Carnegie Endowment for International Peace – förlag

In the modern era, political leaders and scholars have declared the rule of law to be essential to democracy, a necessity for economic growth, and a crucial tool in the fight for security at home and stability abroad. The United States has spent billions attempting to catalyze rule-of-law improvements within other countries. Yet despite the importance of the goal to core foreign policy needs, and the hard work of hundreds of practitioners on the ground, the track record of successful rule-of-law promotion has been paltry.

In Advancing the Rule of Law Abroad, Rachel Kleinfeld describes the history and current state of reform efforts and the growing movement of second-generation reformers who view the rule of law not as a collection of institutions and laws that can be built by outsiders, but as a relationship between the state and society that must be shaped by those inside the country for lasting change. Based on research in countries from Indonesia to Albania, Kleinfeld makes a compelling case for new methods of reform that can have greater chances of success.

This book offers a comprehensive overview of this growing area of policy action where diplomacy and aid meet the domestic policies of other states. Its insights into the practical methods and moral complexities of supporting reform within other countries will be useful to practitioners and students alike.

Pluralism in the Arab world has not yet matured into functional democratic politics. While ruling establishments, Islamist movements, and secular parties have introduced a much greater degree of pluralism into Arab societies, the imbalance of power and interdependence among these actors limits both the degree of political diversity and its effectiveness at bringing about reforms. The Arab world is likely to grapple with political apathy, low voter turnout, dwindling membership in registered parties, and shrinking constituencies for the foreseeable future. Even the Islamists, who demonstrated great ability to organize and gain followers in the past, have begun showing signs of decreasing popularity.

Getting to Pluralism: Political Actors in the Arab World explores the balance of power between the disparate political forces of the Arab world. The essays in this volume examine the characteristics of the major political actors in great detail and assess the weaknesses of the secular parties. They also illustrate the complexities of Islamist participation in the political processes of several Arab countries—pointing out both similarities and differences. Finally, the authors evaluate how incumbent Arab regimes have been able to maintain their grip on power in spite of their claims that they support political and social reform.

At the dawn of the twentieth century, observers heralded a new era of social progress, seemingly limitless technological advances, and world peace. But within only a few years, the world was perched on the brink of war, revolution, and human misery on an unprecedented scale. Is it possible that today, in the early twenty-first century, we are on the verge of similar, tumultuous times? Blending a detailed knowledge of international security affairs with history, philosophy, psychology, and literature, Thérèse Delpech vividly reminds us of the signs and warnings that were missed as the "civilized" world failed to prevent both world wars, the Holocaust, Soviet death camps, and Cambodian killing fields that made the twentieth century so deadly. Drawing a parallel between 1905 and 2005, Delpech warns that it could happen again in this current era of increasing international violence and global lawlessness. She looks ahead to imagine various scenarios and regions that could become flashpoints in the future. Winner of the 2005 Prix Femina de l''essai. Praise for the original French edition, L''Ensauvagement "One doesn''t know what to admire most in this book: the precision of information, the scope of reference, the originality of the approach?" —Le Nouvel Observateur "From Iranian nuclear ambitions to the Taiwan question, Delpech reviews all the situations which might lead mankind to succumb to the perennial temptation of savagery—a passionate and lucid book." —L''argus de la presse "L''ensauvagement transcends its surface content, articulating great hope that our reason and will might take hold and overcome unreason." —Politique étrangère "Combining introspection and prediction, geopolitics and philosophy, Thérèse Delpech has issued a warning cry." —Politique Internationale

Beset with persistent problems of self-interest, corruption, ideological incoherence, and narrow electoral majorities, political parties are the weakest link in many democratic transitions around the world. A large and ever-growing number of U.S., European, and multilateral assistance programs seek to help parties become effective pro-democratic actors. But given the depth of the problems, is success possible? C onfronting the Weakest Link is a pathbreaking study of international aid for political parties. Beginning with a penetrating analysis of party shortcomings in developing and postcommunist countries, Thomas Carothers draws on extensive field research to diagnose chronic deficiencies in party aid, assess its overall impact, and offer practical ideas for doing better. This critical analysis spans Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. It sheds invaluable light on a major element of the contemporary challenge of democracy building, a subject now occupying center stage in the international policy arena.

