Shripad Tuljapurkar – författare

In the 21st century, the populations of the world’s nations will display large and long-lived changes in age structure. Many of these began with fertility change and are amplified by declining mortality and by migration within and between nations. Demography will matter in this century not by force of numbers, but by the pressures of waves of age structural change.

Many developing countries are in relatively early stages of fertility decline and will experience age waves for two or more generations. These waves create shifting flows of people into the key age groups, greatly complicating the task of managing development, from building human capabilities and creating jobs to growing industry, infrastructure and institutions. In this book, distinguished scientists examine key demographic, social, economic, and policy aspects of age structural change in developing economies.

This book provides a joint examination of dimensions of age structural change that have often been considered in isolation from each other (for example, education, job creation, land use, health); it uses case studies to examine policy consequences and options and develops qualitative and formal methods to analyze the dynamics and consequences of age structural change.

In rapidly industrializing countries, demographic changes continue to have significant effects on the well-being of individuals and families, and as aggregate human and financial capital. These effects may be analyzed in terms of inter-generational transfers of time, money, goods, and services. The chapters in this volume greatly develop our understanding of the nature and measurement of transfers, their motives and mechanisms, and their macro-level dimensions, especially in the context of demographic transitions.

The chapters include original empirical analyses of datasets from some twenty countries taking the reader beyond the American context in order to test the applicability of some of the theories developed on the basis of American data. They extend the traditional analysis of inter-generational transfers by examining different types of transfers, namely goods, money, assets, time, co-residence and visits. Furthermore, the chapters go beyond the study of traditional parent – child transfers to examine transfers to kins and the bi-directionality of transfers.

Population growth slowed across the world in the last decades of the 20th century, changing substantially our view of the future. The 21st century is likely to see the end to world population growth and become the century of population aging, marked by low fertility and ever-increasing life expectancy. These trends have prompted many to predict a gloomy future caused by an unprecedented economic burden of population aging. In response, industrialized nations will need to implement effective social and economic policies and programs.

This is the final volume in a series of three. The papers included explore many examples and strengthen the basis for effective economic and social policies by investigating the economic, social, and demographic consequences of the transformations in the structures of population and family. These consequences include changes in economic behavior, both in labor and financial markets, and with regard to saving and consumption,and intergenerational transfers of money and care.