European Studies of Population – serie

Many industrialized countries are facing large problems with their public-pension systems in the 21st century. An unfavourable age distribution, with lower population shares in working ages and increasing shares and numbers of elderly persons in the future will lead, under current pension systems, to a drop in contributions and at the same time to sharply rising amounts of benefits paid. This book analyzes the impact of dynamics in age structure and marital-status composition on future public-pension expenditures in 12 industrialized countries. It shows that there is no demographic response to population ageing at the horizon 2030. Neither an increase in fertility nor an inflow of migrants can rejuvenate national populations, unless fertility and/or migration reach unrealistically high levels. The overall conclusion of this book is that, therefore, demographic variables are of limited help towards relieving the burden of future public-pension expenditures; substantial reductions of the public-pension burden have to be sought in socio-economic measures, and not in adjusting demographic conditions.The book includes various demographic and pension scenarios for pension costs in the coming decades for Austria, Canada, the Czech and Slovak Republics, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and Sweden. Not only old-age pensions, but also disability and survivor pensions have been investigated. Variant projections were calculated for changes in demographic, labour-force, and pension-system variables. In addition, separate case-studies for three countries deal with: a pension system in Austria in which benefits depend on the number of children ever born; the impact of household dynamics on social security in the Netherlands, not just marriage and marriage dissolution; and the consequences of economic growth for public pensions in Sweden.

Containing seven articles, this volume reflects a selection of current research issues on population and family in the Low Countries. With the permission of the Dutch and Belgian Governments, the national reports submitted to the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (Cairo) are also included. They provide information on the official views of the Dutch and Belgian Governments on demographic trends and population policy issues.

The world's population will soon reach 6 billion and is increasing at approximately 90 million per annum. This is the largest absolute level of population growth ever recorded. The UN expects that the world population will probably double once again before stabilizing at a stationary level. Developing countries account for 90 per cent of present and future population growth. This population increase in many developing countries seriously hampers their attempts to overcome their backwardness, to substantially improve their quality of life, and to achieve a sustainable exploitation of renewable and non-renewable resources. Simultaneously, non-sustainable consumption and production patterns in industrial nations, and among wealthy citizens in developing countries, place additional burdens on the planet's natural resources and ecosystems. In order to consider such problems and to elaborate policy guidelines, the UN staged its International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Cairo, Egypt, September 5-13, 1994. This monograph deals with the background to the ICPD, its preparation, proceedings, and content.It also evaluates the results and recommendations of ICPD by comparing the ICPD Action Programme with current scientific literature. The ICPD dealt with the key issues concerning the interrelations between population, development and environment, and their causes. Despite suggestions in the media, driven by the distortions of religious fundamentalists, it was not limited to such marginal issues as abortion, promiscuity and homosexuality. The ICPD Action Programme forms an impressive charter with a broad range of relevant policy recommendations. Nevertheless, compared to most of the current scientific literature, the ICPD seems to underestimate the seriousness and urgency of the issues at stake.

This volume includes seven contributions on a variety of current demographic issues, most of them treated from an international and/or European perspective. The idea behind this book series is to introduce scientific work on population issues in the Low Countries, the Netherlands and Flanders/Belgium, to an international audience. Subjects treated in this volume are: ageing and the socio-medical infrastructure; population and sustainable development, population policy and fundamental rights in relation to procreation; public opinion on population issues; optimum population and supportive environment; theories and demographic research; and population education and demographic software.

