Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics – författare

Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often constrained by lack of adequate resources, sound policies, and national support. It is clear that change and advancements, both systematic and scientific, are needed in a number of forensic science disciplines to ensure the reliability of work, establish enforceable standards, and promote best practices with consistent application. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward provides a detailed plan for addressing these needs and suggests the creation of a new government entity, the National Institute of Forensic Science, to establish and enforce standards within the forensic science community.

The benefits of improving and regulating the forensic science disciplines are clear: assisting law enforcement officials, enhancing homeland security, and reducing the risk of wrongful conviction and exoneration. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States gives a full account of what is needed to advance the forensic science disciplines, including upgrading of systems and organizational structures, better training, widespread adoption of uniform and enforceable best practices, and mandatory certification and accreditation programs.

While this book provides an essential call-to-action for congress and policy makers, it also serves as a vital tool for law enforcement agencies, criminal prosecutors and attorneys, and forensic science educators.

Scores of talented and dedicated people serve the forensic science community, performing vitally important work. However, they are often constrained by lack of adequate resources, sound policies, and national support. It is clear that change and advancements, both systematic and scientific, are needed in a number of forensic science disciplines to ensure the reliability of work, establish enforceable standards, and promote best practices with consistent application. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward provides a detailed plan for addressing these needs and suggests the creation of a new government entity, the National Institute of Forensic Science, to establish and enforce standards within the forensic science community.

The benefits of improving and regulating the forensic science disciplines are clear: assisting law enforcement officials, enhancing homeland security, and reducing the risk of wrongful conviction and exoneration. Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States gives a full account of what is needed to advance the forensic science disciplines, including upgrading of systems and organizational structures, better training, widespread adoption of uniform and enforceable best practices, and mandatory certification and accreditation programs.

While this book provides an essential call-to-action for congress and policy makers, it also serves as a vital tool for law enforcement agencies, criminal prosecutors and attorneys, and forensic science educators.

Steps Toward Large-Scale Data Integration in the Sciences summarizes a National Research Council (NRC) workshop to identify some of the major challenges that hinder large-scale data integration in the sciences and some of the technologies that could lead to solutions. The workshop was held August 19-20, 2009, in Washington, D.C. The workshop examined a collection of scientific research domains, with application experts explaining the issues in their disciplines and current best practices. This approach allowed the participants to gain insights about both commonalities and differences in the data integration challenges facing the various communities. In addition to hearing from research domain experts, the workshop also featured experts working on the cutting edge of techniques for handling data integration problems. This provided participants with insights on the current state of the art. The goals were to identify areas in which the emerging needs of research communities are not being addressed and to point to opportunities for addressing these needs through closer engagement between the affected communities and cutting-edge computer science.

Steps Toward Large-Scale Data Integration in the Sciences summarizes a National Research Council (NRC) workshop to identify some of the major challenges that hinder large-scale data integration in the sciences and some of the technologies that could lead to solutions. The workshop was held August 19-20, 2009, in Washington, D.C. The workshop examined a collection of scientific research domains, with application experts explaining the issues in their disciplines and current best practices. This approach allowed the participants to gain insights about both commonalities and differences in the data integration challenges facing the various communities. In addition to hearing from research domain experts, the workshop also featured experts working on the cutting edge of techniques for handling data integration problems. This provided participants with insights on the current state of the art. The goals were to identify areas in which the emerging needs of research communities are not being addressed and to point to opportunities for addressing these needs through closer engagement between the affected communities and cutting-edge computer science.

Recent rough estimates are that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) spends at least $38 billion a year on the research, development, testing, and evaluation of new defense systems; approximately 40 percent of that cost-at least $16 billion-is spent on software development and testing. There is widespread understanding within DoD that the effectiveness of software-intensive defense systems is often hampered by low-quality software as well as increased costs and late delivery of software components. Given the costs involved, even relatively incremental improvements to the software development process for defense systems could represent a large savings in funds. And given the importance of producing defense software that will carry out its intended function, relatively small improvements to the quality of defense software systems would be extremely important to identify. DoD software engineers and test and evaluation officials may not be fully aware of a range of available techniques, because of both the recent development of these techniques and their origination from an orientation somewhat removed from software engineering, i.e., from a statistical perspective. The panel''s charge therefore was to convene a workshop to identify statistical software engineering techniques that could have applicability to DoD systems in development.

