National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report – serie

The recent recession has brought fiscal policy back to the forefront, with economists and policy makers struggling to reach a consensus on issues like tax rates and government spending. At the heart of the debate are fiscal multipliers, whose size and sensitivity determine the power of such policies to influence economic growth. "Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis" focuses on the effects of fiscal stimuli and increased government spending, with contributions that consider the measurement of the multiplier effect and its size. Further contributions discuss the merits of alternate means of debt reduction through decreased government spending or increased taxes. A final section examines how the short-term political forces driving fiscal policy might be balanced with aspects of the long-term planning governing monetary policy.

Conventional wisdom held that housing prices couldn't fall. But the spectacular boom and bust of the housing market during the first decade of the twenty-first century and millions of foreclosed homeowners have made it clear that housing is no different from any other asset in its ability to climb and crash. Housing and the Financial Crisis looks at what happened to prices and construction both during and after the housing boom in different parts of the American housing market, accounting for why certain areas experienced less volatility than others. It then examines the causes of the boom and bust, including the availability of credit, the perceived risk reduction due to the securitization of mortgages, and the increase in lending from foreign sources. Finally, it examines a range of policies that might address some of the sources of recent instability.

A viable system of international trade requires the active support of both the United States and the European Community, the world's largest trading partners and, consequently, the primary forces shaping the post-World War II international trading regime. In recent years, however, a series of disagreements have threatened the consensus supporting that regime. Differences have arisen over the relation of trade policy to balance-of-trade deficits, the terms of and actual compliance with the current General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and the proper agenda and procedures to be adopted in future multilateral trade negotiations. These differences, if left unresolved, will further weaken an already strained system. Issues in US-EC Trade Relations presents the results of a conference organized by the NBER and the Centre for European Policy Studies. In it, North American and European trade specialists offer theoretical, empirical, and historical analyses of some of the major issues on which American and Community officials disagree and also formulate realistic policies for settling present disputes. Contributors consider such topics as the legal aspects of trade between the two regions, agricultural policy, different ways the United States and members of the European Community use embargoes to attempt to induce foreign countries to change particular political actions, the growing trend toward protectionism and responses to this policy, international trade in services, and trade policy in oligopolistic environments. In most cases, each general subject is approached from both an American and a European perspective.

"Challenges to Globalization" evaluates the arguments of proglobalists and anti-globalists regarding issues such as globalization's relationship to democracy, its impact on the environment and on labor markets and wage levels, and the associated expansion of trade and its effects on prices. The contributors to this volume present surprising findings that often run counter to the claim that multinational firms primarily seek countries with low-wage labor.

The historical relationship between capital and labor has changed radically in the past few decades. One particularly noteworthy development is the rise of shared capitalism, a system in which workers have become partial owners of their firms and thus, in effect, both employees and stockholders. Profit-sharing arrangements and gain-sharing bonuses, which tie compensation directly to a firm's performance, also reflect this new attitude toward labor. "Shared Capitalism at Work" analyzes the effects of this trend on workers and firms. The contributors focus on four main areas: the fraction of firms that participate in shared capitalism programs in the United States and abroad, the factors that enable these firms to overcome classic free rider and risk problems, the effect of shared capitalism on firm performance, and the impact of shared capitalism on worker well-being. This volume provides essential studies for understanding the increasingly important role of shared capitalism in the modern workplace.

As Japan's decade-long economic stagnation continues, there has been much analysis of the immediate macroeconomic problems that confront the Japanese economy. This book looks past the short-run challenges to the future of Japan and highlights the intermediate and longer-term issues that country faces.In this, the first book-length academic treatment of this important issue, a team of notable contributors present nine papers, offering a comprehensive assessment of those economic difficulties and addressing a range of specific issues, from financial restructuring and the impact of the aging Japanese population to corporate behavior, public lending, employment practices, and innovative capacity. In each paper, contributors clearly identify and outline problems and concerns, carefully pose provocative questions, and in many instances present concrete suggestions for improvement.The resulting volume is a timely and important examination of critical issues for Japan's stalling economy, packed with both telling data and expert analysis and offering valuable perspectives on Japan's current obstacles.

As awareness of globalization grows, so too does our need to understand it historically. This volume is one of the few to consider globalization in the context of the history of international trade. Its eleven papers explore a synthesized variety of topics, including how the process of globalization can be measured by the long-term integration of markets, what trends and questions develop as markets converge and diverge, what roles technology and geography play, the effect of globalization on inequality and social justice, and the roles of political institutions in responding to such injustices. Ultimately this work provides a panoramic view of globalization, one that will offer much to readers interested in this crucial issue.