Among U.S. allies in the war against terrorism, Pakistan cannot be easily characterized as either friend or foe. Nuclear-armed Pakistan is an important center of radical Islamic ideas and groups. Since 9/11, the selective cooperation of president General Pervez Musharraf in sharing intelligence with the United States and apprehending al Qaeda members has led to the assumption that Pakistan might be ready to give up its longstanding ties with radical Islam. But Pakistan''s status as an Islamic ideological state is closely linked with the Pakistani elite''s worldview and the praetorian ambitions of its military. This book analyzes the origins of the relationships between Islamist groups and Pakistan''s military, and explores the nation''s quest for identity and security. Tracing how the military has sought U.S. support by making itself useful for concerns of the moment—while continuing to strengthen the mosque-military alliance within Pakistan—Haqqani offers an alternative view of political developments since the country''s independence in 1947.

This revised edition includes and examination of the recent presidential and parliamentary elections and their effects on Putin''s leadership and Russia. Praise for the previous edition: "Out of her blunt, often acerbic, account come shrewd insights into Putin''s transformation from an implausible, contrived successor into a dominator unchallenged by oligarchs, legislators, or regional bosses, let alone a democratic opposition."—Foreign Affairs "Shevtsova is one of the most astute and independent-minded observers of the Russian political scene."—Times Literary Supplement "Offers many insights into Kremlin court politics, as well as Mr. Putin and his foes."—The Economist "This well-informed Russian observer offers a straightforward situation report. Shevtsova''s scorecard will interest serious Russia watchers."—Booklist "An insightful account of how the Russian president is swaying on a pendulum between reform and stability."—Survival "A timely, expert book."—Washington Post

In Uzbekistan, Central Asia''s most populous country, Islam has been an ever-present factor in the lives of its people and a contentious force for political officials trying to build a secular and authoritarian government.

In the Whirlwind of Jihad examines the intertwined and evolving relationships between religion, the state, and society in Uzbekistan from the late 1980s to today, encompassing the period from the collapse of the Soviet Union to the launch of the U.S.-led "war on terror" in neighboring Afghanistan. Martha Brill Olcott, the foremost expert on Central Asia, concludes that in an era of global communication and increased contact with international Islamic communities, a new role for Islam in Uzbekistan will ultimately emerge with implications beyond the country''s borders.

The first detailed Iranian account of the diplomatic struggle between Iran and the international community, The Iranian Nuclear Crisis: A Memoir opens in 2002, as news of Iran''s clandestine uranium enrichment and plutonium production facilities emerge. Seyed Hossein Mousavian, previously the head of the Foreign Relations Committee of Iran''s Supreme National Security Council and spokesman for Tehran''s nuclear negotiating team, brings the reader into Tehran''s private deliberations as its leaders wrestle with internal and external adversaries.

Mousavian provides readers with intimate knowledge of Iran''s interactions with the International Atomic Energy Agency and global powers. His personal story comes alive as he vividly recounts his arrest and interrogations on charges of espionage. Dramatic episodes of diplomatic missions tell much about the author and the swirling dynamics of Iranian politics and diplomacy—undercurrents that must be understood now more than ever.

As intense debate continues over the direction of Iran''s nuclear program, Mousavian weighs the likely effects of military strikes, covert action, sanctions, and diplomatic engagement, considering their potential to resolve the nuclear crisis.