Data mining of massive data sets is transforming the way we think about crisis response, marketing, entertainment, cybersecurity and national intelligence. Collections of documents, images, videos, and networks are being thought of not merely as bit strings to be stored, indexed, and retrieved, but as potential sources of discovery and knowledge, requiring sophisticated analysis techniques that go far beyond classical indexing and keyword counting, aiming to find relational and semantic interpretations of the phenomena underlying the data.

Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis examines the frontier of analyzing massive amounts of data, whether in a static database or streaming through a system. Data at that scale—terabytes and petabytes—is increasingly common in science (e.g., particle physics, remote sensing, genomics), Internet commerce, business analytics, national security, communications, and elsewhere. The tools that work to infer knowledge from data at smaller scales do not necessarily work, or work well, at such massive scale. New tools, skills, and approaches are necessary, and this report identifies many of them, plus promising research directions to explore. Frontiers in Massive Data Analysis discusses pitfalls in trying to infer knowledge from massive data, and it characterizes seven major classes of computation that are common in the analysis of massive data. Overall, this report illustrates the cross-disciplinary knowledge—from computer science, statistics, machine learning, and application disciplines—that must be brought to bear to make useful inferences from massive data.

As the availability of high-throughput data-collection technologies, such as information-sensing mobile devices, remote sensing, internet log records, and wireless sensor networks has grown, science, engineering, and business have rapidly transitioned from striving to develop information from scant data to a situation in which the challenge is now that the amount of information exceeds a human''s ability to examine, let alone absorb, it. Data sets are increasingly complex, and this potentially increases the problems associated with such concerns as missing information and other quality concerns, data heterogeneity, and differing data formats.

The nation''s ability to make use of data depends heavily on the availability of a workforce that is properly trained and ready to tackle high-need areas. Training students to be capable in exploiting big data requires experience with statistical analysis, machine learning, and computational infrastructure that permits the real problems associated with massive data to be revealed and, ultimately, addressed. Analysis of big data requires cross-disciplinary skills, including the ability to make modeling decisions while balancing trade-offs between optimization and approximation, all while being attentive to useful metrics and system robustness. To develop those skills in students, it is important to identify whom to teach, that is, the educational background, experience, and characteristics of a prospective data-science student; what to teach, that is, the technical and practical content that should be taught to the student; and how to teach, that is, the structure and organization of a data-science program.

Training Students to Extract Value from Big Data summarizes a workshop convened in April 2014 by the National Research Council''s Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics to explore how best to train students to use big data. The workshop explored the need for training and curricula and coursework that should be included. One impetus for the workshop was the current fragmented view of what is meant by analysis of big data, data analytics, or data science. New graduate programs are introduced regularly, and they have their own notions of what is meant by those terms and, most important, of what students need to know to be proficient in data-intensive work. This report provides a variety of perspectives about those elements and about their integration into courses and curricula.

The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is responsible for the stewardship of the nation''s living marine resources and their habitat. As part of this charge, NMFS conducts stock assessments of the abundance and composition of fish stocks in several bodies of water. At present, stock assessments rely heavily on human data-gathering and analysis. Automatic means of fish stock assessments are appealing because they offer the potential to improve efficiency and reduce human workload and perhaps develop higher-fidelity measurements. The use of images and video, when accompanies by appropriate statistical analyses of the inferred data, is of increasing importance for estimating the abundance of species and their age distributions.

Robust Methods for the Analysis of Images and Videos for Fisheries Stock Assessment is the summary of a workshop convened by the National Research Council Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics to discuss analysis techniques for images and videos for fisheries stock assessment. Experts from diverse communities shared perspective about the most efficient path toward improved automation of visual information and discussed both near-term and long-term goals that can be achieved through research and development efforts. This report is a record of the presentations and discussions of this event.

