Experts, Social Scientists, and Techniques of Prognosis in Cold War America

AvChristian Dayé

Inbunden, Engelska, 2020

Del i serien Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences

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Beskrivning

This book describes how Cold War researchers used expert opinions to construct foreknowledge of geopolitical relevance. Focusing on the RAND Corporation, an American think tank with close relations to the armed forces, Dayé analyses the development of two techniques of prognosis, the Delphi technique and Political Gaming. Based on archival research and interviews, the chapters explore the history of this series of experiments to understand how contemporary social scientists conceived of one of the core categories of the Cold War, the expert, and uncover the systematic use of expert opinions to craft prognoses.This consideration of the expert’s role in Cold War society and what that can tell us about the role of the expert today will be of interest to students and scholars across the history of science, the sociology of knowledge, future studies, the history of the Cold War, social science methodology, and social policy.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum:2020-01-17
Mått:148 x 210 x 19 mm
Vikt:458 g
Format:Inbunden
Språk:Engelska
Serie:Socio-Historical Studies of the Social and Human Sciences
Antal sidor:246
Förlag:Springer Nature Switzerland AG
ISBN:9783030327804

Utforska kategorier

Kulturvetenskap inom Samhälle och politik
Sociologi inom Samhälle och politik
Amerikas historia inom Historia och arkeologi

Mer om författaren

Christian Dayé is Research Fellow at the Science, Technology and Society (STS) Unit of Graz University of Technology, Austria.

Recensioner i media

“In the future, historians of social science would be wise to follow Dayé's recommendation to focus more of their work on explicating the historical embeddedness of research methods and techniques. Doing so will not only help us understand the latter on their own terms, but will also provide insight into the important role epistemology plays in shaping Americans' approach to the world.” (Daniel Bessner, Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, July 23, 2021)

Innehållsförteckning

1. Introduction: A Culture of Insecurity and its Experts.- 2. Experts, Think Tanks, and the Delicate Balance of Public Trust. - 3. The Wisdom of the Group: RAND's First Experiments with Expert Prediction, 1947-1951.- 4. Negotiating Rules for the Game: Political Games at RAND, 1954-1956.- 5. The Oracle's Epistemology: Expert Opinions as Scientific Material.- 6.The Boredom of the Crowd: The Long-Range Forecasting Delphi, 1963-1964.- 7. Conclusion: The Strength of Epistemic Hopes.