Studies in Empirical Economics – serie

Econometric models are made up of assumptions which never exactly match reality. Among the most contested ones is the requirement that the coefficients of an econometric model remain stable over time. Recent years have therefore seen numerous attempts to test for it or to model possible structural change when it can no longer be ignored. This collection of papers from Empirical Economics mirrors part of this development. The point of departure of most studies in this volume is the standard linear regression model Yt = x;fJt + U (t = I, ... , 1), t where notation is obvious and where the index t emphasises the fact that structural change is mostly discussed and encountered in a time series context. It is much less of a problem for cross section data, although many tests apply there as well. The null hypothesis of most tests for structural change is that fJt = fJo for all t, i.e. that the same regression applies to all time periods in the sample and that the disturbances u are well behaved. The well known Chow test for instance assumes t that there is a single structural shift at a known point in time, i.e. that fJt = fJo (t< t*), and fJt = fJo + t1fJ (t"?:. t*), where t* is known.

This volume evolved from a conference on "Financial Markets Economet- rics" held at the ZEW (Zentrum fiir Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung) in Mannheim, Germany in February, 1992. However, not all papers included in this volume were presented at the conference. In some cases the papers are follow-up papers to the ones presented. The purpose of the conference was to bring together researchers from several European countries to discuss their applications of recent economet- ric methods to the analysis of financial markets. From a methodological point of view the main emphasis of the conference papers was on cointe- gration analysis and ARCH modelling. In . cointegration analysis the links between long-run components of time series are studied and the methods can .be applied to the determination of equilibrium relationships between the vari- ables, whereas ARCH models (ARCH is the acronym of autoregressive condi- tional heteroskedasticity) are concerned with the measurement and analysis of changing variances in time series. These two models have been the most significant innovations' for the empirical analysis of financial time series in recent years.Six papers of this volume apply cointegration analysis (the papers by MacDonald/Marsh, Hansen, Ronning, Garbers, Kirchgassner/Wolters, and Kunst/Polasek) and seven papers deal with ARCH models (Kramer/Runde, Drost, Kunst/Polasek, Kugler, Eggington/Hall, Koedijk/Stork/deVries, and Demos/Sentana/Shah). Other econometric methods and models applied in the papers include factor analysis (Eggington/Hall and Demos/Sentana/- Shah), vector autoregressions (Kirchgassner/Wolters and Kunst/Polasek), Markov-switching models (Garbers and Kaehler /Marnet), spectral analysis (Kirchgassner/Wolters), stable Paretian distributions (Kramer/Runde and Drost) and ARFIMA models (Drost).

This book contains eleven articles which provide empirical applications as well as theoretical extensions of some of the most exciting recent developments in time-series econometrics. The papers are grouped around three broad themes: (I) the modeling of multivariate times series; (II) the analysis of structural change; (III) seasonality and fractional integration. Since these themes are closely inter-related, several other topics covered are also worth stressing: vector autoregressive (VAR) models, cointegration and error-correction models, nonparametric methods in time series, and fractionally integrated models. Researchers and students interested in macroeconomic and empirical finance will find in this collection a remarkably representative sample of recent work in this area.

A number of advances have taken place in panel data analysisduring the pastthree decades and it continues to be one ofthe most active areas of research. This volume contains 13significant contributions focusing on modelling strategies,data issues, theoretical analysis and applications. Appliedeconometrics papers on the economics of labor, health,telecommunications, finance and macroeconomics are providedas well as a survey of recent theoretical developments inpanal data analysis. Contributors include both well knownscholars and younger researchers from Australia, Canada,Europe and the United States of America.

Over the last 20 years, applied general equilibrium (AGE) modelling has developed from a small academic research program into a routinely used policy assessment tool. Major governments and international agencies maintain AGE research groups, and call for their input to a variety of trade, tax, and other resource allocation issues. This book is a collection of papers representative of recent activity in this field. Contributions have been grouped into a methodological section, a trade section, and a section on energy issues, and this division accurately indicates the focus of the volume. Readers will thus have access to up to date techniques and results currently being used by researchers at the forefront of the research program.

Traditional trade theory explains trade only by differences between countries, notably differences in their relative endowments of factors of production.

