SIPRI Monographs – serie

SIPRIStockholm International Peace Research Institute is an independent institute for scientific research, which aims to further an understanding of the conditions for peaceful solutions to international conflicts and for a stable peace. Over the past twenty years, SIPRI has concentrated on problems of armaments, disarmament, and arms regulation. SIPRI is financed mainly by the Swedish Parliament. Its staff, the Governing Board, and the Scientific Council are international. The prospect of large reductions of nuclear weapons poses fundamental questions about the purpose of nuclear weapons. Why have some states chosen to acquire nuclear weapons? How - and why - have these decisions been maintained over time? Why have some states elected to approach, but not cross, the nuclear threshold?This book examines the commonalities and differences in political approaches to nuclear weapons both within and among three groups of states: nuclear, non-nuclear, and threshold. The chapters explore the evolution of thinking about nuclear weapons and the role these weapons play in national security planning.The book transcends traditional East-West approaches to analysis of nuclear issues by giving equal prominence to the issues of nuclear proliferation and non-nuclearism. The book also provides a comprehensive analysis of how current approaches to nuclear weapons have evolved both within and among the countries under study.

Plutonium and highly enriched uranium (HEU) are the basic materials used in nuclear weapons. Plutonium also plays an important part in the generation of nuclear electricity. Knowing how much plutonium and HEU exist, where and in which form is vital for international security and nuclear commerce.Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1996 is a thorough revision of the World Inventory of Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium 1992. It provides a rigorous and comprehensive assessment of the amounts of plutonium and HEU in military and civilian programmes, in nuclear and non-nuclear weapon states, and in countries seeking to acquire nuclear weapons. The capabilities that exist for producing these materials around the world are examined in depth, as are the policy issues raised by them. Containing much new information, it is indispensable to all those concerned with the great contemporary issues in international nuclear relations: arms reductions in the nuclear weapon states, nuclear proliferation, nuclear smuggling, the roles of plutonium and enriched uranium in the nuclear fuel-cycle, and the disposition of surplus weapon material.

The use of reconnaissance satellites to verify arms control agreements and monitor crises has been suggested to the UN, but opposed by the super-powers. This volume examines some of the problems.

The efforts of the United States to develop defences against ballistic missiles (the Strategic Defense Initiative) is one of the most hotly debated topics of our time. This authoritative book contributes to the debate by presenting th searching and wide-ranging views of twenty-six international experts on the technical, legal, political, and military aspects of space weapons. They address such questions as: What are the technological promises and problems of strategic defence? What effects will SDI have on the arms race or on deterring nuclear war? How do China, India, and Japan perceive SDI? What can be done to guard international stability? These papers, which express every range of opinion on SDI, from an unqualified approval to total scepticism, are prefaced by an overview by the editor of the volume.

This book results from a research programme jointly financed by SIPRI and the United Nations Environment Programme, and examines the way in which certain resource limitations, such as water, oil, fisheries, can lead to conflict.

Since World War II, technological arms competition has increasingly militarized international political relations. The reversal of this by arms control and disarmament agreements is largely dependent on the provision of well researched information about what is happening the world military sector from an objective, non-military and neutral source. SIPRI has provided such a source, and this collection of articles celebrating its twentieth anniversary reflects the broad scope of the Institute's studies in the dynamics of armaments, disarmaments, and arms control.These articles summarize the state of play on a wide range of the topics on which SIPRI has focused. These include world military expenditure, military research and development, the arms trade, nuclear weapon stockpiles, nuclear weapon testing, the neutron bomb, the military use of outer space, chemical and biological warfare, nuclear deterrence and nuclear disengagement, the comprehensive test ban, the United Nations and disarmament, and public opinion on peace and war. These papers provide facts and figures, analysis of past trends and future perspectives, and SIPRI's conclusions and recommendations.

This book presents the first comprehensive analysis of the strategicm military and technological forces which are changing the nature and likelihood of war. As the world enters the post-nuclear, or 'second' nuclear age, it has to take account of this revolution in military affairs which is as fundamental as the introduction of gunpowder once was.The contributors explain and chart the exotic technologies such as 'Star Wars', the Cruise Missile explosion, new naval dynamics, the US Army's Forward 'Air-Land' doctrine, the Soviet 'Operational Manoeuvre Groups' and 'Theatres of Military-Strategic Operations', battle management, and new challenged complicating international security calculations. They also take account f the fact that we have twenty-first century weapons but only nineteenth century ways of thought, and that computers and artificial intelligence are lessening our comprehension and control. They conclude that the risk of inadvertent war is increasing, even as the risk of deliberate war is diminishing.

