Modeling Dynamic Systems - Böcker

When managers and ecologists need to make decisions about the environment, they use models to simulate the dynamic systems that interest them. All management decisions affect certain landscapes over time, and those landscapes are composed of intricate webs of dynamic processes that need to be considered in relation to each other. With widespread use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), there is a growing need for complex models corporating an increasing amount of data. The open-source Spatial Modeling Environment (SME) was developed to build upon common modeling software, such as STELLA (R), and Powersim (R), among others, to create, run, analyze, and present spatial models of ecosystems, watersheds, populations, and landscapes. In this book, the creators of the Spatial Modeling Environment discuss and illustrate the uses of SME as a modeling tool for all kinds of complex spatial systems. The authors demonstrate the entire process of spatial modeling, beginning with the conceptual design, continuing through formal implementation and analysis, and finally with the interpretation and presentation of the results.A variety of applications and case studies address particular types of ecological and management problems and help to identify potential problems for modelers. Researchers and students interested in spatial modeling will learn how to simulate the complex dynamics of landscapes. Managers and decision makers will acquire tools for predicting changes in landscapes while learning about both the possibilities and the limitations of simulation models. The enclosed CD contains SME, color illustrations and models and data from the examples in the book.

Modelling is a tool used by savvy business managers to understand the processes of their business and to estimate the impact of changes. Dynamic Modelling for Business Management applies dynamic modelling to business management, using accessible modelling techniques that are demonstrated starting with fundamental processes and advancing to more complex business models. Discussions of modelling emphasize its practical use for decision making and implementing change for measurable results. Readers will learn about both manufacturing and service-oriented business processes using hands-on lessons. Then will then be able to manipulate additional models to try out their knowledge and address issues specific to their own businesses and interests. All of the models used in the book and a run-time version of the ithink software are included on a CD-ROM included with the book. Some of the topics covered include workflow management, supply-chain-management, and strategy.

The dynamics of the atmosphere, ocean, and climate are inherently nonlinear and complex, making computer models ideal for accurate, complete understanding of these systems. In the process of building and using models, the reader of this book will learn how the different components of climate systems function, interact with each other, and vary over time. Topics covered include the stability of climate, earth's energy balance, parcel dynamics in the atmosphere, the mechanisms of heat transport in the climate system, and mechanisms of climate variability. Special attention is given to the effects of climate change. The book is accompanied by a cross-platform CD containing models and a run-time version of STELLA (R) software.

The effects of disturbed ecosystems, from devastating algal blooms to the loss of whale populations, have demonstrated the vulnerability of the oceans' biodiversity. Conservation of marine systems requires knowledge from many different fields in order to understand the complex interactions that threaten those systems. Dynamic Modeling for Marine Conservation provides a method of learning how these systems function, determining how natural and human actions have put them in peril and how we can best influence the marine world in order to maintain biodiversity.

The role of simulation modeling in understanding dynamic processes is now extending beyond research and university curricula to pre-college education. Computer modeling offers the promise of transforming teaching of many subjects, notably science, and is enhanced by the adoption of new standards for science education, the increasing access to scientific information through computer networks, and the availability of powerful, user-friendly modeling software. This book and its accompanying software will bring the tools and excitement of modeling to pre-college teachers, to researchers involved in curriculum development, and to software developers interested in the pre-college market.

Computer models offer a means of interpreting and analyzing the dynamics of real-world systems ranging from population growth to ozone depletion and a new section on modeling in genetics. Dynamic Modeling introduces an approach to modeling that makes it a more practical, intuitive endeavor. The book enables readers to convert their understanding of a phenomenon to a computer model, and then to run the model and let it yield the inevitable dynamic consequences built into the structure of the model. Dynamic Modeling uses STELLA software to develop simulation models. Part I provides an introduction to modeling dynamic systems. Part II offers general methods for modeling. Parts III through VIII apply these methods to model real-world phenomena from chemistry, genetics, ecology, economics, and engineering. To develop and execute dynamic simulation models, Dynamic Modeling comes with STELLA run-time software compatible with both Windows and Mac systems, as well as computer files of sample models used in the book.Dynamic Modeling offers a clear, approachable introduction to the modeling process, and will be of interest in any field where real problems can be illuminated by computer simulation.

Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems is a primer on using models to understand environmental problems. With their many natural, economic, political, and technical aspects, environmental problems require a systems approach. This book provides an introduction to modeling concepts and applications that is specifically geared toward the environmental field. Sections on modeling terminology, the uses of models, the model-building process, and the interpretation of output provide the foundation for detailed applications. After an introduction to the basics of dynamic modeling, the book leads students through an analysis of several environmental problems, including surface-water pollution, matter-cycling disruptions, and global warming. The scientific and technical context is provided for each problem, and the methods for analyzing and designing appropriate modeling approaches is provided. An accompanying CD for both Macintosh and Windows computers contains a run-time version of STELLA modeling software with models from the text.While the mathematical content does not exceed the level of a first-semester Calculus course, the book gives students all of the background, examples, and practice exercises needed both to use and understand environmental modeling. It is suitable for upper-level undergraduate and beginning-graduate-level environmental science courses. The text is also useful for environmental professionals seeking an introduction to modeling in their field. About the Series: The availability of powerful, intuitive software for developing and running simulation models of real-world phenomena promises a revolution in studying, teaching, and thinking about complex problems that range from the functioning of a cell to that of an ecosystem to

The world consists of many complex systems, ranging from our own bodies to ecosystems to economic systems. Despite their diversity, complex sys­ tems have many structural and functional features in common that can be effectively modeled using powerful, user-friendly software. As a result, vir­ tually anyone can explore the nature of complex systems and their dynam­ ical behavior under a range of assumptions and conditions. This ability to model dynamic systems is already having a powerful influence on teaching and studying complexity. The books in this series will promote this revolution in "systems think­ ing" by integrating skills of numeracy and techniques of dynamic modeling into a variety of disciplines. The unifying theme across the series will be the power and simplicity of the model-building process, and all books are de­ signed to engage readers in developing their own models for exploration of the dynamics of systems that are of interest to them. Modeling Dynamic Systems doesnot endorse any particular modeling paradigm or software. Rather, the volumes in the series will emphasize sim­ plicity of learning, expressive power, and the speed of execution as priori­ ties that will facilitate deeper system understanding.

The oceans are shrinking. They're not literally shrinking; warming in the last century has actually expanded the sea enough to threaten low-lying coastal lands that are vul­ nerable to storm surge. During the same interval, however, events on land have increasingly affected the sea. Since in most ways the Earth is a closed system-a zero-sum planet in today's parlance-as terrestrial influence on the sea expands, the sea's influence on its own processes shrinks. Control of many crucial marine processes no longer resides within the sea. The evidence for this is abundant and, to anyone who is looking, unmis­ takable. In recent decades scientists have witnessed unprecedented pertur­ bations and increases in previously uncommon events that demonstrate growing terrestrial influences on the sea. Numerous marine species, from sea urchins to monk seals, have experienced devastating epidemics. The number of harmful algal blooms and jellyfishpopulation explosions is rising An hypoxic "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico off the mouth of the Mississippi Rivernow appears each year and grows to encompass an area as large as NewJersey. Live coral cover in shallow reefs in Florida,Jamaica, the Maldives and many other locations has severely declined. Deepwater reef­ building corals, once widely distributed, have disappeared throughout much of their ranges. Researchers have discovered high concentrations of persis­ tent organic pollutants in declining populations of beluga whales and polar bears, both high trophic level predators in marine food webs.

Computer models offer a means of interpreting and analyzing the dynamics of real-world systems ranging from population growth to ozone depletion and a new section on modeling in genetics. Dynamic Modeling introduces an approach to modeling that makes it a more practical, intuitive endeavor. The book enables readers to convert their understanding of a phenomenon to a computer model, and then to run the model and let it yield the inevitable dynamic consequences built into the structure of the model. Dynamic Modeling uses STELLA software to develop simulation models. Part I provides an introduction to modeling dynamic systems. Part II offers general methods for modeling. Parts III through VIII apply these methods to model real-world phenomena from chemistry, genetics, ecology, economics, and engineering. Dynamic Modeling offers a clear, approachable introduction to the modeling process, and will be of interest in any field where real problems can be illuminated by computer simulation.

Models help us understand the dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that are known or assumed to result in a system's behavior. This book does not require a substantial background in mathematics or computer science.

Dynamic Modeling of Environmental Systems is a primer on using models to understand environmental problems. With their many natural, economic, political, and technical aspects, environmental problems require a systems approach. This book provides an introduction to modeling concepts and applications that is specifically geared toward the environmental field. Sections on modeling terminology, the uses of models, the model-building process, and the interpretation of output provide the foundation for detailed applications. After an introduction to the basics of dynamic modeling, the book leads students through an analysis of several environmental problems, including surface-water pollution, matter-cycling disruptions, and global warming. The scientific and technical context is provided for each problem, and the methods for analyzing and designing appropriate modeling approaches is provided. While the mathematical content does not exceed the level of a first-semester Calculus course, the book gives students all of the background, examples, and practice exercises needed both to use and understand environmental modeling. It is suitable for upper-level undergraduate and beginning-graduate-level environmental science courses. The text is also useful for environmental professionals seeking an introduction to modeling in their field.

