ASA-CRC Series on Statistical Reasoning in Science and Society – serie

Every day, newspapers, magazines, web sites, and social media feature articles about the prevalence of crime. Some of these contradict each other; others use inaccurate statistics. Many people who see wildly diverging statistics conclude that no statistics should be trusted. However, the essence of the statistical discipline is that all statistics should be accompanied by a measure of their accuracy. This book looks at crime statistics from a statistical point of view, and evaluates the different sources of crime statistics with respect to completeness (i.e. missing data), measurement error, and sampling variability. The goal of the book is to promote statistical reasoning about statistics.

With COVID-19 sweeping across the globe with near impunity, it is thwarting governments and health organizations efforts to contain it. Not since the 1918 Spanish Flu have citizens of developed countries experienced such a large-scale disease outbreak that is having devastating health and economic impacts. One reason such outbreaks are not more common has been the success of the public health community, including epidemiologists and biostatisticians, in identifying and then mitigating or eliminating the outbreaks. Monitoring the Health of Populations by Tracking Disease Outbreaks: Saving Humanity from the Next Plague is the story of the application of statistics for disease detection and tracking. The work of public health officials often crucially depends on statistical methods to help discern whether an outbreak may be occurring and, if there is sufficient evidence of an outbreak, then to locate and track it. Statisticians also help collect critical information, and they analyze the resulting data to help investigators zero in on a cause for a disease. With the recent outbreaks of diseases such as swine and bird flu, Ebola, and now COVID-19, the role that epidemiologists and biostatisticians play is more important than ever.Features:· Discusses the crucial roles of statistics in early disease detection.· Outlines the concepts and methods of disease surveillance.· Covers surveillance techniques for communicable diseases like Zika and chronic diseases such as cancer.· Gives real world examples of disease investigations including smallpox, syphilis, anthrax, yellow fever, and microcephaly (and its relationship to the Zika virus).Via the process of identifying an outbreak, finding its cause, and developing a plan to prevent its reoccurrence, this book tells the story of how medical and public health professionals use statistics to help mitigate the effects of disease. This book will help readers understand how statisticians and epidemiologists help combat the spread of such diseases in order to improve public health across the world.

Collecting and analyzing data on unemployment, inflation, and inequality help describe the complex world around us. When published by the government, such data are called official statistics. They are reported by the media, used by politicians to lend weight to their arguments, and by economic commentators to opine about the state of society. Despite such widescale use, explanations about how these measures are constructed are seldom provided for a non-technical reader.This Measuring Society book is a short, accessible guide to six topics: jobs, house prices, inequality, prices for goods and services, poverty, and deprivation. Each relates to concepts we use on a personal level to form an understanding of the society in which we live: We need a job, a place to live, and food to eat.Using data from the United States, we answer three basic questions: why, how, and for whom these statistics have been constructed. We add some context and flavor by discussing the historical background. This book provides the reader with a good grasp of these measures.

What is terrorism? What can we learn and what cannot we learn from terrorism data? What are the perspectives and limitations of the analysis of terrorism data? Over the last decade, scholars have generated unprecedented insight from the statistical analysis of ever-growing databases on terrorism. Yet their findings have not reached the public. This book translates the current state of knowledge on global patterns of terrorism free of unnecessary jargon. Readers will be gradually introduced to statistical reasoning and tools applied to critically analyze terrorism data within a rigorous framework. Debunking Seven Terrorism Myths Using Statistics communicates evidence-based research work on terrorism to a general audience. It describes key statistics that provide an overview of the extent and magnitude of terrorist events perpetrated by actors independent of state governments across the world. The books brings a coherent and rigorous methodological framework to address issues stemming from the statistical analysis of terrorism data and its interpretations.Features Uses statistical reasoning to identify and address seven major misconceptions about terrorism. Discusses the implications of major issues about terrorism data on the interpretation of its statistical analysis. Gradually introduces the complexity of statistical methods to familiarize the non-statistician reader with important statistical concepts to analyze data. Use illustrated examples to help the reader develop a critical approach applied to the quantitative analysis of terrorism data. Includes chapters focusing on major aspects of terrorism: definitional issues, lethality, geography, temporal and spatial patterns, and the predictive ability of models.

