Shripad Tuljapurkar – författare

This volume describes the biology of the life cycle (age, size, development stage, for example) and follows the transitions of individuals through stages in the life cycle (survival, growth, development, and reproduction). They are an alternative to models that describe populations in terms of total numbers or biomass. Such models, which depend much more intensively on computer firepower than aggregate or logistic models, have taken a central place in ecological investigations in the last decade. Making appropriate assumptions about their parameters, the ecologist can describe constant environments, time-varying environments, density-dependent populations, and species-species or species-resource interactions with these models.

In the 21st century, the populations of the world’s nations will display large and long-lived changes in age structure. Many of these began with fertility change and are amplified by declining mortality and by migration within and between nations. Demography will matter in this century not by force of numbers, but by the pressures of waves of age structural change.Many developing countries are in relatively early stages of fertility decline and will experience age waves for two or more generations. These waves create shifting flows of people into the key age groups, greatly complicating the task of managing development, from building human capabilities and creating jobs to growing industry, infrastructure and institutions. In this book, distinguished scientists examine key demographic, social, economic, and policy aspects of age structural change in developing economies. This book provides a joint examination of dimensions of age structural change that have often been considered in isolation from each other (for example, education, job creation, land use, health); it uses case studies to examine policy consequences and options and develops qualitative and formal methods to analyze the dynamics and consequences of age structural change.

In the 21st century, the populations of the world’s nations will display large and long-lived changes in age structure. Many of these began with fertility change and are amplified by declining mortality and by migration within and between nations. Demography will matter in this century not by force of numbers, but by the pressures of waves of age structural change.Many developing countries are in relatively early stages of fertility decline and will experience age waves for two or more generations. These waves create shifting flows of people into the key age groups, greatly complicating the task of managing development, from building human capabilities and creating jobs to growing industry, infrastructure and institutions. In this book, distinguished scientists examine key demographic, social, economic, and policy aspects of age structural change in developing economies. This book provides a joint examination of dimensions of age structural change that have often been considered in isolation from each other (for example, education, job creation, land use, health); it uses case studies to examine policy consequences and options and develops qualitative and formal methods to analyze the dynamics and consequences of age structural change.

In rapidly industrializing countries, demographic changes continue to have significant effects on the well-being of individuals and families, and as aggregate human and financial capital. These effects may be analyzed in terms of inter-generational transfers of time, money, goods, and services. The chapters in this volume greatly develop our understanding of the nature and measurement of transfers, their motives and mechanisms, and their macro-level dimensions, especially in the context of demographic transitions.The chapters include original empirical analyses of datasets from some twenty countries taking the reader beyond the American context in order to test the applicability of some of the theories developed on the basis of American data. They extend the traditional analysis of inter-generational transfers by examining different types of transfers, namely goods, money, assets, time, co-residence and visits. Furthermore, the chapters go beyond the study of traditional parent – child transfers to examine transfers to kins and the bi-directionality of transfers.

In rapidly industrializing countries, demographic changes continue to have significant effects on the well-being of individuals and families, and as aggregate human and financial capital. These effects may be analyzed in terms of inter-generational transfers of time, money, goods, and services. The chapters in this volume greatly develop our understanding of the nature and measurement of transfers, their motives and mechanisms, and their macro-level dimensions, especially in the context of demographic transitions.The chapters include original empirical analyses of datasets from some twenty countries taking the reader beyond the American context in order to test the applicability of some of the theories developed on the basis of American data. They extend the traditional analysis of inter-generational transfers by examining different types of transfers, namely goods, money, assets, time, co-residence and visits. Furthermore, the chapters go beyond the study of traditional parent – child transfers to examine transfers to kins and the bi-directionality of transfers.

Demography relates observable facts about individuals to the dynamics of populations. If the dynamics are linear and do not change over time, the classical theory of Lotka (1907) and Leslie (1945) is the central tool of demography. This book addresses the situation when the assumption of constancy is dropped. In many practical situations, a population will display unpredictable variation over time in its vital rates, which must then be described in statistical terms. Most of this book is concerned with the theory of populations which are subject to random temporal changes in their vital rates, although other kinds of variation (e. g. , cyclical) are also dealt with. The central questions are: how does temporal variation work its way into a population's future, and how does it affect our interpretation of a population's past. The results here are directed at demographers of humans and at popula­ tion biologists. The uneven mathematical level is dictated by the material, but the book should be accessible to readers interested in population the­ ory. (Readers looking for background or prerequisites will find much of it in Hal Caswell's Matrix population models: construction, analysis, and in­ terpretation (Sinauer 1989) ). This book is in essence a progress report and is deliberately brief; I hope that it is not mystifying. I have not attempted to be complete about either the history or the subject, although most sig­ nificant results and methods are presented.

The papers included explore many examples and strengthen the basis for effective economic and social policies by investigating the economic, social, and demographic consequences of the transformations in the structures of population and family.