Contents

1. The Origin and Development of Iran''s Nuclear Program

2. The First Crisis

3. From Tehran to Paris

4. From the Paris Agreement to the 2005 Presidential Election

5. The Larijani Period

6. To the Security Council

7. Back to the Security Council and a New Domestic Situation

8. Iran Alone: The Jalili Period

9. U.S. Engagement

10. The Crisis Worsens

11. Conclusion

Tajikistan teeters on the brink of failure. This mountainous and landlocked country, the poorest in Central Asia, confronts the challenges of good governance and economic survival. These domestic struggles become even more problematic as international forces prepare to withdraw from neighboring Afghanistan, leaving Central Asian countries to ensure regional stability.

In Tajikistan''s Difficult Development Path, Martha Brill Olcott traces the political, economic, and social change following the country''s independence and international efforts to avert state collapse. The Tajik government''s commitment to reform has been inconsistent, and substantial foreign assistance provided since the end of the country''s civil war has not led to the desired economic and political development.

Olcott concludes that the Tajik leadership faces a serious dilemma: fully embrace reform or continue moving toward state failure. Tajikistan''s decision will have very real implications for this troubled region.

Global power is shifting to Asia. The U.S. military is embarking on an American "pivot" to the Indo-Pacific region, and the bulk of global arms spending is directed toward Asian theaters. India and Pakistan are thought to be building up their nuclear arsenals while questions persist about China''s potential to "sprint to parity." China remains by far the world''s largest market for new nuclear energy production, and India aspires to be on a similar trajectory.

Despite these trends, The China-India Nuclear Crossroads is the first serious book by leading Chinese and Indian experts to examine the political, military, and technical factors that affect Sino-Indian nuclear relations. In this book, editor and translator Lora Saalman presents a comprehensive framework through which China and India can pursue enhanced cooperation and minimize the unintended consequences of their security dilemmas.

From the landmines campaign to the Seattle protests against the WTO to the World Commission on Dams, transnational networks of civil society groups are seizing an ever-greater voice in how governments run countries and how corporations do business. This volume brings together a multinational group of authors to help policy makers, scholars, business people, and activists themselves understand the profound issues raised.

Contributors include Fredrik Galtung, Rebecca Johnson, Sanjeev Khagram, Chetan Kumar, Motoko Mekata, Thomas Risse, P.J. Simmons, and Yahya Dehqanzada.

Rising China and emerging India are becoming major maritime powers. As they build large navies to secure their growing interests, both nations are roiling the waters of the Indo-Pacific—the vast littoral stretching from Africa to Australasia.

Invoking a tale from Hindu mythology— Samudra Manthan or "to churn the ocean"—C. Raja Mohan tells the story of a Sino-Indian rivalry spilling over from the Great Himalayas into the Indian and Pacific Oceans. He examines the prospects of mitigating the tensions and constructing a stable Indo-Pacific order.

America, the dominant power in the area, is being drawn into the unfolding Sino-Indian competition. Despite the huge differences in the current naval capabilities of China, India, and the United States, Mohan argues that the three countries are locked in a triangular struggle destined to mold the future Indo-Pacific.

As the Internet diffuses across the globe, many have come to believe that the technology poses an insurmountable threat to authoritarian rule. Grounded in the Internet''s early libertarian culture and predicated on anecdotes pulled from diverse political climates, this conventional wisdom has informed the views of policymakers, business leaders, and media pundits alike. Yet few studies have sought to systematically analyze the exact ways in which Internet use may lay the basis for political change. In O pen Networks, Closed Regimes, the authors take a comprehensive look at how a broad range of societal and political actors in eight authoritarian and semi-authoritarian countries employ the Internet. Based on methodical assessment of evidence from these cases—China, Cuba, Singapore, Vietnam, Burma, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt—the study contends that the Internet is not necessarily a threat to authoritarian regimes.