What is terrorism? What can we learn and what cannot we learn from terrorism data? What are the perspectives and limitations of the analysis of terrorism data? Over the last decade, scholars have generated unprecedented insight from the statistical analysis of ever-growing databases on terrorism. Yet their findings have not reached the public. This book translates the current state of knowledge on global patterns of terrorism free of unnecessary jargon. Readers will be gradually introduced to statistical reasoning and tools applied to critically analyze terrorism data within a rigorous framework. Debunking Seven Terrorism Myths Using Statistics communicates evidence-based research work on terrorism to a general audience. It describes key statistics that provide an overview of the extent and magnitude of terrorist events perpetrated by actors independent of state governments across the world. The books brings a coherent and rigorous methodological framework to address issues stemming from the statistical analysis of terrorism data and its interpretations.Features Uses statistical reasoning to identify and address seven major misconceptions about terrorism. Discusses the implications of major issues about terrorism data on the interpretation of its statistical analysis. Gradually introduces the complexity of statistical methods to familiarize the non-statistician reader with important statistical concepts to analyze data. Use illustrated examples to help the reader develop a critical approach applied to the quantitative analysis of terrorism data. Includes chapters focusing on major aspects of terrorism: definitional issues, lethality, geography, temporal and spatial patterns, and the predictive ability of models.

Buying the safest car for your family shouldn’t be up for debate.Yet for decades, car safety advocates, manufacturers, and lawmakers in the United States have clashed over whether to make automobiles safer. All sides armed themselves with data in the hopes of winning the great car safety debates. In this way, crash statistics and the analysts who studied them made history. But data were always in the backseat, merely supporting different points of view. That is, until now.With car safety, it’s the value we place on every human life that counts.Automobile safety expert Dr. Norma Faris Hubele delivers a lively discussion of the role data play in protecting you and your family on the road. You’ll gain a greater appreciation for how:A World War I pilot’s near-death experience birthed the U.S. car safety movementData from real car crashes helped create the first vehicle safety standardsA shift toward fuel-efficient cars affected fatality risk in the 1970s–1980s versus nowVehicle size has changed, and the problems that creates for you and others sharing the roadCar safety rating systems, even when limited, empower consumers and motivate manufacturersFederal regulators decide whether to issue a safety recall on your vehicleData’s role is evolving with the advent of driver-assist and self-driving technologiesFurther information can be found on the book's website: www.TheAutoProfessor.com/book [US only].

Buying the safest car for your family shouldn’t be up for debate.Yet for decades, car safety advocates, manufacturers, and lawmakers in the United States have clashed over whether to make automobiles safer. All sides armed themselves with data in the hopes of winning the great car safety debates. In this way, crash statistics and the analysts who studied them made history. But data were always in the backseat, merely supporting different points of view. That is, until now.With car safety, it’s the value we place on every human life that counts.Automobile safety expert Dr. Norma Faris Hubele delivers a lively discussion of the role data play in protecting you and your family on the road. You’ll gain a greater appreciation for how:A World War I pilot’s near-death experience birthed the U.S. car safety movementData from real car crashes helped create the first vehicle safety standardsA shift toward fuel-efficient cars affected fatality risk in the 1970s–1980s versus nowVehicle size has changed, and the problems that creates for you and others sharing the roadCar safety rating systems, even when limited, empower consumers and motivate manufacturersFederal regulators decide whether to issue a safety recall on your vehicleData’s role is evolving with the advent of driver-assist and self-driving technologiesFurther information can be found on the book's website: www.TheAutoProfessor.com/book [US only].

At what point does the sacrifice to our personal information outweigh the public good?If public policymakers had access to our personal and confidential data, they could make more evidence-based, data-informed decisions that could accelerate economic recovery and improve COVID-19 vaccine distribution. However, access to personal data comes at a steep privacy cost for contributors, especially underrepresented groups.Protecting Your Privacy in a Data-Driven World is a practical, nontechnical guide that explains the importance of balancing these competing needs and calls for careful consideration of how data are collected and disseminated by our government and the private sector. Not addressing these concerns can harm the same communities policymakers are trying to protect through data privacy and confidentiality legislation.

At what point does the sacrifice to our personal information outweigh the public good?If public policymakers had access to our personal and confidential data, they could make more evidence-based, data-informed decisions that could accelerate economic recovery and improve COVID-19 vaccine distribution. However, access to personal data comes at a steep privacy cost for contributors, especially underrepresented groups.Protecting Your Privacy in a Data-Driven World is a practical, nontechnical guide that explains the importance of balancing these competing needs and calls for careful consideration of how data are collected and disseminated by our government and the private sector. Not addressing these concerns can harm the same communities policymakers are trying to protect through data privacy and confidentiality legislation.

