Peterson Institute for International Economics – förlag

The European currency crises of 1992-93, the Mexican crisis of 1994-95, and especially the Asian/global crisis of 1997-98, have all contributed to a heightened interest in the early warning signals of financial crises. This pathbreaking study presents a comprehensive battery of empirical tests on the performance of alternative early warning indicators for emerging-market economies that should prove useful in the construction of a more effective global warning system.Not only are the authors able to draw conclusions about which specific indicators have sent the most reliable early warning signals of currency and banking crises in emerging economies, they also test the out-of-sample performance of the model during the Asian crisis and find that it does a good job of identifying the most vulnerable economies. In addition, they show how the early warning system can be used to construct a "composite" crisis indicator to weigh the importance of alternative channels of cross-country "contagion" of crises, and to generate information about the recovery path from crises.This timely study comes on the eve of impending changes at the International Monetary Fund as that institution reexamines how it reacts to financial crises. Moreover, the study provides "... a wealth of valuable elements for anyone investigating and forecasting adverse developments in emerging markets as well as industrial countries," according to Ewoud Schuitemaker, vice president of the economics department at ABN AMRO Bank.

The Asian crisis has sparked a thoroughgoing reappraisal of current international financial norms, the policy prescriptions of the International Monetary Fund, and the adequacy of the existing financial architecture. To draw proper policy conclusions from the crisis, it is necessary to understand exactly what happened and why from both a political and an economic perspective.In this study, renowned political scientist Stephan Haggard examines the political aspects of the crisis in the countries most affected—Korea, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia. Haggard focuses on the political economy of the crisis, emphasizing the longer-run problems of moral hazard and corruption, as well as the politics of crisis management and the political fallout that ensued. He looks at the degree to which each government has rewoven the social safety net and discusses corporate and financial restructuring and greater transparency in business-government relations. Professor Haggard provides a counterpoint to the analysis by examining why Singapore, Taiwan, and the Philippines escaped financial calamity. The volume... provides an excellent overview of both the theories and facts of the crisis. Strongly recommended for academic collections, lower-division undergraduate through research.

Antiglobalist forces have been gaining greater momentum in recent years in their efforts to reverse what they view as the negative effects of an integrating global economy. Their influence was felt earlier when efforts to create a Multilateral Agreement on Investment (MAI) ended in failure in 1998 after France left the bargaining table at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, effectively killing the initiative. In this book, through an evaluation of the MAI itself and the issues raised by its opponents, Edward M. Graham takes a fresh look at the growing backlash against globalization.He first explores whether the MAI negotiations failed due to political maneuvering by antiglobalist nongovernmental organizations (supported by US organized labor) or because of irreconcilable differences among the negotiating parties over the substance of the issue of foreign direct investment. He then objectively and thoroughly assesses antiglobalist assertions that the activities of multinational firms have had negative effects on workers both in the home (investor) and host (recipient) nations, with a special focus on developing nations. An important finding is that multinational firms tend to pay workers in developing nations wages that are significantly above prevailing wages. Graham then examines the issue of globalized economic activity and the environment, finding that economic growth in developing nations can lead to increased environmental stress but also finding that foreign direct investment can lead to reductions in this stress. He finds that the worry of many environmentalists of a "race to the bottom" is not borne out by the evidence. The final chapters assess whether or not a negotiation to create a comprehensive agreement on investment should be included in a multilateral negotiating round at the World Trade Organization in the near future. The interests of developing nations in this agenda are given special attention. Graham indicates that, while many developing nations would accept such rules, it might nonetheless be premature to press for a comprehensive agreement at this time. Rather, a limited investment agenda might be both more feasible and more productive.