Rising unemployment has become one of the most challenging problems for economic policy in many developed economies over the last fifteen years. In the second half of the 1970s and during the first half of the 1980s the labour market situation worsened dramatically. For the OECD area as a whole, unemployment as a percentage of the civilian labour force went up from 3.3 percent in 1974 to 8.1 percent in 1985. The increase in unemployment rates was even more pronounced for OECD-Europe, where it climbed from 3.3 percent to 10.5 percent in this period. Table 1.1: Unemployment Rates in some aECD Countries, 1974-1989 yearly average 1989 1974{79 1974 1979 1985 1980/85 1985/89 USA 5,6 5,8 7,2 5,2 6,8 8,1 6,2 UK 2,2 4,5 11,6 6,5 4,2 10,0 9,7 3,3 8,3 7,3 3,5 6,6 7,9 FRG 2,1 2,4 1,3 1,5 2,4 2,2 Sweden 1,6 1,7 Austria 1,1 1,7 3,6 3,4 1,5 3,0 3,5 Austria*) 1,5 2,0 4,8 5,0 1,9 3,6 5,3 OECDEurope 3,3 5,7 10,5 9,0 4,8 9,1 10,0 OECD 3,7 5,2 8,1 6,6 5,0 7,7 7,5 *) national definition - see footnote 1). Source: OECD, 1989; BMSA.

Subject and purpose of the book is the investigation of economic policy issues with the help of non-cooperative game theory. The most important feature of our work is to look at the possible strategic interactions between various economic agents and/or institutions.

The purpose of the book is to explore new ways to analyze recent trends in income inequality and poverty, both from the perspective of quantifying poverty and inequality and quantifyig the impact of various factors on the trends in inequality and poverty.

It is to demonstrate the enormous potential of the experimental method in economics by providing examples of how experimental economics can shed important new light on key issues of vital economic significance. The subject matter covers several areas of economics and demonstrates why and how experimental methodology can provide new insight. It should prove invaluable to all economists, but perhaps particularly those who are as yet unexposed to this particular methodology. The most active experimental economists contributed to this volume: Besides the editor of this volume there are to mention P. Bohm, P. Burrows and G. Loomes, G.W. Harrison, S.S. Lim, E.C. Prescott and S. Sunder, A.E. Roth, P. Sbriglia.

This book is a collection of state-of-the-art papers on the properties of business cycles and financial analysis. Overall, the book provides a state-of-the-art over­ view of new directions in methods and results for estimation and inference based on the use of Markov-switching time-series analysis.

This volume is devoted to the hysteresis phenomenon in economic relationships. This topic has received renewed attention in economics especially in the late eigh­ ties. Since the issue is not settled there is still a growing literature on it. The aim of this volume is to summarize the findings, present new results, and to draw attention to further research. All papers are written for this volume and are not published elsewhere. I am very grateful to all authors and referees without whose prompt and generous help this volume would not appear in the present form. A short summary of each paper is given in section 5 of the overview paper. Konstanz, January 1990 Wolfgang Franz University of Konstanz Contents Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview W. Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Hysteresis in Trade R. Baldwin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Some Evidence on the Membership Hysteresis Hypothesis in Europe M. C. Burda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Insider-Outsider Influences on Industry Wages D. T. Coe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Testing forHysteresis in Unemployment An Unobserved Components Approach A. Jaeger and M. Parkinson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Unemployment and Deterioration of Human Capital J. Moller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Hysteresis, Nairn and Long Term Unemployment in Austria P. Neudorfer, K. Pichelmann and M. Wagner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview l By W. Franz Can the socialist man be created so as not to show any hysteresis trace of his bourgois or peasant past? N. Georgescu-Roegen (l971. p. 126) 1 Introduction The hysteresis phenomenon has received renewed attention in economic science.

Over the last three decades much research in empirical and theoretical economics has been carried on under various assumptions. For example a parametric functional form of the regression model, the heteroskedasticity, and the autocorrelation is always as­ sumed, usually linear. Also, the errors are assumed to follow certain parametric distri­ butions, often normal. A disadvantage of parametric econometrics based on these assumptions is that it may not be robust to the slight data inconsistency with the particular parametric specification. Indeed any misspecification in the functional form may lead to erroneous conclusions. In view of these problems, recently there has been significant interest in 'the semiparametric/nonparametric approaches to econometrics. The semiparametric approach considers econometric models where one component has a parametric and the other, which is unknown, a nonparametric specification (Manski 1984 and Horowitz and Neumann 1987, among others). The purely non­ parametric approach, on the other hand, does not specify any component of the model a priori. The main ingredient of this approach is the data based estimation of the unknown joint density due to Rosenblatt (1956). Since then, especially in the last decade, a vast amount of literature has appeared on nonparametric estimation in statistics journals. However, this literature is mostly highly technical and this may partly be the reason why very little is known about it in econometrics, although see Bierens (1987) and Ullah (1988).