This text is about the transition to modernity of population forecasting. In many countries interest in the future course of population was kindled by debates on the population problem since the turn of the 19th century. The debates were alternately caused by fear of the economic consequences of over-population, by anxiety regarding the strategic demographic aspects of population decline, the decline of the national elite, or by the menace of imminent race suicide. Because population debates tended to be based on emotion rather than "objective" arguments, some economists and statisticians felt the need for a better understanding of population dynamics and its effect on the development of future population. Their pursuit of objectivity in population debates resulted in the development of a forecasting methodology based on the findings of life table theory and analytical demography. The innovation of forecasting methodology was greatly helped by improved public statistics, the published data of population censuses and ever-extending time series of demographic rates.In the 1930s the innovation and propagation of knowledge of modern forecasting methodology received a new stimulus when it became clear that the new methodology could easily be applied in preliminary town planning research and urban and regional policy-making. This book recounts the history of the origin and establishment of modern population forecasting methodology and the resistance the new methodology met with. It demonstrates, using George Herbert Mead's philosophy of time, that the emergence of modern population forecasting resulted in a drastic change of the societal position of the forecaster, the consequences of which still resound today. The book uncovers contributions to the description and theory of the demographic transition in the publications of the early innovators of population forecasting. It looks at the pioneering position of inter-war population forecasting in the Netherlands and clarifies why the innovative endeavours of Dutch population forecasters of that period nevertheless remained hidden in international histories.This book is aimed at scientists, researchers and students in demography and applied demography, statistics, economy, social geography and urban and regional planning and science studies.

A selection of presentations from the 1999 European Population Conference, which convened in The Hague from 30 August to 3 September on behalf of the European Association for Population Studies (IUSSP), The Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), Statistics Netherlands (SN), and The Netherlands Demographic Society (NVD). Europe is facing major and challenging demographic issues that, to a large extent, will shape its future. These challenges formed the basis for On the threshold of the third millennium, selecting special underlyin g themes for the plenary sessions at the conference. Four population experts were invited to present their views. Written versions of their presentations form the contents of this book. Dirk van de Kaa describes Europe and its population. Henri Leridon addresses the question "How do Europeans plan their families?". Giuseppe Gesano considers the relationship between demographic trends and the labour market, and Marek Ososki writes about Europe's modern international migration history.

The changing demographic landscape which Europe is facing today and in the next decades reflects the past. These changes constitute important challenges to European populations and societies. Shifts in fertility and family formation, in health, morbidity and mortality, in internal and international migration as well as changes in age structures, in households, in labour forces, and in population growth and decline, will influence the living conditions and well-being of Europe's population directly or indirectly. The demographic challenge also concerns the environment, local, regional and national developments, education, production and consumption patterns, economic competitiveness, social security, housing, employment and transport, and health and social care provisions. These issues, their mechanisms, determinants and consequences also challenge the scientific study of population. As a major forum and 'market place' for scientific demographic debate, the 1999 European Population Conference (EPC99) was organized to take up this challenge. On the threshold of the third millennium, European populations are united in diversity and face major demographic issues.

Future demographic developments in Europe will be caused by the specific economic, social and cultural context, and will, in turn, have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To the extent that demographic trends differ across countries, separate countries may face different social and economic problems. As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic developments at an early stage. Within the European context, the question can be raised whether the socioeconomic and cultural dimensions of society are dominated by convergent or divergent forces, and what the consequences are of these assumed convergent or divergent tendencies for long-term future demographic developments in the countries of Europe. Since there is no unambiguous answer to this question, this book describes two alternative scenarios for Europe's future population. In the Uniformity scenario, convergent forces are dominant. This will eventually lead to a situation where only marginal economic and cultural differences exist across Europe.Trends in fertility and mortality will converge up to the year 2050, although over time patterns may differ across countries as a result of their different initial states. In contrast to the Uniformity scenario, a Diversity scenario is constructed where cultural, economic and demographic characteristics remain significantly different across countries. This book is the result of close collaboration between researchers from the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI) and Statistics Netherlands (SN). Although the project was a joint effort by all researchers involved, the book has assumed the form of an edited volume, with separate chapters by small groups of authors. The authors are, of course, responsible for writing their own contributions, but they were often involved to a certain extent in the realisation of some of the other chapters as well.