Globalization is exposing social fissures between those with the education, skills, and mobility to flourish in an unfettered world market—the apparent "winners"—and those without. These apparent "losers" are increasingly anxious about their standards of living and their precarious place in an integrated world economy. The result is severe tension between the market and broad sectors of society, with governments caught in the middle. Compounding the very real problems that need to be addressed by all involved, the knee-jerk rhetoric of both sides threatens to crowd out rational debate. From the United States to Europe to Asia, positions are hardening.Dani Rodrik brings a clear and reasoned voice to these questions. Has Globalization Gone Too Far? takes an unblinking and objective look at the benefits—and risks—of international economic integration, and criticizes mainstream economists for downplaying its dangers. It also makes a unique and persuasive case that the "winners" have as much at stake from the possible consequences of social instability as the "losers." As Rodrik points out, "... social disintegration is not a spectator sport—those on the sidelines also get splashed with mud from the field. Ultimately, the deepening of social fissures can harm all."President Clinton read the book and it provided the conceptual basis for the trade/IMF portions of his State of the Union message in January 1998.

The recently-adopted OECD convention outlawing bribery of foreign public officials is welcome evidence of how much progress has been made in the battle against corruption. The financial crisis in East Asia is an indication of how much remains to be done. Corruption is by no means a new issue but it has only recently emerged as a global issue. With the end of the Cold War, the pace and breadth of the trends toward democratization and international economic integration accelerated and expanded globally. Yet corruption could slow or even reverse these trends, potentially threatening economic development and political stability in some countries.As the global implications of corruption have grown, so has the impetus for international action to combat it. In addition to efforts in the OECD, the Organization of American States, the World Trade Organization, and the United Nations General Assembly, the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund have both begun to emphasize corruption as an impediment to economic development.This book includes a chapter by the Chairman of the OECD Working Group on Bribery discussing the evolution of the OECD convention and what is needed to make it effective. Other chapters address the causes and consequences of corruption, including the impact on investment and growth and the role of multinational corporations in discouraging bribery. The final chapter summarizes and also discusses some of the other anticorruption initiatives that either have been or should be adopted by governments, multilateral development banks, and other international organizations.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown dramatically and is now the largest and most stable source of private capital for developing countries and economies in transition, accounting for nearly 50 percent of all those flows. Meanwhile, the growing role of FDI in host countries has been accompanied by a change of attitude, from critical wariness toward multinational corporations to sometimes uncritical enthusiasm about their role in the development process. What are the most valuable benefits and opportunities that foreign firms have to offer? What risks and dangers do they pose? Beyond improving the micro and macroeconomic "fundamentals" in their own countries and building an investment-friendly environment, do authorities in host countries need a proactive (rather than passive) policy toward FDI?In one of the most comprehensive studies on FDI in two decades, Theodore Moran synthesizes evidence drawn from a wealth of case literature to assess policies toward FDI in developing countries and economies in transition. His focus is on investment promotion, domestic content mandates, export-performance requirements, joint-venture requirements, and technology-licensing mandates. The study demonstrates that there is indeed a large, energetic, and vital role for host authorities to play in designing policies toward FDI but that the needed actions differ substantially from conventional wisdom on the topic. Dr. Moran offers a pathbreaking agenda for host governments, aimed at maximizing the benefits they can obtain from FDI while minimizing the dangers, and suggests how they might best pursue this agenda.

This study presents the case for an international banking standard (IBS) to deal with the rash of banking crises in developing countries. Over the past 15 years, almost three-fourths of the IMF''s member countries have experienced at least one serious bout of banking problems; there have been at least a dozen developing country episodes where the costs of these crises amounted to 10 percent or more of the country''s GDP; and the total public sector resolution costs of developing-country banking crises have been estimated to be $250 billion. Not only are these banking crises extremely costly to developing countries, they also pose increased risk to industrial countries.Morris Goldstein demonstrates that existing international agreements do not address the main sources of these crises, and the adoption of a voluntary IBS offers a more attractive route to banking reform than the relevant alternatives. The study recommends minimum standards in eight key areas of banking supervision and addresses the operational issues associated with the design and implementation of an IBS.