The value of major conventional weapons imported by Third World countries between 1971 and 1985 was quadruple that for the previous two decades. This spectacular increase reflects changes in the economic and technological relations between industrialized nations and the Third World, as well as having profound political repercussions.This book gives a comprehensive overview of the flow of major conventional weapons during the period 1971-85. It analyses both the suppliers and the main Third World recipients, describing the inflow of arms and the reasons underlying it. The facts that propel this arms trade are assessed in a concluding chapter which also analyses the structural changes that have occurred in the arms markets and their implications.The detailed statistics and arms trade registers for the period (in some cases from 1951), and the introduction of a new SIPRI price system for evaluating the arms trade, make this a valuable reference work.

Realistic appraisal of Soviet defence efforts is crucial to strategic planning and foreign policy analysis. Since Soviet defence expenditure figures are incomplete, however, our knowledge in this area is extremely limited. This study reviews the state of current knowledge in this field, and presents a critical review of the nature and limitation of traditional approaches.The contributors analyse newly available sources of economic, scientific, and technical military information, and conclude with an in-depth consideration of the relevance and impact of historical and cultural influences on current Russian-Soviet military strategy. There emerges a fascinating account, which both extends our knowledge and understanding, and sheds light on what is perhaps the single most important 'unknown' in the study of international affairs and defence needs.

Nuclear explosions are the most visible manifestation of the arms race, and the conclusion of a multilateral treaty that will meaningfully restrict nuclear testing has for three decades been a priority. While some see testing as essential for the development of nuclear weapons and for upholding nuclear deterrence postures, others are acutely concerned about the possible health hazards of nuclear tests. Proponents of a comprehensive test ban, or a very-low-threshold test ban, are convinced that further test limitations are the first, indispensable steps that must be taken to halt and reverse the nuclear rivalry among the great powers and to prevent the spread of nuclear wapons to more countries. The Stockholm International Peace Researach Institute (SIPRI) and the Canadian Institute for International Peace and Security (CIIPS) have jointly conducted a thorough study of the complex technical and political issues involved in a possible cessation or limitation of nuclear tests. This SIPRI-CIIPS publication contains papers by leading physicists, nuclear weapon designers, seismologists, international lawyers, strategic analysts, political scientists, and former government advisers and arms control negotiators. The editors' concise summary of all the issues and viewpoints is presented in the first part of the book, which also contains their own conclusions about the feasibility of achieving a meaningful test limitation that is adequately verifiable by existing or proposed technical means.

Is the arms trade totally uncontrolled? What are the main obstacles to limitations on arms transfers? What can be learned from past attempts at arms transfer control? This book, which completes SIPRI's trilogy on the facts and implications of Third World build-up of major conventional weapons, assesses past efforts, current proposals and future possibilities to limit the transfer of weapons and military technology to Third World countries.It is a companion to the two SIPRI volumes, Arms Production in the Third World (1986) and Arms Transfers to the Third World 1971-85 (OUP, 1987)

The most immediate threats to humankind are military devastation and environmental exhaustion, both on a global scale. SIPRI, in co-operation with the United Nations Environment Programme, presents with this book the fifth major study in a series that examines linkages between these two threats. In the study specialists from several disciplines examine the ways in which cultural norms concerning the environment have inhibited the conduct of war and preparations for it, and suggest how such norms could be strengthened and developed. The subject is approached from the following perspectives: historical evolution of cultural norms concerning war and the environment; differing approaches of men and women; the special challenge of the nuclear age; roles of government and law; influence of education and the mass media; and philosophical and aesthetic influences.This series addresses the problems of constraining war and of maintaining an environment that can promote human life and welfare by examining the issues of warfare and security in relation to environmental and ecological concerns and then formulating policy recommendations. It should prove of interest, therefore, to everyone who has a personal interest in these subjects.

Governments have been negotiating about disarmament, or more limited forms of arms control, for forty years. Despite these negotiations, weapons of increasing deadliness and sophistication continue to be developed. Through the use of case studies of particular negotiations (Partial and Comprehensive Test Ban, SALT I and II, INF and START, and MBFR/CFE), the book explores both the reasons for success and the obstacles leading to failure, and assesses the importance of different types of explanation.Dr Carter not only analyses the reasons why negotiations fail, she also examines the conditions under which they are likely to succeed. The result is a balanced comprehensive treatment of the problems and prospects for arms control.

Since the Second World War five navies are known to have acquired nuclear weapons, and naval forces and activities around the world have become increasingly important and dangerous. However, there has been no serious consideration of naval arms control for more than forty years. SIPRI gathered together a group of experts from eight nations to consider the problems of naval forces and the possibilities for arms control. This book is a product of that conference, and it presents for the first time a broad and detailed assessment of the dangers of the naval arms race, problems with arms control, possible approaches, confidence-building measures, and verification technologies.