Questions about the reproducibility of scientific research have been raised in numerous settings and have gained visibility through several high-profile journal and popular press articles. Quantitative issues contributing to reproducibility challenges have been considered (including improper data measurement and analysis, inadequate statistical expertise, and incomplete data, among others), but there is no clear consensus on how best to approach or to minimize these problems.

A lack of reproducibility of scientific results has created some distrust in scientific findings among the general public, scientists, funding agencies, and industries. While studies fail for a variety of reasons, many factors contribute to the lack of perfect reproducibility, including insufficient training in experimental design, misaligned incentives for publication and the implications for university tenure, intentional manipulation, poor data management and analysis, and inadequate instances of statistical inference.

The workshop summarized in this report was designed not to address the social and experimental challenges but instead to focus on the latter issues of improper data management and analysis, inadequate statistical expertise, incomplete data, and difficulties applying sound statistic inference to the available data. Many efforts have emerged over recent years to draw attention to and improve reproducibility of scientific work. This report uniquely focuses on the statistical perspective of three issues: the extent of reproducibility, the causes of reproducibility failures, and the potential remedies for these failures.

The Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Personnel & Readiness), referred to throughout this report as P&R, is responsible for the total force management of all Department of Defense (DoD) components including the recruitment, readiness, and retention of personnel. Its work and policies are supported by a number of organizations both within DoD, including the Defense Manpower Data Center (DMDC), and externally, including the federally funded research and development centers (FFRDCs) that work for DoD. P&R must be able to answer questions for the Secretary of Defense such as how to recruit people with an aptitude for and interest in various specialties and along particular career tracks and how to assess on an ongoing basis service members'' career satisfaction and their ability to meet new challenges. P&R must also address larger-scale questions, such as how the current realignment of forces to the Asia-Pacific area and other regions will affect recruitment, readiness, and retention.

While DoD makes use of large-scale data and mathematical analysis in intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and elsewhere—exploiting techniques such as complex network analysis, machine learning, streaming social media analysis, and anomaly detection—these skills and capabilities have not been applied as well to the personnel and readiness enterprise. Strengthening Data Science Methods for Department of Defense Personnel and Readiness Missions offers and roadmap and implementation plan for the integration of data analysis in support of decisions within the purview of P&R.

The concept of utilizing big data to enable scientific discovery has generated tremendous excitement and investment from both private and public sectors over the past decade, and expectations continue to grow. Using big data analytics to identify complex patterns hidden inside volumes of data that have never been combined could accelerate the rate of scientific discovery and lead to the development of beneficial technologies and products. However, producing actionable scientific knowledge from such large, complex data sets requires statistical models that produce reliable inferences (NRC, 2013). Without careful consideration of the suitability of both available data and the statistical models applied, analysis of big data may result in misleading correlations and false discoveries, which can potentially undermine confidence in scientific research if the results are not reproducible. In June 2016 the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop to examine critical challenges and opportunities in performing scientific inference reliably when working with big data. Participants explored new methodologic developments that hold significant promise and potential research program areas for the future. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

Data science is emerging as a field that is revolutionizing science and industries alike. Work across nearly all domains is becoming more data driven, affecting both the jobs that are available and the skills that are required. As more data and ways of analyzing them become available, more aspects of the economy, society, and daily life will become dependent on data. It is imperative that educators, administrators, and students begin today to consider how to best prepare for and keep pace with this data-driven era of tomorrow. Undergraduate teaching, in particular, offers a critical link in offering more data science exposure to students and expanding the supply of data science talent.

Data Science for Undergraduates: Opportunities and Options offers a vision for the emerging discipline of data science at the undergraduate level. This report outlines some considerations and approaches for academic institutions and others in the broader data science communities to help guide the ongoing transformation of this field.