On the threshold of a new century the organisers of the European Population Conference 1999 (EPC99) in The Hague decided not only to highlight the population trends that Europe is facing today but also the changes in the 21 st century that are set to shape the future of Europe. They decided to focus on comparative issues, both in time and in space. In order to trace the degree of homogeneity and heterogeneity of European populations over time, converging and diverging population trends that are specific to contemporary and future Europe need to be explored. This is reflected in EPC99's motto: 'European Populations on the threshold of the new millennium; unity in diversity. ' Future demographic developments will be caused by specific economic, social and cultural conditions in Europe, and will, in turn, have a major influence on future economic and social conditions. To the extent that demographic trends differ across countries, separate countries may face different social and economic problems. As demographic trends tend to have long-lasting effects, it is important to assess the possible consequences of future demographic developments at an early stage. On the occasion of EPC99 , two of the organisers, Statistics Netherlands (SN) and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute (NIDI), decided to produce a set of two population scenarios, showing the possible impact of converging and diverging population trends in the next century.

The aim of this text is to examine changes in the start of the family formation process. Rather than giving a overview of demographic changes in many countries, a comparison of differences in changes in family formation and fertility behaviour between Belgium and The Netherlands is interesting for various reasons. First, even though the economic and cultural differences between these countries are relatively small there is one important difference: Belgium is predominantly Catholic, whereas The Netherlands has about equal proportions of Catholics and Protestants. Second, if the Second Demographic Transition implies that there is one common pattern of change in different European countries and that differences across countries are due to the fact that countries are in a different stage of the transition process, and if it is assumed that the transition process started earlier in Protestant countries than in Catholic countries, one would expect The Netherlands to be in a further stage of the transition process than Belgium.Thus an in-depth comparison of changes in family formation and fertility behaviour between both countries may give us more insight in the question of whether there is one common transition process. The comparison of fertility and family survey-data in both countries brings us to the core question of whether there is one common explanation for differences between countries in various types of fertility and family behaviour under consideration, namely fertility regulation, the choice of living arrangement after leaving the parental home, and the labour force participation of mothers.

Information on future mortality trends is essential for population forecasts, public health policy, actuarial studies, and many other purposes. Realizing the importance of such needs, this volume contains contributions to the theory and practice of forecasting mortality in the relatively favourable circumstances in developed countries of Western Europe. In this context techniques from mathematical statistics and econometrics can provide useful descriptions of past mortality. The naive forecast obtained by extrapolating a fitted model may give as good a forecast as any but forecasting by extrapolation requires careful justification since it assumes the prolongation of historical conditions. On the other hand, whilst it is generally accepted that scientific and other advances will continue to impact on mortality, perhaps dramatically so, it is impossible to quantify more than the outline of future consequences with a strong degree of confidence.The decision to modify an extrapolation of a model fitted to historical data (or conversely choosing not to modify it) in order to obtain a forecast is therefore strongly influenced by subjective and judgmental elements, with the quality of the latter dependent on demographic, epidemiological and indeed perhaps more general considerations. The thread running through the book reflects therefore the necessity of integrating demographic, epidemiological, and statistical factors to obtain an improvement in the prediction of mortality.

The first aim of this title is to describe the similarities and differences in the timing and kind of transition among the post-war cohorts in Austria, Britain, Flanders (Belgium), France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, and Spain. A comparative description allows consideration of whether trends across Europe are converging or whether inter-country differences persist. A second aim of this volume is to bring together the results of individual-level studies from these ten European countries, analyzing the impact of selected determinants on the transition to adulthood. The focus in particular is on those factors that gave rise to the Second Demographic Transition. Almost all studies make use of the Fertility and Family Survey data, a survey co-ordinated in the 1990s by the Population Activities Unit of the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations. Comparing the results of these country-specific analyses sheds an intriguing light on the various ways in which these determinants operate in different economic and cultural contexts.