In this book Robert E. Harkavy analyses the modern status and the associated diplomacy of basing access, against the background of past political, military, and technological relationships. He provides a comprehensive description of the major powers' global basing networks, including their types, their locations, and the politics and economics of their acquisition. Professor Harkavy also gives details of the facilities the bases make available - naval, air, ground, missile, intelligence, communications, research and testing, environmental monitoring, and space-related - and provides a wealth of tables and maps depicting US and Soviet global networks.He analyses the roles of these bases for the USA, the USSR and other major powers, and discusses emerging political and technological developments which may alter basing diplomacy: the diffusion of power away from the superpowers, the increasing leverage of the smaller countries that host bases, the strengthened role of satellites in comparison with facilities on land and the possible impact of space defences on basing requirements. The crucial link between arms transfers and the politics of basing is emphasized, and the final section is devoted to the politics and economics of foreign military presence.

For many people who live in Europe, the presence of substantial US military forces is a matter of concern and debate, which has tended so far to centre around a few highly-visible bases, such as the cruise missile locations. Apart from these few bases, relatively little is known about the size and extent of the US military presence in Europe. This book aims to fill that gap by providing the raw data on what is where.The study also highlights the historical details behind the acquisition of bases in individual countries, and summarizes and analyses all of the basing agreements between the US and its host nations which are available to the public. The book a timely contribution to the debate: as discussions begin for possible post-INF cuts in superpower force levels in Europe, there is an urgent need for accurate and unbiased information on US forces in Western Europe and on the massive infrastructure that supports those forces.

This book examines the question: is the elimination of nuclear weapons feasible? Individual chapters address the major conceptual, technical, and economic issues in the design of a non-nuclear security regime. Other chapters explore more specialized issues as they relate to the feasibility of the elimination of nuclear weapons: élite perceptions and the decision-making process, verification, nuclear proliferation, fissile materials and warheads, alliances and regional hegemonies, and deterrence. The concluding chapter addresses those issues relating to the maintenance of a non-nuclear security regime.

The subject of this book is Europe after the cold war. The European security landscape has changed considerably. The period from November 1989 to November 1990 can be compared with such decisive dates in twentieth-century European history as 1918 and 1945. Germany and Europe have entered a crucial period of transition. While it was relatively easy to describe the dramatic events and changes in the making, it is now more difficult to demonstrate their mutual relationships within the framework of the new European system emerging from them.The documents published in this volume - many of them for the first time - provide an important record of this historic period. Key papers by some of the leading German politicians of this period, delivered at Potsdam in February 1990, are also presented. The volume provides the background for a better understanding of developments in Europe - particularly the role of the new German state, to contribute to a sober assessment of the role which the united Germany can play in an emerging new structure for European security, and to facilitate further research on these topics and related issues.

Profound changes are occurring in the structure of arms production in Western Europe. In this book, experts describe how the framework for producing arms in Western Europe is altered, and how various actors–firms, governments, unions–are adapting to the new situation. The book presents detailed analyses for all arms-producing countries in Western Europe. In addition to describing recent changes, the authors speculate on the implications of these for the balance of power in Western Europe, the relations between Western Europe and the United States, arms exports to the Third World, and problems of converting military production to civilian uses.

Conventional Arms Control provides an analysis of the political and operational problems of verification of conventional arms control in Europe. It examines aspects of the verification of the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) and includes assessments of the different negotiating positions and concepts involved. Based on this analysis it looks towards the future - exploring issues associated with continuing conventional arms control discussions and possibilities. The experience gained in the Persian Gulf War is discussed in terms of its relevance for monitoring conventional deployments. The analysis covers aspects of verification and transparency associated with `Open Skies' and CSBM regimes, and indicates trends and prospects for the future of related activities.

Although for a long time naval arms control was the forgotten dimension of arms control, it has become increasingly prominent in recent years. However, it is usually studied from the perspective of Soviet-American relations. This book examines the subject from a European perspective. What role might naval arms control play in the European context? What impact might naval arms control have on the interests and perceptions of European states? What opportunities for and obstacles to naval arms control exist in Europe? This collection of essays addresses these questions, describing the naval interests and attitudes towards naval arms control of European coastal states, as well as the Soviet Union and the United States, in the Norwegian, Baltic, and Mediterranean seas.