Controlling inflation is among the most important objectives of economic policy. By maintaining price stability, policy makers are able to reduce uncertainty, improve price-monitoring mechanisms, and facilitate more efficient planning and allocation of resources. This volume focuses on understanding the causes of the Great Inflation of the 1970s and '80s, which saw rising inflation in many nations and propelled interest rates across the developing world into the double digits. Ever since, the immediate cause of the period's rise in inflation has been extensively debated. Among the areas of contention are the role of monetary policy in driving inflation and the implications this had both for policy design and for evaluating the performance of those who set the policy. Contributors map monetary policy from the 1960s to the present, shedding light on how the lessons of the Great Inflation were absorbed and applied to today's global and increasingly complex economic environment.

The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate measurement. Essays focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that have never been systematically measured before.

Economic growth, low inflation, and financial stability are among the most important goals of policy makers, and central banks such as the Federal Reserve are key institutions for achieving these goals. In "Asset Prices and Monetary Policy", leading scholars and practitioners probe the interaction of central banks, asset markets, and the general economy to forge a new understanding of the challenges facing policy makers as they manage an increasingly complex economic system.The contributors examine how central bankers determine their policy prescriptions with reference to the fluctuating housing market, the balance of debt and credit, changing beliefs of investors, the level of commodity prices, and other factors. At a time when the public has never been more involved in stocks, retirement funds, and real estate investment, this insightful book will be useful to all those concerned with the current state of the economy.

Our current social security system operates on a pay-as-you-go basis; benefits are paid almost entirely out of current revenues. As the ratio of retirees to taxpayers increases, concern about the high costs of providing benefits in a pay-as-you-go system has led economists to explore other options. One involves "prefunding", in which a person's withholdings are invested in financial instruments, such as stocks and bonds, the eventual returns from which would fund his or her retirement. The risks such a system would introduce - such as the volatility in the market prices of investment assets - are the focus of this offering from the NBER. Exploring the issues involved in measuring risk and developing models to reflect the risks of various investment-based systems, economists evaluate the magnitude of the risks that both retirees and taxpayers would assume. The insights that emerge show that the risk is actually moderate relative to the improved return, as well as being balanced by the ability of an investment-balanced system to adapt to differences in individual preferences and conditions.

Until about twenty years ago, the consensus view on the cause of financial-system distress was fairly simple: a run on one bank could easily turn to a panic involving runs on all banks, destroying some and disrupting the financial system.  Since then, however, a series of events—such as emerging-market debt crises, bond-market meltdowns, and the Long-Term Capital Management episode—has forced a rethinking of the risks facing financial institutions and the tools available to measure and manage these risks. The Risks of Financial Institutions examines the various risks affecting financial institutions and explores a variety of methods to help institutions and regulators more accurately measure and forecast risk. The contributors--from academic institutions, regulatory organizations, and banking--bring a wide range of perspectives and experience to the issue. The result is a volume that points a way forward to greater financial stability and better risk management of financial institutions.

The current account deficit of the United States is more than six percent of its gross domestic product—an all-time high. And the rest of the world, including other G7 countries such as Japan and Germany, must collectively run current account surpluses to finance this deficit. How long can such unevenness between imports and exports be sustained, and what form might their eventual reconciliation take? Putting forth scenarios ranging from a gradual correction to a crash landing for the dollar, G7 Current Account Imbalances brings together economists from around the globe to consider the origins, status, and future of those disparities. An esteemed group of collaborators here examines the role of the bursting of the dot-com bubble, the history of previous episodes of current account adjustments, and the possibility of the Euro surpassing the dollar as the leading international reserve currency. Though there are areas of broad agreement—that the imbalances will ultimately decline and that currency revaluations will be part of the solution—many areas of contention remain regarding both the dangers of imbalances and the possible forms of adjustment. This volume will be of tremendous value to economists, politicians, and business leaders alike as they look to the future of the G7 economies.

In higher education, the United States is the preeminent global leader, dominating the list of the world's top research universities. But there are signs that America's position of global leadership will face challenges in the future, as it has in other realms of international competition. "American Universities in a Global Market" addresses the variety of issues crucial to understanding this challenge. The book examines the various factors that contributed to America's success in higher education, including openness to people and ideas, generous governmental support, and a tradition of decentralized friendly competition. By discussing the differences in quality among students and institutions around the world, this volume sheds light on the singular aspects of American higher education.

There has been an increase in food price instability in recent years, with varied consequences for farmers, market participants, and consumers. Before policy makers can design schemes to reduce food price uncertainty or ameliorate its effects, they must first understand the factors that have contributed to recent price instability. Does it arise primarily from technological or weather-related supply shocks, or from changes in demand like those induced by the growing use of biofuel? Does financial speculation affect food price volatility? The researchers who contributed to The Economics of Food Price Volatility address these and other questions. They examine the forces driving both recent and historical patterns in food price volatility, as well as the effects of various public policies in affecting this volatility. The chapters include studies of the links between food and energy markets, the impact of biofuel policy on the level and variability of food prices, and the effects of weather-related disruptions in supply. The findings shed light on the way price volatility affects the welfare of farmers, traders, and consumers.