Guillaume Wunsch, Michel Mouchart, Josianne Duchene This book is an outcome of the activities of the Working Group on Health, Morbidity, and Mortality Differentials of the European Association for Population Studies, which was chaired for some years by one of the present editors (G. Wunsch). In collaboration with the Institute of Statistics and the Institute of Demography of the University of Louvain, this Working Group held a workshop in Louvain-Ia-Neuve a few years ago on the use of life tables in Europe, taking into account problems of data collection, methods, and models. Some of the participants in the workshop were then invited by the present editors to improve, develop, or in some cases thoroughly modify their papers in order to transform them into chapters of a book on life tables. Though life tables are one of the oldest tools in demography, and every textbook on demographic methods deals with the topic of life table construction, few books have dealt with the subject in depth. It is the hope of the editors that the present volume will fulfill to some extent this need. Though primarily written by and for demographers, this book will also be of use to actuaries working in life insurance, and to epidemiologists dealing with morbidity and cause of death. Furthermore, a topic such as competing risks theory should also be of interest to statisticians.

Marriage and social inequality are closely interrelated. Marriage is dependent on the structure of marriage markets, and marriage patterns have consequences for social inequality. This book demonstrates that in most modern societies the educa­ tional system has become an increasingly important marriage market, particularly for those who are highly qualified. Educational expansion in general and the rising educational participation of women in particular unintentionally have increased the rate of "assortative meeting" and assortative mating across birth cohorts. Rising educational homogamy means that social inequality is further enhanced through marriage because better (and worse) educated single men and women pool their economic and sociocultural advantages (and disadvantages) within couples. In this book we study the changing role of the educational system as a marriage market in modern societies from a cross-national comparative perspective. Using life-history data from a broad range of industrialized countries and longitudinal statistical models, we analyze the process of spouse selection in the life courses of single men and women, step by step. The countries included in this book vary widely in important characteristics such as demographic behavior and institutional characteristics. The life course approach explicitly recognizes the dynamic nature of partner decisions, the importance of educational roles and institutional circum­ stances as young men and women move through their life paths, and the cumulation of advantages and disadvantages experienced by individuals.

Marriage and social inequality are closely interrelated. Marriage is dependent on the structure of marriage markets, and marriage patterns have consequences for social inequality. This book demonstrates that in most modern societies the educa­ tional system has become an increasingly important marriage market, particularly for those who are highly qualified. Educational expansion in general and the rising educational participation of women in particular unintentionally have increased the rate of "assortative meeting" and assortative mating across birth cohorts. Rising educational homogamy means that social inequality is further enhanced through marriage because better (and worse) educated single men and women pool their economic and sociocultural advantages (and disadvantages) within couples. In this book we study the changing role of the educational system as a marriage market in modern societies from a cross-national comparative perspective. Using life-history data from a broad range of industrialized countries and longitudinal statistical models, we analyze the process of spouse selection in the life courses of single men and women, step by step. The countries included in this book vary widely in important characteristics such as demographic behavior and institutional characteristics. The life course approach explicitly recognizes the dynamic nature of partner decisions, the importance of educational roles and institutional circum­ stances as young men and women move through their life paths, and the cumulation of advantages and disadvantages experienced by individuals.

"This is a tour de force in cohort fertility analysis, a deep and powerful piece of work. It is a striking demonstration of the force of really detailed empirical analysis of excellent and comprehensive data, with the data looked at from every angle and judiciously extrapolated into the future. It represents a major contribution to our understanding of contemporary low fertility in Europe and other developed nations..." Thomas K. Burch, University of Victoria, BC, Canada