How do you learn about what’s going on in the world? Did a news headline grab your attention? Did a news story report on recent research? What do you need to know to be a critical consumer of the news you read? If you are looking to start developing your data self-defense and critical news consumption skills, this book is for you! It reflects a long-term collaboration between a statistician and a journalist to shed light on the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics. The only prerequisite for enjoying this book is an interest in developing the skills and insights for better understanding news stories that incorporate quantitative information.Chapters in Statistics Behind the Headlines kick off with a news story headline and a summary of the story itself. The meat of each chapter consists of an exploration of the statistical and journalism concepts needed to understand the data analyzed and reported in the story. The chapters are organized around these sections:What ideas will you encounter in this chapter?What is claimed? Is it appropriate?Who is claiming this?Why is it claimed? What makes this a story worth telling?Is this a good measure of impact?How is the claim supported?What evidence is reported?What is the quality/strength of the evidence?Does the claim seem reasonable?How does this claim fit with what is already known?How much does this matter?Considering the coverageChapters close with connections to the Stats + Stories podcast.

How do you learn about what’s going on in the world? Did a news headline grab your attention? Did a news story report on recent research? What do you need to know to be a critical consumer of the news you read? If you are looking to start developing your data self-defense and critical news consumption skills, this book is for you! It reflects a long-term collaboration between a statistician and a journalist to shed light on the statistics behind the stories and the stories behind the statistics. The only prerequisite for enjoying this book is an interest in developing the skills and insights for better understanding news stories that incorporate quantitative information.Chapters in Statistics Behind the Headlines kick off with a news story headline and a summary of the story itself. The meat of each chapter consists of an exploration of the statistical and journalism concepts needed to understand the data analyzed and reported in the story. The chapters are organized around these sections:What ideas will you encounter in this chapter?What is claimed? Is it appropriate?Who is claiming this?Why is it claimed? What makes this a story worth telling?Is this a good measure of impact?How is the claim supported?What evidence is reported?What is the quality/strength of the evidence?Does the claim seem reasonable?How does this claim fit with what is already known?How much does this matter?Considering the coverageChapters close with connections to the Stats + Stories podcast.

Are you buying a car or smartphone or dishwasher? We bet long-term, trouble-free operation (i.e., high reliability) is among the top three things you look for. Reliability problems can lead to everything from minor inconveniences to human disasters. Ensuring high reliability in designing and building manufactured products is principally an engineering challenge–but statistics plays a key role. Achieving Product Reliability explains in a non-technical manner how statistics is used in modern product reliability assurance.Features: Describes applications of statistics in reliability assurance in design, development, validation, manufacturing, and field tracking. Uses real-life examples to illustrate key statistical concepts such as the Weibull and lognormal distributions, hazard rate, and censored data. Demonstrates the use of graphical tools in such areas as accelerated testing, degradation data modeling, and repairable systems data analysis. Presents opportunities for profitably applying statistics in the era of Big Data and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) utilizing, for example, the instantaneous transmission of large quantities of field data.Whether you are an intellectually curious citizen, student, manager, budding reliability professional, or academician seeking practical applications, Achieving Product Reliability is a great starting point for a big-picture view of statistics in reliability assurance.The authors are world-renowned experts on this topic with extensive experience as company-wide statistical resources for a global conglomerate, consultants to business and government, and researchers of statistical methods for reliability applications.

This book covers statistical consequences of breaches of research integrity such as fabrication and falsification of data, and researcher glitches summarized as questionable research practices. It is unique in that it discusses how unwarranted data manipulation harms research results and that questionable research practices are often caused by researchers’ inadequate mastery of the statistical methods and procedures they use for their data analysis. The author’s solution to prevent problems concerning the trustworthiness of research results, no matter how they originated, is to publish data in publicly available repositories and encourage researchers not trained as statisticians not to overestimate their statistical skills and resort to professional support from statisticians or methodologists.The author discusses some of his experiences concerning mutual trust, fear of repercussions, and the bystander effect as conditions limiting revelation of colleagues’ possible integrity breaches. He explains why people are unable to mimic real data and why data fabrication using statistical models stills falls short of credibility. Confirmatory and exploratory research and the usefulness of preregistration, and the counter-intuitivenature of statistics, are discussed.The author questions the usefulness of statistical advice concerning frequentist hypothesis testing, Bayes-factor use, alternative statistics education, and reduction of situational disturbances like performance pressure, as stand-alone means to reduce questionable research practices when researchers lack experience with statistics.An interview with the author can be found here: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/magazine/overview/former-rector-sijtsma-turn-statistician-fight-fraud-and-sloppiness.