There is inherent tension between the increasingly global focus of foreign investors and the continuing national focus of governments. Countries, particularly developing ones, compete to attract investment from global corporations, and they attach performance requirements to tilt the impact of those investments in their favor. This is because the host nations expect investment to raise growth levels, efficiency, and living standards. At the same time, the home countries of such corporations worry that their firms are not accorded fair and reciprocal treatment abroad. These issues have become a source of conflict among nations, one that could escalate considerably if an agreement is not soon reached.Graham''s study analyzes the nature and depth of the international investment problem and its potential impact on the world economy and on economic relations among nations. He urges that current rules on foreign direct investment be enlarged and restructured via new international rules and institutional arrangements and offers two alternatives for doing so.

After nearly five decades of insulation from world markets, state controls, and slow growth, India embarked in 1991 on a process of liberalization of controls and progressive integration with the global economy in an effort to put its economy on a path of rapid and sustained growth. Despite major changes in the government since then, the thrust on reforms has been maintained. According to the World Bank, only 10 out of 145 countries had more rapid growth than India at over 6 percent per year in the 1990s and two had the same as India''s.In this study, T. N. Srinivasan and Suresh D. Tendulkar analyze the economics and politics of India''s recent and growing integration with the world economy. They argue that this process has to be nurtured and accelerated if India is to eradicate its poverty and take its rightful place in the global economic system.The study covers the historical roots and the political economy of India''s late integration; domestic and external constraints on integration; external capital inflows including foreign direct investment; and India''s emerging comparative advantage in the information technology industry and services, particularly computer software. The final chapter offers policy recommendations including proposals that India could make at the ongoing Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations.

Price divergence is readily apparent to anyone who shops. Travelers from Manchester to London, or from Chicago to Paris, are hit by sticker shock. Products ranging from London Fog raincoats to Viagra are available over the Internet at half their retail store prices. Common experience tells us that prices for identical products differ between countries, between cities, even between neighboring shops. On the other hand, common experience also tells us that open markets and greater competition will force a degree of price convergence, if not identical prices.This monograph presents speculative calculations that illustrate potential benefits from price convergence between countries. The authors take a fresh look at global economic integration by examining existing price divergence, and possible price convergence, across a range of consumer goods and then calculate the potential benefits of price convergence on a country-by-country basis and for the world as a whole. This study examines the potential benefits from price convergence resulting from more competition and market integration, not perfect competition and market integration. The authors calculate these benefits assuming that the world economy can attain the same degree of competition and market integration—and hence price convergence—as exists within the United States.

Between 1977 and 1997, there was a precipitous decline in the proportion of US workers with median education (12 years or less) who were represented by a labor union—from 29 to 14 percent; the unionization proportion declined much less among workers with above-median education (19 to 13 percent). The union wage premium also declined for workers with basic education, from 58 to 51 percent, whereas it rose slightly for better-educated unionists, from 18 to 19 percent. Thus, whatever safety net American unions provide was disproportionately lost by the less-educated workers who, arguably, need it the most.In this study, Robert E. Baldwin investigates the role of changes in US imports and exports in explaining this dramatic decline. The main analysis (which includes workers in manufacturing as well as service sectors) relates changes in the number of union workers across industries to changes in domestic spending, imports, exports, and the intensity with which labor is used across these industries for both union and nonunion workers. Baldwin finds that although globalization (i.e., increased trade) seems to have contributed only modestly to the general decline in unionization, it has, more importantly, contributed to the decline in unionization among workers with less education. The study concludes with a discussion on the implication of this and the other findings for governmental policy and for the policy position of unions toward globalization.

This volume is a successor of sorts to the Institute''s 1986 volume Toward Renewed Economic Growth in Latin America, which blazed the trail for the market-oriented economic reforms that were adopted in Latin America in the subsequent years. It again presents the work of a group of leading Latin American economists who were asked to think about the nature of the economic policy agenda that the region should be pursuing after a decade that was punctuated by crises, achieved disappointingly slow growth, and saw no improvement in the region''s highly skewed income distribution. The study diagnoses the first-generation (liberalizing and stabilizing) reforms that are still lacking, the complementary second-generation (institutional) reforms that are necessary to provide the institutional infrastructure of a market economy with an egalitarian bias, and the new initiatives that are needed to crisis-proof the economies of the region to end its perpetual series of crises.Contributors: Daniel Artana, Nancy Birdsall, Roberto Bouzas, Saúl Keifman, Pedro-Pablo Kuczynski, Ricardo López Murphy, Claudio de Moura Castro, Fernando Navajas, Patricio Navia, Liliana Rojas-Suarez, Jaime Saavedra, Miguel Székely, Andrés Velasco, John Williamson, and Laurence Wolff.