This book presents different views on nuclear disarmament and arms control and a brief history of nuclear non-proliferation policy and the nuclear test ban issue. It describes the preparations for and results of the 1990 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference and the 1991 Partial Test Ban Treaty Amendment Conference. With a view to 1995, it assesses the chances for consensus or dissension regarding regarding nuclear proliferation and the test ban, and the prospects for an extension of NPT. It concludes by examining the future and the threat of a new North-South divide over these issues.

Governments have a legal obligation to ensure effective control over arms exports and to monitor and supervise the movement of arms to ensure that they do not fall into unauthorized hands. The purpose of this book is to provide a detailed picture of how governments discharge this responsibility. Individual chapters describe national efforts to control arms transfers, concentrating on the legal framework that exists to regulate arms exports. The book includes a discussion of existing multilateral arms transfer control regimes, including the United Nations, the Co-ordinating Committee for East-West Trade Policy (CoCom), the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) and arms embargoes agreed by the Council of Ministers of the European Community. Every effort has been made to produce a comprehensive compendium, but total success has been prevented by the continued failure of some governments to release adequate information into the public domain.

This book presents a detailed assessment of the conditions for security relations between Washington and Moscow in the post-cold war era, focusing on the scope for future co-operative management of common security. Three main areas provide the context for a thematically and theoretically varied discussion: the security and foreign policy implications of the transition from the Soviet to a Russian/Commonwealth regime; military power and international stability after the cold war; and the political, military, and technological requirements for a new security relationship.

Arms Industry Limited is an empirical account of the size and structure of the world arms industry with special case studies of the United States, the former Soviet Union, Canada, countries in both Western and Central Europe, and countries in the less developed world and in the Asia-Pacific region.The book describes the various strategies which arms producing companies have adopted in order to meet the challenges and commitments of the post-cold war world. Governments are in the process of restructuring national armed forces and revising military equipment procurement plans. Military budgets are tighter in many parts of the world, affecting national arms production and arms exports.The most common company strategies are to reduce the size of the firm and lay off employees, to mothball production facilities, to `transnationalize' firms, and to convert firms to non-military production. While there are counter-pressures to a decrease in the production and export of arms, in the future companies will probably have to reduce their production capacities and number of employees even further. The strong international pressure on governments to regulate arms exports, particularly since the 1991 Persian Gulf War, is also examined by the international group of experts who have contributed the case studies in the volume.

Chris Smith explores the evolution of Indian defence policy since 1947. He looks carefully at the domestic dynamics of Indian defence policy. This includes an in-depth analysis of the period 1947-62, which is often ignored by Indian defence analysts, and the performance of the defence industrial base. He concludes that India's defence policy is designed more as one aspect of the quest for great power status than as an attempt to aquire security at an affordable price.

Central and Eastern Europe focuses on the challenges and dilemmas posed to stability in the former USSR, and Central and Eastern Europe by the radical changes brought about by the collapse of Communist rule. Recognizing the need to adopt an approach that does justice to what is unquestionably a momentous process of change, it focuses on the security implications of continuing developments in the political, social, economic, and military spheres.The heart of the book is a set of case studies examining in detail the situation in a number of countries: Hungary, Poland, the Czech and Slovak republics, Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic states, the Balkan region, and the former Yugoslavia. By way of introduction to the case studies, a further section of essays assesses developments in Central and Eastern Europe from a broader thematic perspective, focusing on such important issues as the role of European organizations in the ethnic conflicts currently much in evidence throughout the region.

The author focuses on the critical developments, technological in particular, which are currently posing a threat to the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Crucial technologies affecting nuclear weapon proliferation and their potential ramifications for the nuclear non-proliferation regimes as a whole are examined and potential policy options which could ameliorate or eliminate the resulting dangers are analysed and assessed.Developments and problems raised by the Iraqi and North Korean nuclear programmes receive special attention. In particular, recent efforts in strengthening export control regulations on nuclear and dual-use technology and equipment and in improving nuclear safeguards are described and their impact analysed. Of lasting relevance in the non-proliferation context, this book is of particular relevance in the light of the indefinite extension of the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

This is the second volume of a two-part study on international issues in the post cold-war era. Ten authors consider regional conflicts, how relations among the great powers could be affected by such conflicts and how co-operation among the leading nations, especially Russia and the United States, might influence the course of regional strife.The end of the cold war closed one chapter in history - the global struggle between the USA and USSR. It has not brought an end to regional conflicts. This volume analyses three broad categories of regional conflicts:* Countries in the developing world where US and Russian interests are more or less equally engaged * Countries of special interest to one or more of the great powers, and * Countries where there is no overriding Russian or US national security interest. The challenge to US-Russian co-operation is examined under the major headings of preventive diplomacy in an era of high technology, dilemmas of US-Russian security co-operation and international security organizations as instruments for great power co-operation.