Thisbookisacollectionofeightpapersthatwerepublished in aspecial symposium issueofEmpirical Economicsdur- ing 1999. These papers cover several areasofinterest in contemporary public economics, including tax incidence, underground economy, welfare system, fiscal federalism, public infrastructure and the growth of government. The contributionsutilizeavarietyofquantitativetoolsofanaly- sis,includingappliedeconometrics,appliedgeneralequilib- rium modeling analysis, technical efficiency analysis and institutional analysis. The introductory essay in the book summarizes the contributionsofapplied public economics papers inthisbookandplacesthem inabroadercontextof modempublicfinanceeconomictheory.Theobjectiveofthe bookistomaketheseessaysavailableinaconvenientform toscholarsandstudentsengaged inresearchonpublic pol- icytopicsaswell astoinstructorsofcoursesinpubliceco- nomics, both undergraduate and graduate. A briefmotiva- tionforthebookisgivenbelow. Thestudyofpubliceconomicshasexperiencedanumber of dramatic changes during the past two decades. These changes have revolutionized, in a fundamental way, the subjectofpublic economics.This is due largely to several majordevelopments ineconomictheory,includingtheroles ofinformation theory and game theory along with its de- rivative theories, such as designofinstitutions as well as inter-temporal analysis. These economic theory develop- ments have altered in a fundamental way the way econo- mists and policy analysts perceive the roleofgovernment. Alsothesedevelopmentshavecalledintoquestiontheabil- ityofgovernmentstocarryoutsomeofitstraditionaltasks, particularly the efficient design of redistribution and tax systems. The theoretical research in public economics has contributedtothedevelopmentofnew instrumentsand ap- proaches to tackle problemsofeconomic policy in a more effectivemanner.Giventhattheevaluationofpolicyoptions requiresasoundunderstandingofboththenatureandmag- nitudeofeconomic,behaviouralandinstitutionalconstraints Preface VI thatarefaced bygovernments,there isaneedforempirical analysisofunderlyingpolicyquestionsandissues. Thiscollectionofessays on empirical finance indicates thatempiricalassessmentispossibleusingarichanddiverse setofempirical approaches.The various papers exemplify someofthevarioustechniquesthatcan beused byapplied researchersforsheddinglightonthequestionsofinterestin appliedpublicfinanceanditsapplications.

This book consists of four parts: I. Labour demand andsupply, II. Productivity slowdown and innovative activity,III. Disequilibrium and business cycle analysis, and IV.Time series analysis of output and employment. It presents afine selection of articles in the growing field oftheempirical analysis of output and employment fluctuationswith applications in a micro-econometric or a time-seriesframework. The time-series literature recently hasemphasized the careful testing for stationarity andnonlinearity in the data, and the importance ofcointegration theory. An essential part of the papers makeuse of parametric and non-parametric methods developed inthis literature and mostly connect their results to thehysteresis discussion about the existence of fragileequilibria. A second set of macro approaches use thedisequilibrium framework that has found so much interest inEurope in recent years. The other papers use newly developedmethods for microdata,especially qualitative data orlimited dependent variables to study microeconomic models ofbehaviour that explain labour market and output decisions.

One of the most enduring questions in economics involves how a nation could accelerate the pace of its economic development. One of the most enduring answers to this question is to promote exports -either because doing so directly influences development via encouraging production of goods for export, or because export promotion permits accumulation of foreign exchange which permits importation of high-quality goods and services, which can in turn be used to expand the nation's production possibilities. In either case, growth is said to be export-led; the latter case is the so-called "two-gap" hypothesis (McKinnon, 1964; Findlay, 1973). The early work on export-led growth consisted of static cross-country com­ parisons (Michaely, 1977; Balassa, 1978; Tyler, 1981; Kormendi and Meguire, 1985). These studies generally concluded that there is strong evidence in favour of export-led growth because export growth and income growth are highly correlated. However, Kravis pointed out in 1970 that the question is an essen­ tially dynamic one: as he put it, are exports the handmaiden or the engine of growth? To make this determination one needs to look at time series to see whether or not exports are driving income. This approach has been taken in a number of papers (Jung and Marshall, 1985; Chow, 1987; Serletis, 1992; Kunst and Marin, 1989; Marin, 1992; Afxentiou and Serletis, 1991), designed to assess whether or not individual countries exhibit statistically significant evidence of export-led growth using Granger causality tests.