This book covers statistical consequences of breaches of research integrity such as fabrication and falsification of data, and researcher glitches summarized as questionable research practices. It is unique in that it discusses how unwarranted data manipulation harms research results and that questionable research practices are often caused by researchers’ inadequate mastery of the statistical methods and procedures they use for their data analysis. The author’s solution to prevent problems concerning the trustworthiness of research results, no matter how they originated, is to publish data in publicly available repositories and encourage researchers not trained as statisticians not to overestimate their statistical skills and resort to professional support from statisticians or methodologists.The author discusses some of his experiences concerning mutual trust, fear of repercussions, and the bystander effect as conditions limiting revelation of colleagues’ possible integrity breaches. He explains why people are unable to mimic real data and why data fabrication using statistical models stills falls short of credibility. Confirmatory and exploratory research and the usefulness of preregistration, and the counter-intuitivenature of statistics, are discussed.The author questions the usefulness of statistical advice concerning frequentist hypothesis testing, Bayes-factor use, alternative statistics education, and reduction of situational disturbances like performance pressure, as stand-alone means to reduce questionable research practices when researchers lack experience with statistics.An interview with the author can be found here: https://www.tilburguniversity.edu/magazine/overview/former-rector-sijtsma-turn-statistician-fight-fraud-and-sloppiness.

Collecting and analyzing data on unemployment, inflation, and inequality help describe the complex world around us. When published by the government, such data are called official statistics. They are reported by the media, used by politicians to lend weight to their arguments, and by economic commentators to opine about the state of society. Despite such widescale use, explanations about how these measures are constructed are seldom provided for a non-technical reader.This Measuring Society book is a short, accessible guide to six topics: jobs, house prices, inequality, prices for goods and services, poverty, and deprivation. Each relates to concepts we use on a personal level to form an understanding of the society in which we live: We need a job, a place to live, and food to eat.Using data from the United States, we answer three basic questions: why, how, and for whom these statistics have been constructed. We add some context and flavor by discussing the historical background. This book provides the reader with a good grasp of these measures.

Are you buying a car or smartphone or dishwasher? We bet long-term, trouble-free operation (i.e., high reliability) is among the top three things you look for. Reliability problems can lead to everything from minor inconveniences to human disasters. Ensuring high reliability in designing and building manufactured products is principally an engineering challenge–but statistics plays a key role. Achieving Product Reliability explains in a non-technical manner how statistics is used in modern product reliability assurance.Features: Describes applications of statistics in reliability assurance in design, development, validation, manufacturing, and field tracking. Uses real-life examples to illustrate key statistical concepts such as the Weibull and lognormal distributions, hazard rate, and censored data. Demonstrates the use of graphical tools in such areas as accelerated testing, degradation data modeling, and repairable systems data analysis. Presents opportunities for profitably applying statistics in the era of Big Data and Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) utilizing, for example, the instantaneous transmission of large quantities of field data.Whether you are an intellectually curious citizen, student, manager, budding reliability professional, or academician seeking practical applications, Achieving Product Reliability is a great starting point for a big-picture view of statistics in reliability assurance.The authors are world-renowned experts on this topic with extensive experience as company-wide statistical resources for a global conglomerate, consultants to business and government, and researchers of statistical methods for reliability applications.

Statistics and Health Care Fraud: How to Save Billions helps the public to become more informed citizens through discussions of real world health care examples and fraud assessment applications. The author presents statistical and analytical methods used in health care fraud audits without requiring any mathematical background. The public suffers from health care overpayments either directly as patients or indirectly as taxpayers, and fraud analytics provides ways to handle the large size and complexity of these claims. The book starts with a brief overview of global healthcare systems such as U.S. Medicare. This is followed by a discussion of medical overpayments and assessment initiatives using a variety of real world examples. The book covers subjects as:• Description and visualization of medical claims data• Prediction of fraudulent transactions• Detection of excessive billings• Revealing new fraud patterns• Challenges and opportunities with health care fraud analyticsDr. Tahir Ekin is the Brandon Dee Roberts Associate Professor of Quantitative Methods in McCoy College of Business, Texas State University. His previous work experience includes a working as a statistician on health care fraud detection. His scholarly work on health care fraud has been published in a variety of academic journals including International Statistical Review, The American Statistician, and Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. He is a recipient of the Texas State University 2018 Presidential Distinction Award in Scholar Activities and the ASA/NISS y-Bis 2016 Best Paper Awards. He has developed and taught courses in the areas of business statistics, optimization, data mining and analytics. Dr. Ekin also serves as Vice President of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics.