In recent years, the hospital industry has been undergoing massive change and reorganization with technological innovations and the spread of managed care. As a result, the total number of hospitals countrywide has been declining, and a growing number of not-for-profit hospitals have converted to for-profit status. These changes raise two fundamental questions: What determines a hospital's choice of for-profit or not-for-profit organizational form? And how does that form affect patients and society? This volume provides a factual basis for discussing for-profit versus not-for-profit ownership of hospitals and gives a first look at the evidence about new and important issues in the hospital industry. "The Changing Hospital Industry: Comparing Not-for-Profit and For-Profit Institutions" should have significant implications for public policy reforms in this vital industry, and should be of interest to scholars in the fields of health economics, public finance, hospital organization and management; and to health servces researchers.

Americans are living longer - and staying healthier longer - than ever before. Despite the rapid disappearance of pensions and health-care benefits for retirees, older people are healthier and better off than they were twenty years ago. In "Health at Older Ages", a distinguished team of economists analyzes the foundations of disability decline, quantifies this phenomenon in economic terms, and proposes what might be done to accelerate future improvements in the health of our most elderly populations.This breakthrough volume argues that educational attainment, high socioeconomic status, an older retirement age, and accessible medical care have improved the health and quality of life of seniors. Along the way, it outlines the economic benefits of disability decline, such as an increased percentage of seniors in the workplace, relief for the health-care system and care-giving families, and reduced medical expenses for the elderly themselves. "Health at Older Ages" will be an essential contribution to the debate about meeting the medical needs of an aging nation.

The past thirty years have witnessed a transformation of government economic intervention in segments of industry throughout the world. Many industries historically subject to economic price and entry controls have been largely deregulated, including natural gas, airlines, and commercial banking. However, recent concerns about market power in restructured electricity markets, airline industry instability amid chronic financial stress, and the challenges created by the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act have led to calls for renewed market intervention. Economic Regulation and Its Reform collects research that explores these and other issues surrounding government economic intervention, providing an assessment of the economic effects of regulatory reforms over the past three decades and examining how these insights bear on some of today's most significant concerns in regulatory policy.

Again and again, Latin America has seen the populist scenario played to an unfortunate end. Upon gaining power, populist governments attempt to revive the economy through massive spending. After an initial recovery, inflation reemerges and the government responds with wage an price controls. Shortages, overvaluation, burgeoning deficits, and capital flight soon precipitate economic crisis, with a subsequent collapse of the populist regime. The lessons of this experience are especially valuable for countries in Eastern Europe, as they face major political and economic decisions. Economists and political scientists from the United States and Latin America detail in this volume how and why such programs go wrong and what leads policymakers to repeatedly adopt these policies despite a history of failure. Authors examine this pattern in Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Nicaragua, and Peru—and show how Colombia managed to avoid it. Despite differences in how each country implemented its policies, the macroeconomic consequences were remarkably similar. Scholars of Latin America will find this work a valuable resource, offering a distinctive macroeconomic perspective on the continuing controversy over the dynamics of populism.

Human Capital in History brings together contributions from leading researchers in economic history, labor economics, the economics of education, and related fields. Building on Claudia Goldin's landmark research on the labor history of the United States, the contributors consider the roles of education and technology in contributing to American economic growth and well-being, the experience of women in the workforce, and how trends in marriage and family affected broader economic outcomes.

The 1990s witnessed several acute currency crises among developing nations that invariably spread to nearby at-risk countries. These episodes - in Mexico, Thailand, South Korea, Russia and Brazil - were all exacerbated by speculative foreign investments and high-volume movements in capital in and out of those countries. Insufficient domestic controls and a sluggish international response further undermined these economies, as well as the credibility of external oversight agencies like the International Monetary Fund. This volume examines the correlation between volatile capital mobility, currency instability, and the threat of regional contagion, focusing particular attention on the emergent economies of Latin America, Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe. Together these studies offer a new understanding of the empirical relationship between capital flows, international trade and economic performance, and also afford key insights into realms of major policy concern.

Economists and policymakers are still trying to understand the lessons of recent financial crises in emerging markets. In this volume, academics, public officials and economists explore the causes of and effective policy responses to international currency crises. Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion, the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector, capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption and large players.

