National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report – serie

The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. "Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis" focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. Further contributions discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy.

Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn't fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.

Along with its painful economic costs, the financial crisis of 2008 raised concerns over the future of international policy making. As in recessions past, new policy initiatives emerged that placed greater importance on protecting national interests than promoting international economic cooperation. Whether in fiscal or monetary policies, the control of currencies and capital flows, the regulation of finance, or the implementation of protectionist policies and barriers to trade, there has been an almost worldwide trend toward the prioritizing of national economic security. But what are the underlying economic causes of this trend, and what can economic research reveal about the possible consequences? Prompted by these questions, Robert C. Feenstra and Alan M. Taylor have brought together top researchers with policy makers and practitioners whose contributions consider the ways in which the global economic order might address the challenges of globalization that have arisen over the last two decades and that have been intensified by the recent crisis.Chapters in this volume consider the critical linkages between issues, including exchange rates, global imbalances, and financial regulation, and plumb the political and economic outcomes of past policies for what they might tell us about the future of global economic cooperation.

The need for careful research on trade policy is particularly acute, and this volume empirically addresses these and many other important issues. The contributors offer studies which integrate the institutional details of current trade policy with creative economic analyses. Marked by a shift from a traditional reliance on simulation models, these papers take their inspiration from recent changes in the assumptions traditionally underlying research in international trade theory. No longer are government policies viewed as being somehow "given" to the researcher; in part 1, "Analyses with a Political Economy Perspective," four papers treat such policies as endogenous and explicable in terms of political economy. Neither are product and factor markets seen as perfectly competitive; instead, the three papers in part 2, "Trade Policy Effects under Imperfectly Competitive Market Conditions," assume that firms consider the actions of other companies when formulating their decisions. In part 3, "A New Measure of Trade Restrictiveness and Estimates of Trade Policy Effects with CGE Models," the first essay explores the quantitative restrictions on cheese to develop and implement a new model of restrictive trade. Two final contributions address problems for which simulation modeling is especially useful. The first considers the effectiveness of an import surcharge in reducing the U.S. trade deficit and the second treats the welfare effects of liberalization in South Korea where increasing returns to scale are significant These innovative studies focus on economic behavior that will provide valuable insights for policymakers, academic economists, and students.

Interest in U.S. trade policy has been stimulated in recent years by the massive American trade deficit, by the belief that intervention by foreign governments in international markets has given other countries a competitive edge over the United States, and by concern about the increase in protectionism among industrial countries. In turn, major analytical developments in international economics have revolutionized trade theory, broadening its scope both by introducing in a more formal manner such concepts as imperfect competition, increasing returns, product differentiation, and learning effects and by including the study of political and economic factors that shape trade policy decisions. This collection of papers—the result of a conference held by the NBER—applies these "new" trade theories to existing world cases and also presents complementary empirical studies that are grounded in more traditional trade theories. The volume is divided into four parts. The papers in part 1 consider the problem of imperfect competition, empirically assessing the economic effect of various trade policies introduced in industries in which the "new" trade theory seems to apply. Those in part 2 isolate the effects of protection from the influences of the many economic changes that accompany actual periods of protection and also examine how the effects from exogenous changes in economic conditions vary with the form of protection. Part 3 provides new empirical evidence on the effect of foreign production by a country's firms on the home country's exports. Finally, in part 4, two key bilateral issues are analyzed: recent U.S.-Japanese trade tensions and the incident involving the threat of the imposition of countervailing duties by the United States on Canadian softwood lumber.

A viable system of international trade requires the active support of both the United States and the European Community, the world's largest trading partners and, consequently, the primary forces shaping the post-World War II international trading regime. In recent years, however, a series of disagreements have threatened the consensus supporting that regime. Differences have arisen over the relation of trade policy to balance-of-trade deficits, the terms of and actual compliance with the current General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and the proper agenda and procedures to be adopted in future multilateral trade negotiations. These differences, if left unresolved, will further weaken an already strained system. Issues in US-EC Trade Relations presents the results of a conference organized by the NBER and the Centre for European Policy Studies. In it, North American and European trade specialists offer theoretical, empirical, and historical analyses of some of the major issues on which American and Community officials disagree and also formulate realistic policies for settling present disputes. Contributors consider such topics as the legal aspects of trade between the two regions, agricultural policy, different ways the United States and members of the European Community use embargoes to attempt to induce foreign countries to change particular political actions, the growing trend toward protectionism and responses to this policy, international trade in services, and trade policy in oligopolistic environments. In most cases, each general subject is approached from both an American and a European perspective.