On January 30-31, 2019 the Board on Mathematical Sciences and Analytics, in collaboration with the Board on Energy and Environmental Systems and the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board, convened a workshop in Washington, D.C. to explore the frontiers of mathematics and data science needs for sustainable urban communities. The workshop strengthened the emerging interdisciplinary network of practitioners, business leaders, government officials, nonprofit stakeholders, academics, and policy makers using data, modeling, and simulation for urban and community sustainability, and addressed common challenges that the community faces. Presentations highlighted urban sustainability research efforts and programs under way, including research into air quality, water management, waste disposal, and social equity and discussed promising urban sustainability research questions that improved use of big data, modeling, and simulation can help address. This publication summarizes the presentation and discussion of the workshop.

Recent rough estimates are that the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) spends at least $38 billion a year on the research, development, testing, and evaluation of new defense systems; approximately 40 percent of that cost-at least $16 billion-is spent on software development and testing. There is widespread understanding within DoD that the effectiveness of software-intensive defense systems is often hampered by low-quality software as well as increased costs and late delivery of software components. Given the costs involved, even relatively incremental improvements to the software development process for defense systems could represent a large savings in funds. And given the importance of producing defense software that will carry out its intended function, relatively small improvements to the quality of defense software systems would be extremely important to identify. DoD software engineers and test and evaluation officials may not be fully aware of a range of available techniques, because of both the recent development of these techniques and their origination from an orientation somewhat removed from software engineering, i.e., from a statistical perspective. The panel''s charge therefore was to convene a workshop to identify statistical software engineering techniques that could have applicability to DoD systems in development.

This book examines how the discipline of statistics should respond to the changing environment in which statisticians work. What does the academic, industry, and government customer need? How can the content of courses and of the overall statistics educational experience be arranged to address the customer''s needs? Interdisciplinary needs are described, and successful university programs in interdisciplinary statistics are detailed.

Massive data streams, large quantities of data that arrive continuously, are becoming increasingly commonplace in many areas of science and technology. Consequently development of analytical methods for such streams is of growing importance. To address this issue, the National Security Agency asked the NRC to hold a workshop to explore methods for analysis of streams of data so as to stimulate progress in the field. This report presents the results of that workshop. It provides presentations that focused on five different research areas where massive data streams are present: atmospheric and meteorological data; high-energy physics; integrated data systems; network traffic; and mining commercial data streams. The goals of the report are to improve communication among researchers in the field and to increase relevant statistical science activity.

Biomedical research results in the collection and storage of increasingly large and complex data sets. Preserving those data so that they are discoverable, accessible, and interpretable accelerates scientific discovery and improves health outcomes, but requires that researchers, data curators, and data archivists consider the long-term disposition of data and the costs of preserving, archiving, and promoting access to them.

Life Cycle Decisions for Biomedical Data examines and assesses approaches and considerations for forecasting costs for preserving, archiving, and promoting access to biomedical research data. This report provides a comprehensive conceptual framework for cost-effective decision making that encourages data accessibility and reuse for researchers, data managers, data archivists, data scientists, and institutions that support platforms that enable biomedical research data preservation, discoverability, and use.

Biomedical research data sets are becoming larger and more complex, and computing capabilities are expanding to enable transformative scientific results. The National Institutes of Health''s (NIH''s) National Library of Medicine (NLM) has the unique role of ensuring that biomedical research data are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable in an ethical manner. Tools that forecast the costs of long-term data preservation could be useful as the cost to curate and manage these data in meaningful ways continues to increase, as could stewardship to assess and maintain data that have future value.

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine convened a workshop on July 11-12, 2019 to gather insight and information in order to develop and demonstrate a framework for forecasting long-term costs for preserving, archiving, and accessing biomedical data. Presenters and attendees discussed tools and practices that NLM could use to help researchers and funders better integrate risk management practices and considerations into data preservation, archiving, and accessing decisions; methods to encourage NIH-funded researchers to consider, update, and track lifetime data; and burdens on the academic researchers and industry staff to implement these tools, methods, and practices. This publication summarizes the presentations and discussion of the workshop.