The recent financial crisis had a profound effect on both public and private universities, which faced shrinking endowments, declining charitable contributions, and reductions in government support. Universities responded to these stresses in different ways. This volume presents new evidence on the nature of these responses and how the incentives and constraints facing different institutions affected their behavior. The contributors look at the role of endowments in university finances and the interaction of spending policies, asset allocation strategies, and investment opportunities to show how universities' behavior can be modeled using economic principles.

Since the early 1980s, the US economy has experienced a growing wage differential: high-skilled workers have claimed an increasing share of available income, while low-skilled workers have seen an absolute decline in real wages. How and why this disparity has arisen is a matter of ongoing debate among policymakers and economists. Two competing theories have emerged to explain this phenomenon, one focusing on international trade and labour market globalization as the driving force behind the devaluation of low-skill jobs, and the other focusing on the role of technological change as a catalyst for the escalation of high-skill wages. This collection brings together innovative new ideas and data sources in order to provide more satisfying alternatives to the trade versus technology debate and to assess directly the specific impact of international trade on US wages. This volume offers a thorough appraisal of the wage distribution predicament, examining the continued effects of technology and globalization on the labour market.

In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in world trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise - the loss of jobs, for example - others have highlighted the benefits of less expensive goods and services purchased by U.S. consumers along with new market and investment opportunities for U.S. firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, "China's Growing Role in World Trade" undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment.This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories eliminates a number of misconceptions, overturns some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of issues related to China's trade.

In less than three decades, China has grown from playing a negligible role in international trade to being one of the world's largest exporters, a substantial importer of raw materials, intermediate outputs, and other goods, and both a recipient and source of foreign investment. Not surprisingly, China's economic dynamism has generated considerable attention and concern in the United States and beyond. While some analysts have warned of the potential pitfalls of China's rise - the loss of jobs, for example - others have highlighted the benefits of new market and investment opportunities for US firms. Bringing together an expert group of contributors, "China's Growing Role in World Trade" undertakes an empirical investigation of the effects of China's new status. The essays collected here provide detailed analyses of the microstructure of trade, the macroeconomic implications, sector-level issues, and foreign direct investment.This volume's careful examination of micro data in light of established economic theories clarifies a number of misconceptions, disproves some conventional wisdom, and documents data patterns that enhance our understanding of China's trade and what it may mean to the rest of the world.

The American economy in the 1980s was characterized by a lowering of personal taxes and inflation, spiraling government debt, decreased spending on domestic programmes, and the sharpest post-World War II recession, followed by nearly eight years of strong economic growth. In this study, policymakers in the Reagan administration and academics offer a view of how and why economic policy in the 1980s developed the way it did. The author comments on aspects of policy with which he was closely involved as chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers (1982-1984): monetary and exchange rate policy, tax policy and budget issues. Feldstein offers his judgments on these policies and illuminates the policy strategies of the 1980s. The following 11 chapters deal with a variety of domestic and international issues, including developments in regulation and antitrust, as well as monetary, trade, tax and budget policies.

Recent changes in technology, along with the opening up of many regions previously closed to investment, have led to explosive growth in the international movement of capital. Flows from foreign direct investment and debt and equity financing can bring countries substantial gains by augmenting local savings, and by improving technology and incentives. Investing companies acquire market access, lower cost inputs and opportunities for profitable introductions of production methods in the countries where they invest. But, as was underscored recently by the economic and financial crises in several Asian countries, capital flows can also bring risks. Although there is no simple explanation of the currency crisis in Asia, it is clear that fixed exchange rates and chronic deficits increased the likelihood of a breakdown. Similarly, during the 1970s, the United States and other industrial countries loaned OPEC surpluses to borrowers in Latin America. But when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates to control soaring inflation, the result was a widespread debt moratorium in Latin America as many countries throughout the region struggled to pay the high interest on their foreign loans.This work contains recent work by scholars and practitioners on the experience of capital flows to Latin America, Asia and Eastern Europe. The papers discuss the role of banks, equity markets and foreign direct investment in international capital flows, and the risks that investors and others face with these transactions. By focusing on capital flows' productivity and determinants, and the policy issues they raise, this collection should prove a useful resource for economists, policymakers and financial market participants.

Social security is the largest and perhaps the most popular program run by the federal government. Given the projected increase in both individual life expectancy and sheer number of retirees, however, the current system faces an eventual overload. Alternative proposals have emerged, ranging from reductions in future benefits to a rise in taxrevenue to various forms of investment-based personal retirement accounts.As this volume suggests, the distributional consequences of these proposals are substantially different and may disproportionately affect those groups who depend on social security to avoid poverty in old age. Together, these studies persuasively show that appropriately designed investment-based social security reforms can effectively reduce the long-term burden of an aging society on future taxpayers, increase the expected future income of retirees, and mitigate poverty rates among the elderly.