Innovations for our Future

Delphi ’98: New Foresight on Science and Technology

AvKerstin Cuhls,Knut Blind

Häftad, Engelska, 2001

Del i serien Technology, Innovation and Policy (ISI)

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Beskrivning

Innovations for our Future describes not only the big development trends of the future in research and technology, but also the re-discovery of the Delphi method.

Produktinformation

Utgivningsdatum:2001-10-09
Mått:155 x 235 x 16 mm
Vikt:441 g
Format:Häftad
Språk:Engelska
Serie:Technology, Innovation and Policy (ISI)
Antal sidor:271
Förlag:Physica-Verlag GmbH & Co
ISBN:9783790814347

Utforska kategorier

Innehållsförteckning

1 History and Basic Methods.- 1.1 What can we know about the future?.- 1.2 On the history of modern foresight.- 1.3 From forecasting to foresight.- 1.4 Methodological tool-kit of foresight.- 1.5 Forward looking over time: the career of the Delphi method.- 1.6 Benefits of foresight in general.- 2 Outline of the Second Comprehensive Outline of Delphi Study in Germany.- 2.1 What are the key questions?.- 2.2 Organisation of the Delphi process.- 2.3 Questionnaire.- 2.4 Who was surveyed?.- 2.5 Method of calculation and formulae used.- 3 Aggregated Assessments across all Subject Areas.- 3.1 Expertise of the experts taking part.- 3.2 Importance of the Delphi topics.- 3.3 Expected time of realisation of the visions.- 3.4 Germany’s position in research and development: self-perception.- 3.5 What measures should be taken?.- 3.6 Which areas of life are threatened by problems resulting from innovations?.- 3.7 Identical topics in several subject areas.- 3.8 What lies ahead? An overview.- 4 The Subject Areas.- 4.1 Information and Communication.- 4.2 Service and Consumption.- 4.3 Management and Production.- 4.4 Chemistry and Materials.- 4.5 Health and Life Processes.- 4.6 Agriculture and Food.- 4.7 Environment and Nature.- 4.8 Energy and Resources.- 4.9 Construction and Living.- 4.10 Mobility and Transport.- 4.11 Space.- 4.12 Big Science Experiments.- 5 Megatrends: Stereotyped Thinking Pattern of the Experts?.- 5.1 Megatrends in Delphi ‘98 and their influence on science and technology.- 5.2 Factor analysis to determine R&D experts’ attitudes.- 5.3 Similarities and differences in the estimation of the future development of science and technology.- 5.4 Different estimations concerning innovation fields — A selection.- 5.5 Selected topics with significantly different estimationsby the expert types.- 6 Comparison of the Asessments between Delphi ‘98 and Former Studies.- 7 German-Japanese Comparison.- 7.1 All topics.- 7.2 Information and Communication.- 7.3 Services and Consumption.- 7.4 Management and Production.- 7.5 Chemistry and Materials.- 7.6 Health and Life Processes.- 7.7 Agriculture and Food.- 7.8 Environment and Nature.- 7.9 Energy and Resources.- 7.10 Construction and Living.- 7.11 Mobility and Transport.- 7.12 Space.- 7.13 Big Science Experiments.- 8 Selected Methodological Problems.- 8.1 The application of Delphi ‘98 results.- 8.2 New foresight paradigms in comparing recent national activities in foresight?.- 8.3 Choice of experts.- 8.4 The integration of existing foresight activities.- 8.5 New foresight approaches.- 8.6 Databases as a means of foresight.- 8.7 Why do politics, academia, and business need assessment and foresight?.- 9 Outlook.- 9.1 Foresight in Germany: FUTUR’s second start.- 9.2 Challenges of tomorrow.- Literature.