Statistics and Health Care Fraud: How to Save Billions helps the public to become more informed citizens through discussions of real world health care examples and fraud assessment applications. The author presents statistical and analytical methods used in health care fraud audits without requiring any mathematical background. The public suffers from health care overpayments either directly as patients or indirectly as taxpayers, and fraud analytics provides ways to handle the large size and complexity of these claims. The book starts with a brief overview of global healthcare systems such as U.S. Medicare. This is followed by a discussion of medical overpayments and assessment initiatives using a variety of real world examples. The book covers subjects as:• Description and visualization of medical claims data• Prediction of fraudulent transactions• Detection of excessive billings• Revealing new fraud patterns• Challenges and opportunities with health care fraud analyticsDr. Tahir Ekin is the Brandon Dee Roberts Associate Professor of Quantitative Methods in McCoy College of Business, Texas State University. His previous work experience includes a working as a statistician on health care fraud detection. His scholarly work on health care fraud has been published in a variety of academic journals including International Statistical Review, The American Statistician, and Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. He is a recipient of the Texas State University 2018 Presidential Distinction Award in Scholar Activities and the ASA/NISS y-Bis 2016 Best Paper Awards. He has developed and taught courses in the areas of business statistics, optimization, data mining and analytics. Dr. Ekin also serves as Vice President of the International Society for Business and Industrial Statistics.

Every day, newspapers, magazines, web sites, and social media feature articles about the prevalence of crime. Some of these contradict each other; others use inaccurate statistics. Many people who see wildly diverging statistics conclude that no statistics should be trusted. However, the essence of the statistical discipline is that all statistics should be accompanied by a measure of their accuracy. This book looks at crime statistics from a statistical point of view, and evaluates the different sources of crime statistics with respect to completeness (i.e. missing data), measurement error, and sampling variability. The goal of the book is to promote statistical reasoning about statistics.

Visualizing Baseball provides a visual exploration of the game of baseball. Graphical displays are used to show how measures of performance, at the team level and the individual level, have changed over the history of baseball. Graphs of career trajectories are helpful for understanding the rise and fall of individual performances of hitters and pitchers over time. One can measure the contribution of plays by the notion of runs expectancy. Graphs of runs expectancy are useful for understanding the importance of the game situation defined by the runners on base and number of outs. Also the runs measure can be used to quantify hitter and pitch counts and the win probabilities can be used to define the exciting plays during a baseball game. Special graphs are used to describe pitch data from the PitchFX system and batted ball data from the Statcast system. One can explore patterns of streaky performance and clutch play by the use of graphs, and special plots are used to predict final season batting averages based on data from the middle of the season.This book was written for several types of readers. Many baseball fans should be interested in the topics of the chapters, especially those who are interested in learning more about the quantitative side of baseball. Many statistical ideas are illustrated and so the graphs and accompanying insights can help in promoting statistical literacy at many levels. From a practitioner’s perspective, the chapters offer many illustrations of the use of a modern graphics system and R scripts are available on an accompanying website to reproduce and potentially improve the graphs in this book.

This is the age of data. There are more innovations and more opportunities for interesting work with data than ever before, but there is also an overwhelming amount of quantitative information being published every day. Data visualisation has become big business, because communication is the difference between success and failure, no matter how clever the analysis may have been. The ability to visualize data is now a skill in demand across business, government, NGOs and academia. Data Visualization: Charts, Maps, and Interactive Graphics gives an overview of a wide range of techniques and challenges, while staying accessible to anyone interested in working with and understanding data.Features: Focusses on concepts and ways of thinking about data rather than algebra or computer code.Features 17 short chapters that can be read in one sitting.Includes chapters on big data, statistical and machine learning models, visual perception, high-dimensional data, and maps and geographic data.Contains more than 125 visualizations, most created by the author.Supported by a website with all code for creating the visualizations, further reading, datasets and practical advice on crafting the images.Whether you are a student considering a career in data science, an analyst who wants to learn more about visualization, or the manager of a team working with data, this book will introduce you to a broad range of data visualization methods.Cover image: Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Copyright © Jill Pelto (jillpelto.com).

Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgements and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications.Key Features: This book demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. It examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. It combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. It provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history. It is written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.

Forces shaping human history are complex, but the course of history is undeniably changed on many occasions by conscious acts. These may be premeditated or responsive, calmly calculated or performed under great pressure. They may also be successful or catastrophic, but how are historians to make such judgements and appeal to evidence in support of their conclusions? Further, and crucially, how exactly are we to distinguish probable unrealized alternatives from improbable ones? This book describes some of the modern statistical techniques that can begin to answer this question, as well as some of the difficulties in doing so. Using simple, well-quantified cases drawn from military history, we claim that statistics can now help us to navigate the near-truths, the envelope around the events with which any meaningful historical analysis must deal, and to quantify the basis of such analysis. Quantifying Counterfactual Military History is intended for a general audience who are interested in learning more about statistical methods both in military history and for wider applications.Key Features: This book demonstrates how modern statistical techniques can measure the impact of counterfactual decisions. It examines the importance of counterfactual reasoning for both modern scholars and historical actors. It combines historical narrative, mathematical precision and data to create a straightforward presentation of both factual and counterfactual military history. It provides an original contribution to the debate over the validity and rigour of works of counterfactual history. It is written in a manner accessible to readers who have no formal training in History or Statistics.

Twenty-four million people wager nearly $3 billion on college basketball pools each year, but few are aware that winning strategies have been developed by researchers at Harvard, Yale, and other universities over the past two decades. Bad advice from media sources and even our own psychological inclinations are often a bigger obstacle to winning than our pool opponents. Profit opportunities are missed and most brackets submitted to pools don’t have a breakeven chance to win money before the tournament begins.Improving Your NCAA® Bracket with Statistics is both an easy-to-use tip sheet to improve your winning odds and an intellectual history of how statistical reasoning has been applied to the bracket pool using standard and innovative methods. It covers bracket improvement methods ranging from those that require only the information in the seeded bracket to sophisticated estimation techniques available via online simulations. Included are: Prominently displayed bracket improvement tips based on the published research A history of the origins of the bracket pool A history of bracket improvement methods and their results in play Historical sketches and background information on the mathematical and statistical methods that have been used in bracket analysis A source list of good bracket pool advice available each year that seeks to be comprehensive Warnings about common bad advice that will hurt your chancesTom Adams’ work presenting bracket improvement methods has been featured in the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, and SmartMoney magazine.

Twenty-four million people wager nearly $3 billion on college basketball pools each year, but few are aware that winning strategies have been developed by researchers at Harvard, Yale, and other universities over the past two decades. Bad advice from media sources and even our own psychological inclinations are often a bigger obstacle to winning than our pool opponents. Profit opportunities are missed and most brackets submitted to pools don’t have a breakeven chance to win money before the tournament begins.Improving Your NCAA® Bracket with Statistics is both an easy-to-use tip sheet to improve your winning odds and an intellectual history of how statistical reasoning has been applied to the bracket pool using standard and innovative methods. It covers bracket improvement methods ranging from those that require only the information in the seeded bracket to sophisticated estimation techniques available via online simulations. Included are: Prominently displayed bracket improvement tips based on the published research A history of the origins of the bracket pool A history of bracket improvement methods and their results in play Historical sketches and background information on the mathematical and statistical methods that have been used in bracket analysis A source list of good bracket pool advice available each year that seeks to be comprehensive Warnings about common bad advice that will hurt your chancesTom Adams’ work presenting bracket improvement methods has been featured in the New York Times, Sports Illustrated, and SmartMoney magazine.

This is the age of data. There are more innovations and more opportunities for interesting work with data than ever before, but there is also an overwhelming amount of quantitative information being published every day. Data visualisation has become big business, because communication is the difference between success and failure, no matter how clever the analysis may have been. The ability to visualize data is now a skill in demand across business, government, NGOs and academia. Data Visualization: Charts, Maps, and Interactive Graphics gives an overview of a wide range of techniques and challenges, while staying accessible to anyone interested in working with and understanding data.Features: Focusses on concepts and ways of thinking about data rather than algebra or computer code.Features 17 short chapters that can be read in one sitting.Includes chapters on big data, statistical and machine learning models, visual perception, high-dimensional data, and maps and geographic data.Contains more than 125 visualizations, most created by the author.Supported by a website with all code for creating the visualizations, further reading, datasets and practical advice on crafting the images.Whether you are a student considering a career in data science, an analyst who wants to learn more about visualization, or the manager of a team working with data, this book will introduce you to a broad range of data visualization methods.Cover image: Landscape of Change uses data about sea level rise, glacier volume decline, increasing global temperatures, and the increasing use of fossil fuels. These data lines compose a landscape shaped by the changing climate, a world in which we are now living. Copyright © Jill Pelto (jillpelto.com).