Almost fifteen years after the end of the Cold War, the process of creating a "Europe whole and free" is incomplete and likely to be so for the foreseeable future. In this volume, a group of highly distinguished contributors from both East and West examines the complicated and multi-faceted process of NATO and EU enlargement in the context of the changed global situation since the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. This book examines the enlargement processes not only from the perspective of the West and western institutions, but also from the point of view of the former communist countries. If an enlarged NATO and EU are to be stable and successful in the long run, they must take account of the wishes and interests of both their new, former-communist members and those European states that will not become members of either NATO or the EU in the foreseeable future Contributors include Christopher Bobinski (Unia & Polska), Vladimir Baranovsky (Institute of the World Economy and International Relations), Heather Grabbe (Center for European Reform), Karl-Heinz Kamp (Konrad Adenauer Foundation), Charles King (Georgetown University), Alexander J. Motyl (Center for Global Change and Governance), Zaneta Ozolina (University of Latvia), Alexander Sergounin (Nizhny Novgorod Linguistic University), William Wallace (London School of Economics), and Leonid Zaiko (Strategy Center).

Globalization is pushing to the fore a wide variety of global problems that demand urgent policy attention. Managing Global Issues provides a comprehensive comparative assessment of international efforts to manage global problems. It identifies and explains successes and failures of such efforts, examines the roles of different actors, and outlines lessons that may guide future action by governments, international organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector. The volume''s 16 case studies examine organized crime, drugs, corruption, human rights, labor rights, health, trade, financial markets, development assistance, the environment, the global commons, communications, weapons of mass destruction, conventional weapons, internal conflicts, and refugees. Managing Global Issues is the result of an international multidisciplinary research team composed of experts in specific global issue areas. The book''s broad scope, numerous case studies and its rigorous comparative analytical framework offers a unique and valuable contribution to the rapidly growing literature on global governance. Contributors include Vinod K. Aggarwal (University of California, Berkeley), Thomas Bernauer (University of Zürich), William Drake (Carnegie Endowment), Octavio Gómez-Dantés (National Institute of Public Health, Mexico), Catherine Gwin (World Bank), Peter M. Haas (University of Massachusetts, Amherst), Christopher C. Joyner (Georgetown University), Brian Langille (University of Toronto), Robert E. Litan (Brookings Institution), Kathleen Newland (Carnegie Endowment), Peter Richardson (Transparency International), Peter H. Sand (Institute of International Law, Munich), Dinah L. Shelton (Notre Dame Law School), Timothy D. Sisk (University of Denver), Joanna Spear (King''s College, London), and Phil Williams (University of Pittsburgh).

Aid to promote democracy abroad has emerged as a major growth industry in recent years. Not only the United States but many other Western countries, international institutions, and private foundations today use aid to support democratic transitions in Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Though extensive in scope, these activities remain little understood outside the realm of specialists. Debates among policymakers over democracy promotion oscillate between unhelpful poles of extreme skepticism and unrealistic boosterism, while the vast majority of citizens in aid-providing countries have little awareness of the democracy-building efforts their governments sponsor. Aiding Democracy Abroad is the first independent, comprehensive assessment of this important new field. Drawing on extensive field research and years of hands-on experience, Thomas Carothers examines democracy-aid programs relating to elections, political parties, governmental reform, rule of law, civil society, independent media, labor unions, decentralization, and other elements of what he describes as "the democracy template" that policymakers and aid officials apply around the world. Steering a careful path between the inflated claims of aid advocates and the exaggerated criticisms of their opponents, Carothers takes a hard look at what such programs achieve and how they can be improved.

Against the long sweep of economic history, the current moment is special. Living standards advanced so rapidly and across so many countries over the last decade that it is difficult to think of parallels—even the deepest recession since the Great Depression did not halt progress.

In Juggernaut, Uri Dadush and William Shaw explore the rise of developing countries and how they will reshape the economic landscape. Dadush and Shaw project that the global economy will more than triple over the next forty years and the advance of a large group of developing countries—home to most of the world''s population but seen as supplicants rather than trendsetters less than a generation ago—will drive this improvement. The authors systematically examine the effects of this seismic shift on the main avenues of globalization—trade, finance, migration, and the global commons—and identify the policy options available to leaders in managing the transformation.