"Challenges to Globalization" evaluates the arguments of proglobalists and anti-globalists regarding issues such as globalization's relationship to democracy, its impact on the environment and on labor markets and wage levels, and the associated expansion of trade and its effects on prices. The contributors to this volume present surprising findings that often run counter to the claim that multinational firms primarily seek countries with low-wage labor.

The historical relationship between capital and labor has changed radically in the past few decades. One particularly noteworthy development is the rise of shared capitalism, a system in which workers have become partial owners of their firms and thus, in effect, both employees and stockholders. Profit-sharing arrangements and gain-sharing bonuses, which tie compensation directly to a firm's performance, also reflect this new attitude toward labor. "Shared Capitalism at Work" analyzes the effects of this trend on workers and firms. The contributors focus on four main areas: the fraction of firms that participate in shared capitalism programs in the United States and abroad, the factors that enable these firms to overcome classic free rider and risk problems, the effect of shared capitalism on firm performance, and the impact of shared capitalism on worker well-being. This volume provides essential studies for understanding the increasingly important role of shared capitalism in the modern workplace.

As Japan's decade-long economic stagnation continues, there has been much analysis of the immediate macroeconomic problems that confront the Japanese economy. This book looks past the short-run challenges to the future of Japan and highlights the intermediate and longer-term issues that country faces.In this, the first book-length academic treatment of this important issue, a team of notable contributors present nine papers, offering a comprehensive assessment of those economic difficulties and addressing a range of specific issues, from financial restructuring and the impact of the aging Japanese population to corporate behavior, public lending, employment practices, and innovative capacity. In each paper, contributors clearly identify and outline problems and concerns, carefully pose provocative questions, and in many instances present concrete suggestions for improvement.The resulting volume is a timely and important examination of critical issues for Japan's stalling economy, packed with both telling data and expert analysis and offering valuable perspectives on Japan's current obstacles.

In this volume emanating from the National Bureau of Economic Research's programme in international economics, leading economists address recent developments in three important areas. The first section of the book focuses on international comparisons of output and prices, and includes papers that present new measures of product market integration, new methodology to infer relative factor price changes from quantitative data, and an ongoing capital stock measurement project. The next section features articles on international trade, including such significant issues as deterring child labour exploitation in developing countries, exchange rate regimes, and mapping US comparative advantage across various factors. The book concludes with research on multinational corporations and includes a discussion of the long-debated issue of whether growth of production abroad substitutes for or is complementary to production growth at home. The papers in the volume are dedicated to Robert E. Lipsey, who, for more than a half century at the NBER contributed significantly to the broad field of empirical international economics.

This volume provides a critical evaluation of Anna J. Schwartz's work and probes various facets of the immense contribution of her scholarship—How well has it stood the test of time? What critiques have been leveled against it? How has monetary research developed over the years, and how has her influence been manifested? Bordo has collected five conference papers presented by leading monetary scholars, discussants' comments, and closing remarks by Milton Friedman and Karl Brunner. Each of these insightful surveys extends Schwartz's work and makes its own contribution to the fields of monetary history, theory, and policy. The volume also contains a foreword by Martin Feldstein and a selected bibliography of publications by Anna Schwartz.

As awareness of globalization grows, so too does our need to understand it historically. This volume is one of the few to consider globalization in the context of the history of international trade. Its eleven papers explore a synthesized variety of topics, including how the process of globalization can be measured by the long-term integration of markets, what trends and questions develop as markets converge and diverge, what roles technology and geography play, the effect of globalization on inequality and social justice, and the roles of political institutions in responding to such injustices. Ultimately this work provides a panoramic view of globalization, one that will offer much to readers interested in this crucial issue.