New perspectives in interpreting contemporary family and reproductive - haviour of Mediterranean Europe 1. THE NEW GEOGRAPHY OF FERTILITY AND THE FAMILY IN EUROPE The countries of southern Europe have begun to reduce conjugal fertility at a later date compared to most other nations in the west. This has been - plained by means of the category of delay: the backwardness of the pr- esses of accumulation and economic development being seen as the cause of the maintaining of the reproductive models of the past. Moreover, the inf- ence of the Catholic Church in Italy, Spain and Portugal is supposed to have delayed the processes of secularisation, rendering difficult the changes in mentality necessary for assuming modern patterns of reproductive behaviour not only for fertility, but also for the variables which are strictly linked to it, such as sexuality, contraception and abortion (Livi Bacci, 1977; Lesthaeghe and Wilson, 1986). 1. 1. The trends of very low fertility Now the panorama is very different. Since the mid-seventies, southern Europe has been washed by the tide of a lowest-low fertility (i. e. , TFR under 1. 5 for several a prolonged period, Billari et al. , 2003), which in some areas 1 has reached and maintained scarcely imaginable levels for years on end. Conversely, other areas of Europe, where fertility started to fall many d- ades earlier than in the regions of the sourth, have recovered or maintained considerably higher levels of fertility, often close to replacement level.

One of the most important demographic issues of our time is the increasing age of women at motherhood. This happens in the northern social democratic states Sweden and Norway, in the catholic countries Italy, Spain and Ireland, in the West European countries Netherlands and Germany, in the former socialist transition countries Czech Republic and East Germany, and in the liberal democracy of the United States. The postponement of maternity and the related issue of declining fertility rates are of major interest to policy makers and have provoked much scientific research. This book examines various economic aspects of the role of women’s education in the postponement of maternity in these ten industrialized countries. The chapters in this book each empirically investigate one of these countries using individual or household survey data and are in particular interested in the increasing age at motherhood with the investment in education of the mother. In search of socio-economic explanations for this relationship each chapter investigates a specific related research question. This results in a book that covers a wide range of topics on the economics of fertility decisions, such as career planning motives of women, consumption smoothing motives of households and the role of institutions.

This two-volume work explores social cohesion and the demographic challenges of low birth rates and population aging. Authors approach the topic from the perspective of citizens and policymakers, analyzing attitudes from 14 European countries on demographic trends and expectations towards private networks and public policies. Volume 2 focuses on family and family change, value of children, fertility intentions, and views on work-family balance.

European countries, including the DIALOG countries, have faced a major de- graphic change and transition in the last thirty years. They are experiencing lo- term downward trends in fertility, leading to demographic ageing. Fertility rates are now below replacement level in nearly all countries. As a result, natural p- ulation growth rates are starting to decline, or population sizes are falling o- right. At the same time, the proportion of elderly dependants continues to grow while the working-age population declines in absolute and relative terms (see Kontula and Miettinen 2005). Moreover, net immigration, which potentially could offset declines in working-age population, remains generally low in most European countries (Grant et al. 2004). There are a great number of societal problems that arise from this demographic transition. The International Monetary Fund (2004) argues that the impact of - coming demographic changes on economical growth could be substantial. The h- toric association between demographicand macro-economicvariablessuggests that the projected increase in elderly dependency ratios and the projected decline in the share of the working-age population could result in slower per capita GDP growth, and lower saving and investment (IMF 2004, 147). For example, the estimates s- gest that demographic change could reduce annual real per capita GDP growth in 1 1 advanced countries by an average of / % point by 2050, i. e. , growth would be / % 2 2 point lower than if the demographic structure had remained the same as in 2000 (IMF 2004, 147).

This book provides a demographic profile of the Syrian diaspora into Europe and identifies the issue of forced migration as a separate and increasingly salient topic within the more general field of migration research.  It describes the progressive increase in numbers of Syrian refugees in different European countries during recent years and gives a demographic profile of the Syrian refugee population.  The book also compares and synthesizes the demographic profiles presented, to show how the population of Syrian refugees differs from country to county in terms of age structure, sex ratio, family status, educational attainment and other social and economic characteristics. By providing a solid empirical portrait based on national and international statistics, this book will be a great resource to students, academics in migration and refugee studies as well as social scientists and policy-makers in European countries.