The disappearance of central planned economies left politicians, researchers, consultants, and academics with an interest in economies in transition in vagueness about the actual state of the economy and its short and medium term prospects. This volume provides the reader with information on how to deal with the statistical shortcomings of economies in transition. Most economic variables published for these countries tend to encompass a short period of time or they possess a low measurement quality. Moreover, most of the series are subject to structural breaks, due to the change in the patterns of economic reactions over time. The contributions in this volume show various ways to solve or at least to lessen the before mentioned problems.

The present book is a collection of panel data papers, both theoretical and applied. Theoretical topics include methodology papers on panel data probit models, treatment models, error component models with an ARMA process on the time specific effects, asymptotic tests for poolability and their bootstrapped versions, confidence intervals for a doubly heteroskedastic stochastic production frontiers, estimation of semiparametric dynamic panel data models and a review of survey attrition and nonresponse in the European Community Household Panel. Applications include as different topics as e.g. the impact of uncertainty on UK investment, a Tobin-q investment model using US firm data, cost efficiency of Spanish banks, immigrant integration in Canada, the dynamics of individual health in the UK, the relation between inflation and growth among OECD and APEC countries, technical efficiency of cereal farms in England, and employment effects of education for disabled workers in Norway.

This book consists of four parts: I. Labour demand andsupply, II. Productivity slowdown and innovative activity,III. Disequilibrium and business cycle analysis, and IV.Time series analysis of output and employment. It presents afine selection of articles in the growing field oftheempirical analysis of output and employment fluctuationswith applications in a micro-econometric or a time-seriesframework. The time-series literature recently hasemphasized the careful testing for stationarity andnonlinearity in the data, and the importance ofcointegration theory. An essential part of the papers makeuse of parametric and non-parametric methods developed inthis literature and mostly connect their results to thehysteresis discussion about the existence of fragileequilibria. A second set of macro approaches use thedisequilibrium framework that has found so much interest inEurope in recent years. The other papers use newly developedmethods for microdata,especially qualitative data orlimited dependent variables to study microeconomic models ofbehaviour that explain labour market and output decisions.

This book contains nine articles by leading macroeconomists, growth theorists and econometricians who provide new empirical results, methodological developments and new interpretations of long-run economic growth findings. The topics covered include: the testable implications of various growth models, and identification of common trends, international trade and growth linkages, analysis of co-movements and convergence at regional levels of income, public services-growth, and money-growth linkages. In addition, an introduction to the focus and summary of the current research are presented.

The volume gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe in the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of central importance. The articles in this volume present empirical studies of money demand based on up-to-date time series econometric methods.