The United States is now admitting nearly one million legal immigrants per year, while the flow of illegal aliens into the country continues to increase steadily. The debate over immigration policy has typically focused on three fundamental questions: How do immigrants peform economically relative to others? What effects do immigrants have on the employment opportunities of other workers? What kind of immigration policy is most beneficial to the host country? This authoritative volume represents a move beyond purely descriptive assessments of labour market consequences toward a more fully developed analysis of economic impacts across the social spectrum. Exploring the broader repercussions of immigration on education, welfare, Social Security and crime, as well as the labour market, these papers assess dimensions not yet taken into account by traditional cost-benefit calculations. This collection offers new insights into the kinds of economic opportunties and outcomes that immigrant populations might expect for themselves and future generations.

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and '80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations and propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. Ever since, the immediate cause of the period's rise in inflation has been extensively debated. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on how the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today's global and increasingly complex economic environment.

The rapid development of Pacific Asia over the past twenty years offers an excellent opportunity to analyze the dynamics of economic growth. Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia explores the nature and causes of changes that have occurred in the economic structure of Pacific Asia, the relationship between these changes and economic growth, and the implications of these changes for trading relationships. Themes in the research reported here includes the sectoral composition of output and trade; rates of structural change in production and exports and their relation to economic growth; the effect of abundant resource endowments on industrialization and manufactured exports; the nature of the mix between active government policies and market forces; and the balance between demand-determined and supply-determined industrialization and exports. Many of the issues explored have important implications for United States foreign economic policy, and the volume includes a look at the basic economic and political forces influencing shifts in United States trade policy in the postwar period. A timely and informative analysis, the volume probes the causes and consequences of economic growth in Pacific Asia, focusing on the interaction of exports of manufactured goods and the developmental process. The results reported contribute to ongoing research in structural change and economic policy and will be important to economists working on empirical patters in international trade and the process of economic development.

Since the five largest industrial democracies concluded the Plaza Agreement in 1985, the theory and practice of international economic policy coordination has become the subject of spirited academic and public-policy debate. While some view policy coordination as crucial for the construction of an improved international monetary system, others fear that it risks delaying or weakening the implementation of macroeconomic and structural policies. In these papers and comments, prominent international economists consider past and present interpretations of the meaning of international policy coordination; conditions necessary for coordination to be beneficial both to the direct participants and the global economy; influential factors for the quantitative impact of coordination; obstacles to coordination; the most—and least—effective methods of coordination; and future directions of the coordination process, including processes associated with greater fixity of exchange rates. These studies will be readily accessible to policymakers, while offering sophisticated analyses to interested scholars of the global economy.

The role of the housing market in the recent recession raised questions about similar episodes in economic history. Were the underlying causes of housing and mortgage crises the same in earlier episodes? How have previous policy interventions either damaged or improved long-run market performance and stability? This volume provides context for understanding recent events by examining how historical housing and mortgage markets worked - and how they sometimes failed. The editors survey the research on housing crises, comparing that of the 1930s to that of the 2000s in order to identify what contributed to each crisis.

This volume analyzes the changing economic and demographic environment in which social insurance programs benefiting elderly households will operate. It also explores how these ongoing trends will affect future beneficiaries, under both the current Social Security program and potential reform options. An esteemed group of economists probes the challenge posed to Social Security by an aging population. The researchers examine trends in private sector retirement saving and health care costs, as well as the uncertain nature of future demographic, economic, and social trends - including marriage and divorce rates and female participation in the labor force. Recognizing the ambiguity of the environment in which the Social Security system must operate and evolve, this landmark book explores factors that policy makers must consider in designing policies that are resilient enough to survive in an economically and demographically uncertain society.

The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate measurement. Essays focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that have never been systematically measured before.

Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy", leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system.The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.

Our current social security system operates on a pay-as-you-go basis; benefits are paid almost entirely out of current revenues. As the ratio of retirees to taxpayers increases, concern about the high costs of providing benefits in a pay-as-you-go system has led economists to explore other options. One involves "prefunding", in which a person's withholdings are invested in financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds, the eventual returns from which would fund his or her retirement. The risks such a system would introduce - such as the volatility in the market prices of investment assets - are the focus of this offering from the NBER. Exploring the issues involved in measuring risk and developing models to reflect the risks of various investment-based systems, economists evaluate the magnitude of the risks that both retirees and taxpayers would assume. The insights that emerge show that the risk is actually moderate relative to the improved return, as well as being balanced by the ability of an investment-balanced system to adapt to differences in individual preferences and conditions.

Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system.  Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.

Conventional wisdom once held that the demand for addictive substances like cigarettes, alcohol and drugs was unlike that for any other economic good and, therefore, unresponsive to traditional market forces. Recently, however, researchers from two disparate fields, economics and behavioural psychology, have found that increases in the overall price of an addictive substance can significantly reduce both the number of users and the amounts those users consume. Changes in the "full price" of addictive substances - including monetary value, time outlay, effort to obtain, and potential penalties for illegal use - yield marked variations in behavioural outcomes and demand. This book brings these fields of study together and presents an integrated assessment of their data and results. It should serve as a resource in the debates concerning alcohol and drug use and abuse, and the impacts of legalizing illicit drugs.

The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.

In higher education, the United States is the preeminent global leader, dominating the list of the world's top research universities. But there are signs that America's position of global leadership will face challenges in the future, as it has in other realms of international competition. "American Universities in a Global Market" addresses the variety of issues crucial to understanding this challenge. The book examines the various factors that contributed to America's success in higher education, including openness to people and ideas, generous governmental support, and a tradition of decentralized friendly competition. By discussing the differences in quality among students and institutions around the world, this volume sheds light on the singular aspects of American higher education.

There has been an increase in food price instability in recent years, with varied consequences for farmers, market participants, and consumers. Before policy makers can design schemes to reduce food price uncertainty or ameliorate its effects, they must first understand the factors that have contributed to recent price instability. Does it arise primarily from technological or weather-related supply shocks, or from changes in demand like those induced by the growing use of biofuel? Does financial speculation affect food price volatility? The researchers who contributed to The Economics of Food Price Volatility address these and other questions. They examine the forces driving both recent and historical patterns in food price volatility, as well as the effects of various public policies in affecting this volatility. The chapters include studies of the links between food and energy markets, the impact of biofuel policy on the level and variability of food prices, and the effects of weather-related disruptions in supply. The findings shed light on the way price volatility affects the welfare of farmers, traders, and consumers.

In recent years, the hospital industry has been undergoing massive change and reorganization with technological innovations and the spread of managed care. As a result, the total number of hospitals countrywide has been declining, and a growing number of not-for-profit hospitals have converted to for-profit status. These changes raise two fundamental questions: What determines a hospital's choice of for-profit or not-for-profit organizational form? And how does that form affect patients and society? This volume provides a factual basis for discussing for-profit versus not-for-profit ownership of hospitals and gives a first look at the evidence about new and important issues in the hospital industry. "The Changing Hospital Industry: Comparing Not-for-Profit and For-Profit Institutions" should have significant implications for public policy reforms in this vital industry, and should be of interest to scholars in the fields of health economics, public finance, hospital organization and management; and to health servces researchers.

Americans are living longer - and staying healthier longer - than ever before. Despite the rapid disappearance of pensions and health-care benefits for retirees, older people are healthier and better off than they were twenty years ago. In "Health at Older Ages", a distinguished team of economists analyzes the foundations of disability decline, quantifies this phenomenon in economic terms, and proposes what might be done to accelerate future improvements in the health of our most elderly populations.This breakthrough volume argues that educational attainment, high socioeconomic status, an older retirement age, and accessible medical care have improved the health and quality of life of seniors. Along the way, it outlines the economic benefits of disability decline, such as an increased percentage of seniors in the workplace, relief for the health-care system and care-giving families, and reduced medical expenses for the elderly themselves. "Health at Older Ages" will be an essential contribution to the debate about meeting the medical needs of an aging nation.

The past thirty years have witnessed a transformation of government economic intervention in segments of industry throughout the world. Many industries historically subject to economic price and entry controls have been largely deregulated, including natural gas, airlines, and commercial banking. However, recent concerns about market power in restructured electricity markets, airline industry instability amid chronic financial stress, and the challenges created by the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act have led to calls for renewed market intervention. Economic Regulation and Its Reform collects research that explores these and other issues surrounding government economic intervention, providing an assessment of the economic effects of regulatory reforms over the past three decades and examining how these insights bear on some of today's most significant concerns in regulatory policy.