This book provides a demographic profile of the Syrian diaspora into Europe and identifies the issue of forced migration as a separate and increasingly salient topic within the more general field of migration research.

This open access book collects the major discussions in divorce research in Europe. Do cohabitation breakups influence divorce trends or is there a renewed stability on the partner market?In terms of divorce risks, the book contains new insights on Eastern European countries.

This open access book collects the major discussions in divorce research in Europe. Do cohabitation breakups influence divorce trends or is there a renewed stability on the partner market?In terms of divorce risks, the book contains new insights on Eastern European countries.

This book offers a unique comparative assessment of the evolution of immigration detention systems in European Union member states since the onset of the “refugee crisis.” By applying an analytical framework premised on international human rights law in assessing domestic detention regimes, the book reveals the extent to which EU legislation has led to the adoption of laws and practices that may disregard fundamental rights and standards. While emphasizing policies and laws adopted in response to the “refugee crisis,” the volume also shows how these policies have evolved—and in many cases grown more restrictive—even as the “crisis” has begun to recede from the borders of many European countries. To sharpen awareness of contrasting developments across the region, the book’s country chapters are organised into geographic sections that reveal how variations in migration pressures have in some cases resulted in contrasting detention practices even as the EU directives have sought to harmonise immigration laws. A critical focus of the book are the evolving domestic norms related to grounds for detention, length of detention, non-custodial "alternatives to detention," the treatment of children, and conditions of detention. With its systematic and comparative assessment of immigration detention regimes across the EU, the book will be helpful for both academics and practitioners who seek a comprehensive guide to the evolution of one of today’s more important human rights dilemmas—states’ efforts to control global migration.

This book offers a unique comparative assessment of the evolution of immigration detention systems in European Union member states since the onset of the “refugee crisis.” By applying an analytical framework premised on international human rights law in assessing domestic detention regimes, the book reveals the extent to which EU legislation has led to the adoption of laws and practices that may disregard fundamental rights and standards. While emphasizing policies and laws adopted in response to the “refugee crisis,” the volume also shows how these policies have evolved—and in many cases grown more restrictive—even as the “crisis” has begun to recede from the borders of many European countries. To sharpen awareness of contrasting developments across the region, the book’s country chapters are organised into geographic sections that reveal how variations in migration pressures have in some cases resulted in contrasting detention practices even as the EU directives have sought to harmonise immigration laws. A critical focus of the book are the evolving domestic norms related to grounds for detention, length of detention, non-custodial "alternatives to detention," the treatment of children, and conditions of detention. With its systematic and comparative assessment of immigration detention regimes across the EU, the book will be helpful for both academics and practitioners who seek a comprehensive guide to the evolution of one of today’s more important human rights dilemmas—states’ efforts to control global migration.

This open access book focuses on family diversity from a legal, demographical and sociological perspective. The book shows the paths leading to the adoption of laws while demographic analyses concentrate on the link between registration of same-sex marriages and same-sex parenting with a detailed focus on Spain.

This open access book focuses on family diversity from a legal, demographical and sociological perspective. The book shows the paths leading to the adoption of laws while demographic analyses concentrate on the link between registration of same-sex marriages and same-sex parenting with a detailed focus on Spain.

This open access book provides an overview of the ever-growing phenomenon of children in shared physical custody thereby providing legal, psychological, family sociological and demographical insights. It describes how, despite the long evolution of broken families, only the last decade has seen a radical shift in custody arrangements for children in divorced families and the gender revolution in parenting which is taking place. The chapters have a national or cross-national perspective and address topics like prevalence and types of shared physical custody, legal frames regulating custody arrangements, stability and changes in arrangements across the life course of children, socio‐economic, psychological, social well-being of various family members involved in different custody arrangements. With the book being an interdisciplinary collaboration, it is interesting read for social scientists in demography, sociology, psychology, law and policy makers with an interest family studies and custody arrangements.