We live in a world that is not quite "right." The central tenet of statistical inquiry is that Observation = Truth + Error because even the most careful of scientific investigations have always been bedeviled by uncertainty. Our attempts to measure things are plagued with small errors. Our attempts to understand our world are blocked by blunders. And, unfortunately, in some cases, people have been known to lie.In this long-awaited follow-up to his well-regarded bestseller, The Lady Tasting Tea, David Salsburg opens a door to the amazing widespread use of statistical methods by looking at historical examples of errors, blunders and lies from areas as diverse as archeology, law, economics, medicine, psychology, sociology, Biblical studies, history, and war-time espionage. In doing so, he shows how, upon closer statistical investigation, errors and blunders often lead to useful information. And how statistical methods have been used to uncover falsified data. Beginning with Edmund Halley’s examination of the Transit of Venus and ending with a discussion of how many tanks Rommel had during the Second World War, the author invites the reader to come along on this easily accessible and fascinating journey of how to identify the nature of errors, minimize the effects of blunders, and figure out who the liars are.

With COVID-19 sweeping across the globe with near impunity, it is thwarting governments and health organizations efforts to contain it. Not since the 1918 Spanish Flu have citizens of developed countries experienced such a large-scale disease outbreak that is having devastating health and economic impacts. One reason such outbreaks are not more common has been the success of the public health community, including epidemiologists and biostatisticians, in identifying and then mitigating or eliminating the outbreaks. Monitoring the Health of Populations by Tracking Disease Outbreaks: Saving Humanity from the Next Plague is the story of the application of statistics for disease detection and tracking. The work of public health officials often crucially depends on statistical methods to help discern whether an outbreak may be occurring and, if there is sufficient evidence of an outbreak, then to locate and track it. Statisticians also help collect critical information, and they analyze the resulting data to help investigators zero in on a cause for a disease. With the recent outbreaks of diseases such as swine and bird flu, Ebola, and now COVID-19, the role that epidemiologists and biostatisticians play is more important than ever.Features:· Discusses the crucial roles of statistics in early disease detection.· Outlines the concepts and methods of disease surveillance.· Covers surveillance techniques for communicable diseases like Zika and chronic diseases such as cancer.· Gives real world examples of disease investigations including smallpox, syphilis, anthrax, yellow fever, and microcephaly (and its relationship to the Zika virus).Via the process of identifying an outbreak, finding its cause, and developing a plan to prevent its reoccurrence, this book tells the story of how medical and public health professionals use statistics to help mitigate the effects of disease. This book will help readers understand how statisticians and epidemiologists help combat the spread of such diseases in order to improve public health across the world.

Visualizing Baseball provides a visual exploration of the game of baseball. Graphical displays are used to show how measures of performance, at the team level and the individual level, have changed over the history of baseball. Graphs of career trajectories are helpful for understanding the rise and fall of individual performances of hitters and pitchers over time. One can measure the contribution of plays by the notion of runs expectancy. Graphs of runs expectancy are useful for understanding the importance of the game situation defined by the runners on base and number of outs. Also the runs measure can be used to quantify hitter and pitch counts and the win probabilities can be used to define the exciting plays during a baseball game. Special graphs are used to describe pitch data from the PitchFX system and batted ball data from the Statcast system. One can explore patterns of streaky performance and clutch play by the use of graphs, and special plots are used to predict final season batting averages based on data from the middle of the season.This book was written for several types of readers. Many baseball fans should be interested in the topics of the chapters, especially those who are interested in learning more about the quantitative side of baseball. Many statistical ideas are illustrated and so the graphs and accompanying insights can help in promoting statistical literacy at many levels. From a practitioner’s perspective, the chapters offer many illustrations of the use of a modern graphics system and R scripts are available on an accompanying website to reproduce and potentially improve the graphs in this book.