In the years to come, the rise of emerging economies will likely enhance prosperity but also create great tensions that could slow the process or even stop it in its tracks. Juggernaut calls for leadership by the largest countries in managing these tensions, and underscores the need to cultivate a "global conscience."

The emergence of the People''s Republic of China on the world scene constitutes the most significant event in world politics since the end of World War II. As the world''s predominant political, economic, and military power, the United States faces a particularly significant challenge in responding to China''s rising power and influence, especially in Asia.

Offering a fresh perspective on current and future U.S. policy toward China, Michael Swaine examines the basic interests and beliefs behind U.S.-China relations, recent U.S. and Chinese policy practices in seven key areas, and future trends most likely to affect U.S. policy. American leaders, he concludes, must reexamine certain basic assumptions and approaches regarding America''s position in the Western Pacific, integrate China policy more effectively into a broader Asian strategy, and recalibrate the U.S. balance between cooperative engagement and deterrence toward Beijing.

The war in Georgia. Tensions with Ukraine and other nearby countries. Moscow''s bid to consolidate its "zone of privileged interests" among the Commonwealth of Independent States. These volatile situations all raise questions about the nature of and prospects for Russia''s relations with its neighbors.

In this book, Carnegie scholar Dmitri Trenin argues that Moscow needs to drop the notion of creating an exclusive power center out of the post-Soviet space. Like other former European empires, Russia will need to reinvent itself as a global player and as part of a wider community.

Trenin''s vision of Russia is an open Euro-Pacific country that is savvy in its use of soft power and fully reconciled with its former borderlands and dependents. He acknowledges that this scenario may sound too optimistic but warns that the alternative is not a new version of the historic empire but instead is the ultimate marginalization of Russia.

A new lens on development is changing the world of international aid. The overdue recognition that development in all sectors is an inherently political process is driving aid providers to try to learn how to think and act politically.

Major donors are pursuing explicitly political goals alongside their traditional socioeconomic aims and introducing more politically informed methods throughout their work. Yet these changes face an array of external and internal obstacles, from heightened sensitivity on the part of many aid-receiving governments about foreign political interventionism to inflexible aid delivery mechanisms and entrenched technocratic preferences within many aid organizations.

This pathbreaking book assesses the progress and pitfalls of the attempted politics revolution in development aid and charts a constructive way forward.

Contents:

Introduction

1. The New Politics Agenda

The Original Framework: 1960s-1980s

2. Apolitical Roots

Breaking the Political Taboo: 1990s-2000s

3. The Door Opens to Politics

4. Advancing Political Goals

5. Toward Politically Informed Methods

The Way Forward

6. Politically Smart Development Aid

7. The Unresolved Debate on Political Goals

8. The Integration Frontier

Conclusion

9. The Long Road to Politics

The geopolitical significance of the Sahara is becoming painfully clear. Islamist militant groups and transnational criminal networks are operating in the region''s most fragile states, exploiting widespread corruption, weak government capacity, crushing poverty, and entrenched social and ethnic tensions. The unrest spills over borders and aggravates protracted regional crises.

This insecurity raises urgent concerns for the broader Sahara and the West. Perilous Desert details the sources of instability and what can be done to minimize the threat of simmering conflicts.

Leading experts, through comprehensive accounts of the changing landscape, demonstrate how foreign assistance that relies exclusively on counterterrorism will only exacerbate the problems. Solutions require understanding and combatting the roots of the Sahara''s many challenges.

Russian influence in Central Asia is waning. Since attaining independence, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan have forged their own paths—building relationships with outside powers and throwing off the last vestiges of Soviet domination. But in many ways, Moscow still sees Central Asia through the lens of the Soviet Union, and it struggles to redefine Russian relations with the region.

