Intelligence Community Studies Board – författare

Within the past decade an ever-growing number of New Space organizations have emerged that are unencumbered by legacy practices and constraints. By reimagining, creating, and continuously improving SmallSat space technology a new and growing space ecosystem is now in place that is capable of serving a broad stakeholder community of both traditional users and new or nontraditional users.

Current commercial practices are expanding with capabilities including technology and business-driven applications that open the door to a broad and vibrant ecosystem offering a wide range of solutions capable of supporting a growing range of stakeholders. In parallel to traditional approaches, space infrastructure related to manufacturing, such as customized spacecraft buses, instruments, and sensors—including high-resolution imaging and radar systems rivaling the performance of traditional systems—are emerging in both growing volume and with constantly improving capability. On the operational commercial ground stations are now routinely available, as are data management and analytics including cloud computing for data access and archiving. Thus, if properly encouraged and nourished, a broadly capable ecosystem can emerge including new business opportunities for data fusion, analysis, and databuys, as well as ground/space communications that can equally benefit both traditional and nontraditional user communities.

Leveraging Commercial Space for Earth and Ocean Remote Sensing assesses the feasibility and implications of creating and exploiting partnerships for developing, deploying, and operating a system of satellites and supporting infrastructure capable of sensing ocean, coastal, atmospheric, and hydrologic data of sufficient scientific quality to enable prediction models and to support near real time applications of national interest. This report identifies and describes promising options for such a system.

The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on August 9-10, 2017 to examine challenges in machine generation of analytic products from multi-source data. Workshop speakers and participants discussed research challenges related to machine-based methods for generating analytic products and for automating the evaluation of these products, with special attention to learning from small data, using multi-source data, adversarial learning, and understanding the human-machine relationship. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

Quantum mechanics, the subfield of physics that describes the behavior of very small (quantum) particles, provides the basis for a new paradigm of computing. First proposed in the 1980s as a way to improve computational modeling of quantum systems, the field of quantum computing has recently garnered significant attention due to progress in building small-scale devices. However, significant technical advances will be required before a large-scale, practical quantum computer can be achieved.

Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects provides an introduction to the field, including the unique characteristics and constraints of the technology, and assesses the feasibility and implications of creating a functional quantum computer capable of addressing real-world problems. This report considers hardware and software requirements, quantum algorithms, drivers of advances in quantum computing and quantum devices, benchmarks associated with relevant use cases, the time and resources required, and how to assess the probability of success.

Encryption is a process for making information unreadable by an adversary who does not possess a specific key that is required to make the encrypted information readable. The inverse process, making information that has been encrypted readable, is referred to as decryption. Cryptography has become widespread and is used by private as well as governmental actors. It also enables authentication and underlies the safe use of the Internet and computer systems by individuals and organizations worldwide. Emerging cryptographic technologies offer capabilities such as the ability to process encrypted information without first decrypting it.

At the request of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, this report identifies potential scenarios that would describe the balance between encryption and decryption over the next 10 to 20 years and assesses the national security and intelligence implications of each scenario. For each of these scenarios, Cryptography and the Intelligence Community identifies risks, opportunities, and actions. Attention to the findings should enable the Intelligence Community to prepare for the future and to recognize emerging trends and developments and respond appropriately.

High-performance electronics are key to the U.S. Air Force''s (USAF''s) ability to deliver lethal effects at the time and location of their choosing. Additionally, these electronic systems must be able to withstand not only the rigors of the battlefield but be able to perform the needed mission while under cyber and electronic warfare (EW) attack. This requires a high degree of assurance that they are both physically reliable and resistant to adversary actions throughout their life cycle from design to sustainment.

In 2016, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop titled Optimizing the Air Force Acquisition Strategy of Secure and Reliable Electronic Components, and released a summary of the workshop. This publication serves as a follow-on to provide recommendations to the USAF acquisition community.

