outreach of Latino Voters in the 2016 Election by Ricardo Ramírez and Juan Angel Valdez The Puerto Rican Diaspora in the 2016 Elections by Aileen Cardona-Arroyo Latinos in National Politics: 2016 and Beyond by Luis Ricardo Fraga Appendix: Discussion of the Latino Decisions Coverage of the 2016 Election by Joaquin Alfredo Angel Rubalcaba and Edward D. Vargas Contributors