In The Fight for Influence, Alexey Malashenko offers a comprehensive analysis of Russian policies and prospects in Central Asia. It is clear that Russian policy in the formerly Soviet-controlled region is entering uncharted territory. But does Moscow understand the fundamental shifts under way? Malashenko argues that it is time for Russia to rethink its approach to Central Asia.

Contents 1. Wasted Opportunities 2. Regional Instruments of Influence 3. Russia and Islam in Central Asia: Problems of Migration 4. Kazakhstan and Its Neighborhood 5. Kyrgyzstan—The Exception 6. Tajikistan: Authoritarian, Fragile, and Facing Difficult Challenges 7. Turkmenistan: No Longer Exotic, But Still Authoritarian 8. Uzbekistan: Is There a Potential for Change? Conclusion Who Challenges Russia in Central Asia?

The European Union is mired in the worst crisis it has seen for many decades. And the crisis does not stop at Europe''s edge. It threatens to undercut the EU''s ambitions to develop a coherent and active foreign policy, but it is also forcing European states to reevaluate their approach to security and defense.

Richard Youngs examines the legacy of the crisis and what it will mean for the EU''s international role. The fallout undermines the EU''s foreign policy capacity and tarnishes its normative brand, compelling some member states to focus on realpolitik and their own national-level policies. But there are also signs of enhanced European cooperation, greater international ambition, and deepened commitment to the values of a liberal world order. Youngs details how the EU can craft an effective foreign policy strategy while confronting an internal economic crisis and a reshaped global order.

Turkey, with a robust modern economy and growing energy needs, is pursuing a switch to nuclear power. But that shift is occurring in an environment fraught with security challenges: Turkey borders Iraq, Syria, and Iran—all states with nuclear or WMD ambitions or capabilities. As a NATO member, Turkey also hosts U.S. nuclear bombs on its territory, although some question the durability of this relationship.   This dynamic has naturally led to speculation that Turkish leaders might someday consider moving beyond a civilian course to develop nuclear weapons. Yet there has been remarkably little informed analysis and debate on Turkey''s nuclear future, either within the country or in broader international society.   This volume explores the current status and trajectory of Turkey''s nuclear program, adding historical perspective, analytical rigor, and strategic insight.

India has fallen far and fast from the runaway growth rates it enjoyed in the first decade of the twenty-first century. In order to reverse this trend, New Delhi must seriously reflect on its policy choices across a wide range of issue areas.

Getting India Back on Track broadly coincides with the 2014 Indian elections to spur a public debate about the program that the next government should pursue in order to return the country to a path of high growth. It convenes some of India''s most accomplished analysts to recommend policies in every major sector of the Indian economy. Taken together, these seventeen focused and concise memoranda offer policymakers and the general public alike a clear blueprint for India''s future.

Contents

Foreword

Ratan N. Tata (Chairman, Tata Trusts)

Introduction

Ashley J. Tellis and Reece Trevor (Carnegie Endowment for International Peace)

1. Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability

Ila Patnaik (National Institute of Public Finance and Policy)

2. Dismantling the Welfare State

Surjit Bhalla (Oxus Investments)

3. Revamping Agriculture and the Public Distribution System

Ashok Gulati (Commission for Agriculture Costs and Prices)

4. Revisiting Manufacturing Policy

Rajiv Kumar (Centre for Policy Research)

5. Generating Employment

Omkar Goswami (Corporate and Economic Research Group)

6. Expanding Education and Skills

Laveesh Bhandari (Indicus Analytics)

7. Confronting Health Challenges

A. K. Shiva Kumar (National Advisory Council)

8. Accelerating Infrastructure Modernization

Rajiv Lall and Ritu Anand (IDFC Limited)

9. Managing Urbanization

Somik Lall and Tara Vishwanath (World Bank)

10. Renovating Land Management

Barun S. Mitra (Liberty Institute) and Madhumita D. Mitra (consultant)

11. Addressing Water Management

Tushaar Shah (International Water Management Institute)