In recent years, interest and progress in the area of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have boomed, with new applications vigorously pursued across many sectors. At the same time, the computing and communications technologies on which we have come to rely present serious security concerns: cyberattacks have escalated in number, frequency, and impact, drawing increased attention to the vulnerabilities of cyber systems and the need to increase their security. In the face of this changing landscape, there is significant concern and interest among policymakers, security practitioners, technologists, researchers, and the public about the potential implications of AI and ML for cybersecurity.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on March 12-13, 2019 to discuss and explore these concerns. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

The Intelligence Community Studies Board (ICSB) of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on December 11–12, 2018, in Berkeley, California, to discuss robust machine learning algorithms and systems for the detection and mitigation of adversarial attacks and anomalies. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on February 27, 2020 to explore insights from world-class experts and technologists familiar with the extensive range of issues associated with the counterproliferation mission, which is countering the spread of weapons of mass destruction, their delivery systems, related technologies, and expertise as a result of indigenous developments and/or transfers between entities. The workshop was designed to explore emerging technology intersections of interest and areas of convergence with relevance to the mission of the National Counterproliferation Center (NCPC) within the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

The agencies within the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) depend on advanced technology to achieve their goals. While AI, cloud computing, advanced sensors, and big data analytics will fundamentally change both the global threat landscape and IC tradecraft, advances from biology, chemistry, materials, quantum science, network science, social/behavioral/economic sciences, and other fields also have that potential. Maintaining awareness of advances in science and technology is more essential than ever, to avoid surprise, to inflict surprise on adversaries, and to leverage those advances for the benefit of the nation and the IC. This report explores ways in which the IC might leverage the future research and development ecosystem.

U.S. leadership in technology innovation is central to our nation''s interests, including its security, economic prosperity, and quality of life. Our nation has created a science and technology ecosystem that fosters innovation, risk taking, and the discovery of new ideas that lead to new technologies through robust collaborations across and within academia, industry, and government, and our research and development enterprise has attracted the best and brightest scientists, engineers, and entrepreneurs from around the world. The quality and openness of our research enterprise have been the basis of our global leadership in technological innovation, which has brought enormous advantages to our national interests.

In today''s rapidly changing landscapes of technology and competition, however, the assumption that the United States will continue to hold a dominant competitive position by depending primarily on its historical approach of identifying specific and narrow technology areas requiring controls or restrictions is not valid. Further challenging that approach is the proliferation of highly integrated and globally shared platforms that power and enable most modern technology applications.

To review the protection of technologies that have strategic importance for national security in an era of openness and competition, Protecting U.S. Technological Advantage considers policies and practices related to the production and commercialization of research in domains critical to national security. This report makes recommendations for changes to technology protection policies and practices that reflect the current realities of how technologies are developed and incorporated into new products and processes.

The Intelligence Community Studies Board of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a 2-day virtual workshop on December 17 and 21, 2021, to explore insights from world-class experts and technologists familiar with the extensive range of issues associated with anticipating rare events—those characterized by a very low probability of occurring—of major significance. Over the course of the 2-day workshop, the speakers discussed analytical methods, computational advances, data sources, and risk assessment approaches for anticipating rare events, including natural disasters, pandemics, anthropogenic threats, and widespread technological change. This proceedings is a factual summary of the presentations and discussion of the workshop.

The South Asia region presents a confluence of major climate impacts and key security issues. From a weather and climate standpoint, the region experiences a wide range of hazards, such as the recent heatwaves, droughts, storms, and floods that have upended the lives and livelihoods of millions of people. From a demographic and socioeconomic standpoint, the region is experiencing rapid transformations and progress, even as fundamental challenges such as poverty and inequality persist. From a security standpoint, the region is the setting for a range of social and political dynamics that impact U.S. interests, including conflict at national and subnational levels; regional rivalries; and the imprint of global geopolitics.

On October 26-27, 2022, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, under the auspices of the National Academies Climate Security Roundtable, convened a workshop to explore climate security in South Asia. Over two days, workshop participants considered some of the underlying climate, development, and geopolitical dynamics at play in the South Asia region; explored a set of historical case studies and future scenarios for climate change and security in South Asia; and they considered the available tools for analysis and forecasting climate-related risks. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.