Department of Homeland Security Bioterrorism Risk Assessment

Committee on Methodological Improvements to the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Agent Risk Analysis, National Research Council

• 1 Front Matter; 2 Summary; 3 1 Introduction; 4 2 The Critical Contribution of Risk Analysis to Risk Management and Reduction of Bioterrorism Risk; 5 3 Description and Analysis of the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment of 2006; 6 4 Department of Homeland Security Decision Requirements for Risk Management; 7 5 Risk Assessment for Unknown and Engineered Biothreat Agents; 8 6 Improving Bioterrorism Consequence Assessment; 9 7 Improving the Department of Homeland Security's Biological Threat Risk Assessment and Adding Risk Management; 10 Appendix A: Lexicon; 11 Appendix B: Mathematical Characterization of the Biological Threat Risk Assessment Event Tree and Risk Assessment; 12 Appendix C: Computational Example Illustrating the Replacement of a Joint Distribution of Arc Probabilities with Marginal Expected Values of Individual Arc Probabilities; 13 Appendix D: Bioterrorism Risk Analysis with Decision Trees; 14 Appendix E: Optimizing Department of Homeland Security Defense Investments: Applying Defender-Attacker (-Defender) Optimization to Terror Risk Assessment and Mitigation; 15 Appendix F: Combining Game Theory and Risk Analysis in Counterterrorism: A Smallpox Example; 16 Appendix G: On the Quantification of Uncertainty and Enhancing Probabilistic Risk Analysis; 17 Appendix H: Game Theory and Interdependencies; 18 Appendix I: Review of BTRA Modeling; 19 Appendix J: Reprinted Interim Report; 20 Appendix K: Meeting Agendas; 21 Appendix L: Biographies of Committee Members; 22 Appendix M: Acronyms