A new era of globalization, which began in the 1980s, brought about a significant decline in costs of transportation, communication, and production; considerably improved intercountry competitiveness; and broke down trade and cultural barriers among countries. The concept of a sovereign nation has been increasingly questioned in recent years. Some, indeed, have imagined a world without boundaries, without countries. Others who doubt the benefits of globalization have called for increased protectionism and greater regulation of economic activity. Has globalization made the world grow faster? Has poverty declined at a faster pace during globalization? If yes, why? If not, is it because the growth rate was lower, or because inequality worsened, or both? Who gained from globalization? Was it the elite in both the developed and developing world? What about the middle class? Who are they? How did they benefit from (or lose to) the forces of globalization?This comprehensive study firmly debunks several popular myths such as the belief that globalization has resulted in lower overall growth rates for poor countries, increasing world inequality, and stagnating poverty levels. Through rigorous, integrated methodologies and an enhanced dataset, the author, Surjit Bhalla, answers some of the most pressing policy issues confronting us today.

In this conference volume, distinguished economists and trade policymakers address the US initiatives to enter into free trade negotiations with a broad range of countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the Western Hemisphere, and Africa. The sheer number of these initiatives is unprecedented and has provoked major policy questions concerning US interests in the negotiations, the setting of priorities among the many contenders for concluding free trade agreements (FTAs) with the United States, the objectives of those trading partners, and the implications that these agreements could have for broader initiatives such as the Doha Round in the World Trade Organization and the Free Trade Area of the Americas.The papers in the volume were presented during a conference on FTAs and US trade policy, sponsored by the Institute in May 2003. The editor, Jeffrey Schott, summarizes the policy implications drawn from the conference papers and discussions, which are organized around several topics: the conceptual case for FTAs and how they have worked in the past; what FTAs imply for the broader global system; the specific agreements that are already being pursued (Australia, Central America, Morocco, southern Africa) or considered (ASEAN, Brazil, Egypt, Korea, and Taiwan). The volume includes a technical appendix with results of GTAP and gravity model simulations of the trade and welfare effects of the prospective agreements.

The stakes of the poor in trade policy are large: Free trade can help 500 million people escape poverty and inject $200 billion annually into the economies of developing countries, according to author William R. Cline. This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for trade liberalization to spur growth and reduce poverty in developing countries.It quantifies the impact on global poverty of industrial-country liberalization, as well as liberalization by the developing countries. Half or more of the annual gains from trade would come from the removal of industrial-country protection against developing-country exports. By removing their trade barriers, industrial countries could convey economic benefits to developing countries worth about twice the amount of their annual development assistance. By helping developing countries grow through trade, moreover, industrial countries could lower costs to consumers for imports and realize other economic efficiencies. The study estimates that free trade could reduce the number of people earning less than $2 per day by about 500 million over 15 years. This would cut the world poverty level by 25 percent. Cline judges that the developing countries were right to risk collapse of the Doha Round at the Cancun ministerial meeting in September 2003 by insisting on much deeper liberalization of agriculture than the industrial countries were then willing to offer.The study calls for a two-track strategy: first, deep multilateral liberalization involving phased but complete elimination of industrial-county protection and deep reduction of protection by at least the middle-income developing countries, albeit on a more gradual schedule; and second, immediate free entry for imports from "high risk" low-income countries (heavily indebted poor countries, least developed countries, and sub-Saharan Africa), coupled with a 10-year tax holiday for direct investment in these countries.