The world consists of many complex systems, ranging from our own bodies to ecosystems to economi~ systems. Despite their diversity, complex systems have many structural and functional features in common that can be effec­ tively simulated using powerful, user-friendly software. As a result, virtually anyone can explore the nature of complex systems and their dynamical be­ havior under a range of assumptions and conditions. This ability to model dy­ namic systems is already having a powerful influence on teaching and study­ ing complexity. The books is this series will promote this revolution in "systems thinking" by integrating skills of numeracy and techniques of dynamic modeling into a variety of disciplines. The unifying theme across the series will be the power and simplicity of the model-building process, and all books are designed to engage the reader in developing their own models for exploration of the dy­ namics of systems that are of interest to them. Modeling Dynamic Systemsdoes not endorse any particular modeling par­ adigm or software. Rather, the volumes in the series will emphasize simplic­ ity of learning, expressive power, and the speed of execution as priorities that will facilitate deeper system understanding.

The world consists of many complex systems, ranging from our own bodies to ecosystems to economic systems. Despite their diversity, complex systems have many structural and functional features in common that can be effec­ tively simulated using powerful, user-friendly software. As a result, virtually anyone can explore the nature of complex systems and their dynamical be­ havior under a range of assumptions and conditions. This ability to model dy­ namic systems is already having a powerful influence on teaching and study­ ing complexity. The books is this series will promote this revolution in "systems thinking" by integrating skills of numeracy and techniques of dynamic modeling into a variety of disciplines. The unifying theme across the series will be the power and Simplicity of the model-building process, and all books are designed to engage the reader in developing their own models for exploration of the dy­ namics of systems that are of interest to them. Modeling Dynamic Systems does not endorse any particular modeling par­ adigm or software. Rather, the volumes in the series will emphasize simplic­ ity of learning, expressive power, and the speed of execution as priorities that will facilitate deeper system understanding.

This book is written for ecologists interested in capturing their understandings of how natural systems work in software – to help inform their work and communicate the consequences of proposed management plans.  Historically, ecologists had to rely on the skills of trained computer programmers to modeling natural systems, but now a new generation of software is allowing ecologists to directly capture their understandings of systems in software.  This book is a compilation of spatially explicit simulation models developed by ecologists and planners without any formal computer programming skills.  Readers will be inspired to believe that they too can create similar models of the systems with which they are familiar.

This book explores the dynamic processes in economic systems, concentrating on the extraction and use of the natural resources required to meet economic needs. Sections cover methods for dynamic modeling in economics, microeconomic models of firms, modeling optimal use of both nonrenewable and renewable resources, and chaos in economic models.

Modelling is a tool used by savvy business managers to understand the processes of their business and to estimate the impact of changes. Dynamic Modelling for Business Management applies dynamic modelling to business management, using accessible modelling techniques that are demonstrated starting with fundamental processes and advancing to more complex business models. Discussions of modelling emphasize its practical use for decision making and implementing change for measurable results. Readers will learn about both manufacturing and service-oriented business processes using hands-on lessons. Then will then be able to manipulate additional models to try out their knowledge and address issues specific to their own businesses and interests. Some of the topics covered include workflow management, supply-chain-management, and strategy.

The world consists of many complex systems, ranging from our own bodies to ecosystems to economic systems. Despite their diversity, complex systems have many structural and functional features in common that can be effectively si- lated using powerful, user-friendly software. As a result, virtually anyone can - plore the nature of complex systems and their dynamical behavior under a range of assumptions and conditions. This ability to model dynamic systems is already having a powerful influence on teaching and studying complexity. The books in this series will promote this revolution in “systems thinking” by integrating computational skills of numeracy and techniques of dynamic mod- ing into a variety of disciplines. The unifying theme across the series will be the power and simplicity of the model-building process, and all books are designed to engage the reader in developing their own models for exploration of the dyn- ics of systems that are of interest to them. Modeling Dynamic Systems does not endorse any particular modeling paradigm or software. Rather, the volumes in the series will emphasize simplicity of lea- ing, expressive power, and the speed of execution as priorities that will facilitate deeper system understanding.

This book is written for ecologists interested in capturing their understandings of how natural systems work in software – to help inform their work and communicate the consequences of proposed management plans.  Historically, ecologists had to rely on the skills of trained computer programmers to modeling natural systems, but now a new generation of software is allowing ecologists to directly capture their understandings of systems in software.  This book is a compilation of spatially explicit simulation models developed by ecologists and planners without any formal computer programming skills.  Readers will be inspired to believe that they too can create similar models of the systems with which they are familiar.

This book explores the dynamic processes in economic systems, concentrating on the extraction and use of the natural resources required to meet economic needs. Sections cover methods for dynamic modeling in economics, microeconomic models of firms, modeling optimal use of both nonrenewable and renewable resources, and chaos in economic models. This book does not require a substantial background in mathematics or computer science.

This volume teaches computer modeling of biological systems using models created by STELLA software, including cell development, the beating heart and the spread of epidemics. It includes easy-to-use software modules that require no prior experience to use.