Thisbookisacollectionofeightpapersthatwerepublished in aspecial symposium issueofEmpirical Economicsdur- ing 1999. These papers cover several areasofinterest in contemporary public economics, including tax incidence, underground economy, welfare system, fiscal federalism, public infrastructure and the growth of government. The contributionsutilizeavarietyofquantitativetoolsofanaly- sis,includingappliedeconometrics,appliedgeneralequilib- rium modeling analysis, technical efficiency analysis and institutional analysis. The introductory essay in the book summarizes the contributionsofapplied public economics papers inthisbookandplacesthem inabroadercontextof modempublicfinanceeconomictheory.Theobjectiveofthe bookistomaketheseessaysavailableinaconvenientform toscholarsandstudentsengaged inresearchonpublic pol- icytopicsaswell astoinstructorsofcoursesinpubliceco- nomics, both undergraduate and graduate. A briefmotiva- tionforthebookisgivenbelow. Thestudyofpubliceconomicshasexperiencedanumber of dramatic changes during the past two decades. These changes have revolutionized, in a fundamental way, the subjectofpublic economics.This is due largely to several majordevelopments ineconomictheory,includingtheroles ofinformation theory and game theory along with its de- rivative theories, such as designofinstitutions as well as inter-temporal analysis. These economic theory develop- ments have altered in a fundamental way the way econo- mists and policy analysts perceive the roleofgovernment. Alsothesedevelopmentshavecalledintoquestiontheabil- ityofgovernmentstocarryoutsomeofitstraditionaltasks, particularly the efficient design of redistribution and tax systems. The theoretical research in public economics has contributedtothedevelopmentofnew instrumentsand ap- proaches to tackle problemsofeconomic policy in a more effectivemanner.Giventhattheevaluationofpolicyoptions requiresasoundunderstandingofboththenatureandmag- nitudeofeconomic,behaviouralandinstitutionalconstraints Preface VI thatarefaced bygovernments,there isaneedforempirical analysisofunderlyingpolicyquestionsandissues. Thiscollectionofessays on empirical finance indicates thatempiricalassessmentispossibleusingarichanddiverse setofempirical approaches.The various papers exemplify someofthevarioustechniquesthatcan beused byapplied researchersforsheddinglightonthequestionsofinterestin appliedpublicfinanceanditsapplications.

Complementing classical least squares regression methods which are designed to estimate conditional mean models, quantile regression provides an ensemble of techniques for estimating families of conditional quantile models, thus offering a more complete view of the stochastic relationship among variables.

In this paper, we propose a new econometric approach to jointly model the time series dynamics of the trading process and the revisions of ask and bid prices. Namely, we test whether ask and bid quotes respond symmetrically to trade-related shocks, and whether buyer-initiated trades and seller-initiated trades are equally informative.

Education and training are key to explain the current competitive strengths of national economies, and to secure future competitiveness. While in the past educational and training institutions were often seen as providers of necessary skills for national economies, this view has changed dramatically, with education and training now being seen as a key ingredient for international competitiveness. This collection of papers on various aspects of the economics of education and training reflects this new interest. Reflecting state-of the art research in a cross country comparison, the topics covered are financing of education, transition from school to work, organisation of education, school quality and issues that relate to it, like quality of peers and teacher quality. Some papers also address issues that relate to more vocational training activities, and how these are influenced by purpose-made programmes, or other institutions.

Spatial Econometrics is a rapidly evolving field born from the joint efforts of economists, statisticians, econometricians and regional scientists. The book provides the reader with a broad view of the topic by including both methodological and application papers. Indeed the application papers relate to a number of diverse scientific fields ranging from hedonic models of house pricing to demography, from health care to regional economics, from the analysis of R&D spillovers to the study of retail market spatial characteristics. Particular emphasis is given to regional economic applications of spatial econometrics methods with a number of contributions specifically focused on the spatial concentration of economic activities and agglomeration, regional paths of economic growth, regional convergence of income and productivity and the evolution of regional employment. Most of the papers appearing in this book were solicited from the International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics held in Rome (Italy) in 2006.

The present book is a collection of panel data papers, both theoretical and applied. Theoretical topics include methodology papers on panel data probit models, treatment models, error component models with an ARMA process on the time specific effects, asymptotic tests for poolability and their bootstrapped versions, confidence intervals for a doubly heteroskedastic stochastic production frontiers, estimation of semiparametric dynamic panel data models and a review of survey attrition and nonresponse in the European Community Household Panel. Applications include as different topics as e.g. the impact of uncertainty on UK investment, a Tobin-q investment model using US firm data, cost efficiency of Spanish banks, immigrant integration in Canada, the dynamics of individual health in the UK, the relation between inflation and growth among OECD and APEC countries, technical efficiency of cereal farms in England,  and employment effects of education for disabled workers in Norway.

The volume gives an overview of money demand analysis in Europe in the eve of the introduction of the Euro in some European countries. It contributes to the discussion on a suitable monetary policy for the new European Central Bank. The alternative strategies under discussion are a direct inflation targeting, an intermediate monetary targeting or a mixture of both. For these policy strategies a stable money demand relation is of central importance. The articles in this volume present empirical studies of money demand based on up-to-date time series econometric methods.

Complementing classical least squares regression methods which are designed to estimate conditional mean models, quantile regression provides an ensemble of techniques for estimating families of conditional quantile models, thus offering a more complete view of the stochastic relationship among variables.